Arpege - Nope. Precip is from Wales down to around Southampton/Portsmouth way and is a wintry mix FWIW.

UKV - Nope. Precip is similar to Arpege but touch more extensive, more snowy and perhaps a touch further east towards Worthing.

ECM - Nope (I think, the 3 hour interval doesn't help) . Precip extent similar to Arpege/UKV, ECM has more rain than snow. 

GFS - Possibly. Precip is further east than the 3 models above albeit it's a snow/rain mix by the looks. The 3 hour interval masks it crossing MBY but would expect to see some flakes at least, even if accompanied by rain. 

GEM - Nope. Probably closest to UKV in area and extent but shows as all snow (usually GEM caveat about being biased towards always snow).

ICON - Nope. Similar to Arpege/UKV and showing a wintry mix. 

So all in all I won't be getting my hopes up as currently looks all too far west for me. Hopefully for those in the more likely corridor, it's more snow than rain/sleet and folks get a dusting at least. 

In terms of the GFS 6z ops take on the longer term it's mixed - relatively benign breakdown, a short mild and unsettled interlude followed by a briefish reload of the cold, in turn followed by a not overly warm zonal period with HP further east blocking LPs from making progress through Scandinavia. Could be better, could be worse but would probably bring a bit more snow to some at times and the second zonal/unsettled stuff involves chilly enough air that there could be some wintry stuff almost anywhere albeit settling snow unlikely away from higher ground further north. 

72H

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=72&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

180H

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=180&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

If feels like the prelude to a decent cold spell out there today!

All very interesting to see when it feels like we're usually subjected to downgrades. Could the models again be struggling with blocking? 

* Image/evidence available on TWO, still haven't worked out how to paste them into posts. 

(Made it to the Hebrides. Wonderful drive through the highlands yesterday. Picture postcard stuff...frozen lochs, Hoare frosts, sunshine and -4c at midday!)

Must admit I thought the longer term on the 6z set was milder than the 00z set, particularly period 9-12th Jan. Deep FI looks broadly the same.

6z:

00z:-

And on the image front, for TWO charts at least, it's right click on the image, copy image link and then paste that in to the link on the insert an image option when you're posting. You can use the preview option to check it's working, saves any random posting of nonsense (which is a handy feature from experience 😂)

Thanks very much for your help Dave, I'll give it a go. 👍

So far as the GEFS is concerned, I'm most intrigued right now by the gradual flattening of the midterm mild hump. That's really as far as I'm looking,  though I agree with your analysis regarding the midterm/long-term. 

I'd just like to also thank yourself and some of the other levelheaded southern contingent for your recent input. It can't be easy offering up insights when it's so bloody difficult to get cold into the southeast, let alone snow!*

* I live in the relative snow desert that is North Northants, so I share your pain! 

Quite a turnaround for here with not going above -4C while yesterday was 0C.  Staying cold and unsettled with 2 days dry severe frosts over the weekend after the snow spike on Friday, likely Cheshire Gap.  Need a decent snow cover on Friday to allow very low overnight temps at the weekend.

The UKMO 12z also delays any breakdown of the cold to beyond +144 (as far as it goes so far).

'messy' and 'chilly'

In the past ECM used to be a party pooper and always destroyed past cold spells attempts when all other models was showing. This time opposite as now other models are following ECM direction.  Need this to be full house if ECM 12z to carry on showing the very unsettled deep cold spell in a right timing of the year.

Definitely a trend towards messy troughs disrupting and meandering across the UK in the second week of Jan.

That's the first nail in the coffin for any snow Brian - you only need the polar bears of doom to seal the deal!

Could get a Jan  1987 set up eventually  from this type of  instability..that came  up at short notice  ...

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/sw.jpg 

Nope!