The Weather Outlook

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NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
23 October 2025 07:32:53

Al the heavy rain went through yesterday evening  and (unless I dreamt it) a rumble of thunder about 4am. This morning a bit wet and a bit windy but not the stuff of which warnings are made. It's all very well the MetO putting out speculative warnings as they'll get castigated if a storm blows up and creates unexpected damage, but at the moment they are biased in the other direction, crying wolf.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

But they can still add Benjamin to a list of storms to parade in due course. I suppose the hunt will be on this morning for examples of local effects of Benjamin in Britain. Suitable waves will be a non starter on the South Coast, so trees and blocked drains the next opportunities perhaps to feed the narrative. I'm being too cynical perhaps.

Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Retron
23 October 2025 07:46:42

But they can still add Benjamin to a list of storms to parade in due course. I suppose the hunt will be on this morning for examples of local effects of Benjamin in Britain. Suitable waves will be a non starter on the South Coast, so trees and blocked drains the next opportunities perhaps to feed the narrative. I'm being too cynical perhaps.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Plenty of surface water flooding around here this morning, due to un-cleansed drains and an inch of rain falling in 2 hours overnight. And the usual accidents on the M2 and A249...

Leysdown, north Kent
Windy Willow
23 October 2025 07:55:28
It's been raining since 23:00 and still raining now. It's fairly breezy too but nowt out of the ordinary for these parts. The trees on the green are having a good ole sway and they have all dropped a lot of leaves. The winds are supposed to start easing off from now so it's not been too harsh in this part of the East Midlands. 
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

When I saw corruption, I was forced to find truth on my own. I couldn't swallow the hypocrisy.

Barry White

It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine) - R.E.M.

AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
23 October 2025 08:02:09

Thankfully latest GFS is not too bad.  Compared to the morning runs, a huge downgrade for winds.  Not even sure a yellow warning is warranted now.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

It appears that the traditional scepticism about dartboard lows shown on the GFS has been validated again, with GFS finally getting an accurate forecast 6 hours before the event. As Darren said, 1-0 to the Met Office vs GFS.

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.

Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl

MRazzell
23 October 2025 09:57:15
Wet and breezy, the odd 40mph gust but nothing notable here. 

We had 40mm fall overnight which added to the 50mm+ we had on monday is pretty respectable from a rainfall perspective.

I won't be too harsh on the Met, it looked like a tricky one to forcast accurately.

Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
idj20
23 October 2025 10:05:22
Thankfully the worst of last nights onshore wind stayed mostly out to sea/French coast and I'm currently being sheltered by the current NW wind here at my south-coast facing location. Rather wet at 8 mm so far this morning and 17 mm yesterday but again not what I would call exceptional stuff. 
Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Retron
23 October 2025 10:10:32

It appears that the traditional scepticism about dartboard lows shown on the GFS has been validated again, with GFS finally getting an accurate forecast 6 hours before the event. As Darren said, 1-0 to the Met Office vs GFS.

Originally Posted by: AJ* 

The 0z GFS toned it down to 53, the MetO ended up at 47. And the peak gust a few miles along the coast (at the yacht club) so far is 54, but generally gusting into the mid to high 40s. The site is, obviously, about as exposed as it's possible to be, being right at the edge of the North Sea!

Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 October 2025 15:43:26
A 'reverse Fish' storm.

In 1987, Michael Fish had been briefed to present the storm which eventually devastated S England as traversing N France, instead of which it came here. Storm Benjamin has gone the other way, instead of damaging England, there have been gusts of 100mph along the north French coast.

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Retron
23 October 2025 16:19:30

A 'reverse Fish' storm.

In 1987, Michael Fish had been briefed to present the storm which eventually devastated S England as traversing N France, instead of which it came here. Storm Benjamin has gone the other way, instead of damaging England, there have been gusts of 100mph along the north French coast.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

And in 1987 the French Arpege got it spot on, but the Met Office discounted it as they thought it unlikely. That event would have inspired the development of ensemble forecasting, which started in 1992 (at the ECMWF). To this day I tend to look at AROME (high-res Arpege) when strong winds are in the offing.

This time around the Met Office's ensembles had some members showing a hit by stronger winds (as per the warning the other day, which said something like a very small chance of 75mph winds), but the majority - which they went with - kept the worst away.

Sometimes you win at nature's roulette wheel, and today was one such occasion. 

Leysdown, north Kent

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