Is it too soon to say I'm already fed up of this Autumn? 🤣

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2025-10-23 

Aside from the 5-6 hours of 75mph gusts hitting the Lincolnshire and NW Norfolk coasts and the swathe of gale force gusts through Norfolk and Suffolk on Thursday morning? 😉

GFS has something similar but the timing is a little different and the gusts are less intense across those coastal areas.

As always, we won’t know the details for a while yet. The extent of the deepening and the rate of movement west to east are not resolved yet.

The TWO forecast looks a bit lively for us here on Thursday! We are in the middle of installing a new shower unit. Fortunately we have got most of the big walling-panel stuff in and up today. There's an enormous Lime tree on the Green near - west of our cars. Might move them. The shower panels go in tomorrow - today maybe if all goes well. 🚿 Fingers crossed.

Same here, typically. 😂

I remember when we had our bathroom changed and the guys manhandling the large glass shower panels; fortunately not a windy day.

We had a large dead tree come down about 10 days ago. Fortunately it fell on a very sturdy branch of the willow tree about 5 metres away, otherwise it would have taken out half the fence. Turned out it was being held up by the very old, thick ivy wrapped around it; no root structure of any kind at its base…

There's still a huge difference between the models down here at least. The 0z GFS, for example, has a bout of 60+ mph winds in the early hours tomorrow, then another battering of 60+ in the early afternoon, with temperatures falling to just 5C at 10 AM as the rain sets in! (FWIW, the last time it was 5C here at any time of day or night was in late May).

MetO, on the other hand, has winds peaking at "just" 42mph, and temperatures hovering between 10 and 11 all day.

I suspect  MetO will be closer to the mark (I mean 5C in late morning, really?), but I wouldn't be surprised if the winds creep up into the low 50s.

06z seems to ramp up the winds tomorrow. lets hope its wrong. would warrant an amber.  at least the heaviest rain tonight looks to be passing west of london. 

While bearing in mind Darren's comment about the difference between the MetO and GFS, I'm still preparing for the possibility of 60mph gusts and making sure there's nothing in the garden that might blow away, especially as I'm much more exposed to northerly winds than to SW-erly winds. It will be interesting to see this evening's updated forecasts. 

 I have tree cover for a north westerly, though not a direct northerly or nor easter (which are very rare, let alone gale force!)

The MetO have a warning out for rain covering virtually all to the SE of a line from Yorkshire to Bristol for tomorrow. Undoubtedly there will be some rain in C England, but the worst shown on their own map is confined to the Channel coast (and N France) and E Anglian coast. Perhaps they should shrink the warning area.

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map 

Time to start my storm scoring system for the winter, I think - down here it's now 1-0 to the Met Office (vs the GFS), as the MetO didn't go for strong winds in the early hours. Even as late as yesterday lunchtime GFS was still showing winds in the 60s right now, when in reality they're gusting in the mid 20s on the coast and even less where I am (half a mile inland).

This afternoon GFS still has 62 while the MetO raw has gone from 41 last night to 47 this morning. This is typical of the MetO raw, which always seems to undercook very windy spells, but not as much as GFS overcooks them!

Yes think this one was overcooked for here perhaps. Better that way no doubt. Still a chance for a blast of NW gale force winds but...