The Weather Outlook

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Gavin D
  • Gavin D
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 October 2025 09:46:49
Storm Amy has been named, with strong winds and heavy rain expected later on Friday and into Saturday.

No warnings have been issued as yet, but they won't be far away.

Gavin D
  • Gavin D
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Brian Gaze
01 October 2025 10:08:51
What criteria have been applied here? I was under the impression the disturbance would keep its tropical cyclone name. Is that not the case because it is phasing with another Atlantic disturbance?
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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johncs2016
01 October 2025 12:36:59
How interesting.

There has been a lot of talk in the media recently about possible impacts from ex-Hurricane Humberto or ex-Hurricane Imelda at around that time but I can see that our upcoming storm isn't really connected to that otherwise it would have been known as Storm Humberto or Storm Imelda as ex-Hurricanes and other storms which were previously named under different systems always retain that original name. However, it wasn't until I read a recent article on NW's site which went into the fact that it is actually a separate low pressure system forming ahead of those two ex-hurricanes, which will be impacting us and so it is because this is a completely separate system altogether that the Met Office were able to officially name it as Storm Amy as they have now done.

I can see at the moment that there are only yellow warnings for wind and rain associated with that but given that the Met Office have taken the decision to officially name this particular storm, I would expect at least one of those warning to be upgraded to amber closer to the actual time frame.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Brian Gaze
01 October 2025 13:16:37
You are absolutely right John. ☝️ It's clear on this video.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

The Beast from the East
01 October 2025 16:38:24
I'm no expert but surely Umberto has just merged with this new system? Amy wouldnt have this strength without Umberto blasting through the backdoor?


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Brian Gaze
01 October 2025 16:44:03

I'm no expert but surely Umberto has just merged with this new system? Amy wouldnt have this strength without Umberto blasting through the backdoor?

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I thought that initially, but I think it's clear that's not the case if you watch the video I posted. Amy forms ahead of Humberto. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 October 2025 06:09:45
I beg to differ. Humberto certainly loses its identity as a discrete storm, but not before it has injected a lot of warmth and moisture into a previously flabby N Atlantic area of LP which promptly fires up into storm Amy. 

That's how I see the video and it's backed up by the fax charts,


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Crepuscular Ray
02 October 2025 06:31:50
Whatever the physics are, 6 inches of rain and 80 mph winds make for a rough few days over western Scotland. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to Amber
Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Crepuscular Ray
02 October 2025 12:03:26
Warnings upgraded to Amber in NW Scotland
Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Crepuscular Ray
03 October 2025 10:39:53
Main rain has just about reached us with the odd spot and growing quite gloomy.

The gale force winds are expected from 5pm


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Chunky Pea
03 October 2025 12:17:46
Making some noise here now. Forecast to peak around 3pm or 4pm. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

scillydave
03 October 2025 12:25:48
A much wetter day here than yesterday's forecast promised. It's really thoroughly miserable - by far the worst day weather wise that we've had for many months.

No real wind to speak of yet but the forecast is for it to pick up here this evening. 


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Hippydave
03 October 2025 19:53:01
Obviously not the main story from Amy, but it is amusingly mild here - currently 16.7c, drizzling and breezy. Could be quite a fun temp drop when tomorrow's cold front moves through. 

Looking at the XC obs map, there's a 96mph at Tiree wind wise, so a touch breezy (appreciate it's a coastal NW part of the UK but if that happened down here it'd be carnage!). Other than that seems like 50-75 for various parts of Scotland, with low 60s in parts of Northern England. 


Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

johncs2016
03 October 2025 20:03:02
Here in Edinburgh, the maximum wind gusts at Edinburgh Gogarbank have reached around 64 mph from the SW which makes today our windiest day of this year so far by quite a considerable which is quite remarkable when you consider that the worst of the weather from this storm was expected to be in the NW of Scotland where all of the amber warnings are.

We have also had some heavy rain from that which has now given way to frequent blustery showers. As I write, this has resulted in 10.4 mm of rain at Edinburgh Gogarbank and although we've had far wetter days than that, this has still enough to give us our wettest day of this autumn so far.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

johncs2016
04 October 2025 07:51:25
An incredible (for here anyway, given how dry it has been here for such a long period of time) 20.8 mm of rain came out of this system at Edinburgh Gogarbank which made yesterday our wettest day of this year so far in addition to being our windiest day of the year so far and yet, there were no actual official yellow warnings for rain in force for here (our only warning was for wind) as all of that was further west.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Roger Parsons
04 October 2025 08:24:12
Wondering how our Irish colleagues are doing?

"In the Republic of Ireland, a man in his 40s died in County Donegal in a "weather-related incident" and about 120,000 properties remain without power. At Dublin Airport, about 20 of Saturday's flights have been cancelled by airlines as winds continue to disrupt some operations. "

Thousands still without power as Storm Amy sweeps through NI

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce86jkg8dx4o 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

idj20
04 October 2025 08:27:04
Thankfully we here at Kent got off lightly. Winds hasn't been that strong last night, only 10 mm of rain fell in past 24 hours and now it is currently fine and sunny with a bit of a breeze. Seems my location has dodged a bullet on this occasion. 


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 October 2025 08:32:01

An incredible (for here anyway, given how dry it has been here for such a long period of time) 20.8 mm of rain came out of this system at Edinburgh Gogarbank which made yesterday our wettest day of this year so far in addition to being our windiest day of the year so far and yet, there were no actual official yellow warnings for rain in force for here (our only warning was for wind) as all of that was further west.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

The yellow warnings are for medium probability and medium impact. I guess that that the MetO thought that that Edinburgh could soak up a bit less than an inch of rain over the day without a great deal of impact (flooded roads etc). You might well have had a yellow warning if the forecast was for 20mm in an hour, say.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

johncs2016
04 October 2025 11:19:40

The yellow warnings are for medium probability and medium impact. I guess that that the MetO thought that that Edinburgh could soak up a bit less than an inch of rain over the day without a great deal of impact (flooded roads etc). You might well have had a yellow warning if the forecast was for 20mm in an hour, say.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

If I saw a forecast for 20mm of rain in just an hour, I would probably be expecting at least an amber warning for that rather than a yellow warning but then, I'm not an actual expert in these matters and there are many members of this forum who are far more knowledgeable than me in that regard.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Chichesterweatherfan2
04 October 2025 21:35:25

Wondering how our Irish colleagues are doing?

"In the Republic of Ireland, a man in his 40s died in County Donegal in a "weather-related incident" and about 120,000 properties remain without power. At Dublin Airport, about 20 of Saturday's flights have been cancelled by airlines as winds continue to disrupt some operations. "

Thousands still without power as Storm Amy sweeps through NI

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce86jkg8dx4o 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

I’m not Irish, Roger, but we’ve been staying in Belfast with family and friends…and had the misfortune to be flying back from George Best City Airport this am..not a bundle of fun…one abandoned take off due to high wind speed then sat for 3 hours before we took off..all rather scary and several passengers had panic attacks…and got off the plane…flying into Gatwick this afternoon was a tad bumpy too! 

Roger Parsons
05 October 2025 05:51:07

I’m not Irish, Roger, but we’ve been staying in Belfast with family and friends…and had the misfortune to be flying back from George Best City Airport this am..not a bundle of fun…one abandoned take off due to high wind speed then sat for 3 hours before we took off..all rather scary and several passengers had panic attacks…and got off the plane…flying into Gatwick this afternoon was a tad bumpy too! 

Originally Posted by: Chichesterweatherfan2 

Thanks CWF. I've just been reading this UK 8hr BBC update: I expect more updates today.

We've seem to have got off relatively lightly here in Lincolnshire. Trees were having a good hammering.

Damage and disruption as Storm Amy hits UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0lky9nn948o 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Roger Parsons
06 October 2025 05:26:55
Related cave rescue...Wharfedale.

Three men were brought to safety following a cave rescue lasting more than 30 hours in "appalling conditions" during Storm Amy.

The experienced cavers were stranded in the challenging Dowber Gill Passage, near Grassington, North Yorkshire.

The alarm was raised at 22:00 BST on Thursday when they failed to return and one of their wives called the police.

Upper Wharfedale Fell Rescue Association said more than 100 volunteers took part in the "long and difficult" rescue, which was hampered by worsening weather, flooding, rough terrain and long hours underground.

Cavers safe after 30-hour rescue during Storm Amy

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly6x3xvyy0o 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

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