The drought is well and truly over in this part of the world. The reservoirs will be filling up nicely.

Its been a wet few weeks but the GFS ensembles are starting to look pretty dry again in the reliable time frame. 

I guess it is just one run of one model but it is in keeping with the general picture.

384hr accumulated precipitation chart 

Go back a few steps on this chart, to, say, 348hr and the drought is still in force. for all of the country.  Getting rather wet in the western half of UK only 24 hrs later.

Well and truly still stuck in here. Thought it had broken a couple of weeks back but dry in the last 10 days and nothing much has changed. Still very dusty and cracks still in the lawn although has greened up a bit. 31mm so far for September.

The ground is still rather damp across most of the south after quite a deluge earlier this month. 

It could probably stay dry for another few weeks or longer without having any meaningful impact on wildlife, ecosystems etc

True but...

For many parts on chalk and those other parts relying on aquifers, it's going to need a significant amount of rain to recharge them.

And to give them a good flush. A lot can change in the next five months or so of course.

In addition to that, there are a number of areas in NE Scotland to the north of Aberdeen which are still at significant water scarcity status and these are the same areas which were at that same status last week as well, so there continues to be no improvement whatsoever in those areas.

Nevertheless, there has been a couple of areas around Aberdeen, Angus and the south of Aberdeenshire which have had their status downgraded from moderate water scarcity status to alert status but that has been very much the exception rather than the rule and in general, all other areas which I haven't mentioned so far have seen their status remain unchanged from this time last week.

This means that for now at  least, Edinburgh is still at alert status regarding water scarcity but given the ongoing lack of rain in the last week, I would say that we have actually been let off very lightly this week in that regard and unless this situation improves in regards to us seeing some proper and sustained rainfall, the overall situation is only going to continue to deteriorate once again with more and more areas seeing their water scarcity status being upgraded.

The latest forecasts suggest that we could get some rain at the weekend but that could easily end up being a situation in which we end up getting only a fraction of 1 mm of rain from that here if anything at all and apart from that, there are no signs of any real significant rainfall on the horizon with high pressure looking likely to build after that. All in all, this is all looking very concerning indeed.

I have been saying for some time on here that there were no real signals for a wet autumn and that was something which I stuck with even when we had that wetter spell earlier in the month. Some people at that time were saying on this forum that the reservoirs would fill up nicely during this autumn which would result in everything being OK in the end as regards to the water scarcity situation.

At the time, I kept wishing that I could actually believe those who were saying that and as time is going on, it now appears as though I have been correct all along in that regard with those who were more confident of a wetter result in the end, now scratching their heads over this prediction and starting to have some doubts about that actually being correct, especially since we are now almost a third of the way through the autumn with still no signs whatsoever, of their predictions coming even close to actually being correct.

A few other areas have seen some recovery though thanks to some recent rainfall and this has allowed a couple of areas in the Angus area to have their water scarcity status downgraded from alert status to early warning status with the Loch Ness catchment area having its status downgraded from early warning status to normal.

Meanwhile, the status in all other areas which have not been mentioned here remain unchanged from last week and this means that for now at least, East Lothian remains at moderate water scarcity status along with the city of Dundee and NE Fife with the rest of Fife remaining at alert status along with Edinburgh, West Lothian, Midlothian and the Scottish Borders.

It's similar here if it had not been for one really wet day centred on Saturday 20th spring water supplies would have been in desperate straits with livestock soon needing to start coming in but nowhere near enough to keep them going.

After the initial remarkable surge the inflow has dropped to more normal 'late summer' levels but tonight is an example of a rain event which will give plenty in the west but probably 2 or 3 mm at most here. So things are still far from normal just yet.

The main feature of this drought period is how hard it is to believe the differences in places not very far apart but broadly an east west split.

Here grass and crops have been stressed and underperforming since April and though it looks green again now slight frosts for several nights mean regrowth has very little bulk and will soon be gone. Yet on western slopes of pennines they've got above average winter feed in store and dry conditions only lasted a few weeks.

Skipping through next two weeks rain accumulation on GFS shows about 20mm only most likely it won't be half that.

At this time of year evaporation is reducing rapidly but I can see it being another month with about 50% normal at most.

September was the only month this year to just get above normal with 78mm

September in England as a whole at 149% but its been a very front loaded month here in the SE, and the North of the country has been much wetter, so the data shouldn't be taken on face value (critical thinking required!)

Ref - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68de72c6ef1c2f72bc1e4d3a/Rainfall_and_river_flow_summary_24_to_30_September_2025.pdf

It's quite common to have a dry spring into May or dry July August but it has never really let up here since February with over 50% deficit.

On the plus side there was about 8mm overnight and some more later today will have helped water supply anyway.

A detailed look at the GEFS shows absolutely dry (bar NW Scotland , and only one wet day there) to Sat 18th and even after that only a few runs conjure up any rain. Our local borehole in the Downs is now within a couple of metres of lowest ever recorded, at any season and still decreasing - in a normal year the minimum occurs in mid-September.

It's a good thing if you like dry weather. If you think what we drink come from rain then perhaps not - however it may well yet rain enough to fill up our reservoirs and ground water. But, this is a new, changing climate so nothing is as it was, old certainties likewise.

If you're a complacent then nothing matters.

In all my years of looking at GEFS output I don't think I've seen before such a lack of rainfall as is shown on today's 00z London plot. Not good for those of us in Kent and East Sussex still under a hosepipe ban because of low water resources. 

We are also still under a hosepipe ban despite all the rain in September and so far in October.

Absurd.  Its the fault of these privatised companies and failure to invest rather than lack of rain. 

To a degree Beast.

Not really here, reservoirs were at a very low level end of August (36%). Should get the latest data in a couple of days but it won't be back at 80% which is where it should be. 

From the model thread.

Since you ask Matty, for me I know of a number of drought related factors that affect me directly. I have a thatched roof and the ridge needs replacing. The thatchers around here are complaining about the shortage of suitable long wheat straw this year. A poor harvest last summer due to a drought. The rest of the roof is water reed (imported) which won’t need attention for another ten to fifteen years. So I’m facing a problem. The ridge is the key to a long lasting thatched roof.

I go on about groundwater from time to time. I’m not the only person on TWO who follows this.

Ground water levels here are low. If the trend continues through the winter I understand that we will face restrictions on water use next year. So I wouldn’t call the current bit of dry weather a non issue. I look ahead but not everyone does and many of us have a laissez-faire approach to strategic supplies of whatever form.  The new housing developments in this region and elsewhere will need water and  I understand from my contacts in my supplier Wessex Water, it’s not looking rosy. This current dry spell if it were to go on through the winter would lead to user constraints next year. 

Those are two things that affect me directly. From an environmental angle the situation again looks not rosy. There were many drought related events usually involving ponds and streams drying up last summer. This means these habitats cease to be havens of biological diversity. One of my interests are fish and aquatic habitats. These obviously require suitable water. Periods of dry weather and low rivers reduce oxygen levels in water that can lead to fish kills and more algal blooms. Many examples in recent months around the UK.  I could go on Matty but I hope you get the gist of this.   These chronic factors merely add to the malaise.

https://environmentagency.blog.gov.uk/2025/09/23/drought-impacts-continue-despite-changeable-weather/ 

There's also been subsidence on roads, and coming back from Tesco this morning there were several times when the left side of the car lurched downwards as a long dip appeared. Again these are in prone areas, but they're worse than in the past. 

Further afield, the Thanet Way has had problems again and is now down to 50 (from 70) for, well, a very long time indeed - as KCC doesn't have the money to repair it!

Indeed subsidence more of an issue with people on clay but not exclusive to these areas. The subsidence outside my house was caused by a leaky main connection I found out yesterday when Wessex Water replaced a meter. Perhaps your reply should be in the Broken Britian sic thread. Thanks Saint if you read this for that promotional chocolate photo. Classic incompetence from the heart of the very top.