Looking at the Met OIffice CET daily means 1772-2025 I get 1629.8 degree days for the 92 days of summer 1976 and 1613.8 degree days for the 91 days of summer to date 2025.

This means we need a CET of 16.0 (1629.8-1613.8) to exactly equal 1976 and that is going to be nip and tuck by the looks of it

It could be so close we will need to go to average (max+min)/2 to separate rather than average(mean)

August confirmed as 17.7

31st August now confirmed as 16.4C so ahead of the 16.0 required to take the record from 1976

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_daily_totals.txt 

Even to 2 decimal places the result is a tie both being 17.72 and presumably that is what the MetO will say

The next places of decimals shows 2025 as 17.7196 and 1976 as 17.7153

Lol ,that's as close as you can get. 

 So summer is 17.72 to 2 decimals but what was month of August to 2 decimals ?

(Guess of 17.68.....)

using the (max+min)/2 method it was 17.71C

Well played, looks like you are the August monthly winner.

0.03c out with an end result of 17.71c

Think it should be beer!

By my calculations Redmoons has the lowest mean error for summer 2025, with Grandad just one hundredth more, then AP Snowman eight hundredth more. I'm just off the podium, the mean error a couple of hundredths higher than AP Snowman's.

It's since May that this year has served me most well, with the 2nd lowest mean error. Too bad I had the 11th highest error for the preceding four months 😅

Overall it's close between Dingle Rob and Scilly Dave for the January-August top spot. I'll leave it to the official competition manager to declare which it is 😉

Ha-ha - yes Beer it shall be!! Only champagne for an exact result.... - but beer is excellent recompense anyway - I'll buy a virtual round for all competitors. [img]https://www.wallpics.net/beer-background-image/[/img]

Congratulations Dickie - beer it is! A virtual barrel of Old Peculier is winging its way to you. 

Now that the results are in I'll get the table updated tonight or tomorrow. It's going to be very close in the top 5!

Cheers Dickie!  Well done!  🍺 

Congratulations Dickie, very well done 👍🏻

Not much change in the August table as all but 4 participants had prediction errors of 1.01c or less - in fact 17 of you had an error margin of 0.41c or less! You're clearly all getting to good!

Does anyone know what the lowest cumulative CET prediction error is in the history of the competition? It would be great to have some stats - perhaps the all time top ten annual cumulative predictions over the course of the competitions history.

Thanks everyone for the celebratory notes - that beer was quite lovely!!

Cheers!!

That would have been Global Warming who kept that info as he started the competition.  The only other way of finding out would be if we could find them all on google.  

I can recall a post by GW where he summarised past competitions as a way of looking at who had been the most successful over the years. 

I think this was probably 5- 6 years ago.

The other way is to look at the December CET thread for each year

The "Weather" thread has 340 pages dating back to 2013 and, as Frank said, looking at the December CET thread each year would give an indication of the best scores that year and the winner. Sadly prior to Dec 2022 the comp was administered by Global Warming and he always showed the results as a jpg link to an external hosting site. All the images from these links have since been deleted so there is no longer any information available. Since 2022 the results have been posted on here and can be studied in this way

For info GW said the comp started in 2010

I noticed that the best ever scores were :

Gusty scored a total error of 5.88 in 2019 which just beat Whether Idle 5.99 in some unknown earlier year which was referenced later on

The Met Office regional series have been updated for August which means I can now do my England & Wales summer index (normalised temperature + sunshine - rainfall) for the whole summer. 

No months in the really top ranks (170+) but it was an extremely consistent season. June scored 152, July 154, August 152. The first year since 1975 and 1976 that all 3 months were above the 150 mark.

Contrast with 2018: 160, 180, 134. So 2018 was better overall but August let it down. Or 2006: 159, 186, 123.

JJA ranking:

1976: 166

1995: 160

2018: 158

2022: 156

Then 2006 and 1989 in 5th and 6th.

2025 comes in 7th with 153: just ahead of, but an almost dead heat with, 1975.

HadCET (the longest running temperature series of all time) draws 2025 with 1976 but lists 2025 above 1976, so it must have come down to the hundredths.

thousandths in fact

using the approved (max+min)/2 method to get the exact cet mean, 1976 comes out as 17.7173 and 2025 as 17.7184 - a difference of 0.0011