Good to see that we've cracked 17.0C. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

HadCET 17.6°C to 12th, after a stonking 23+ day.

We’re probably on for another big rise today.  

I reckon you're right Caz; even the Lancashire station looks to be mid twenties after a warm night. A 22 would lift it to 17.9 and a 23 to 18 almost exactly. I reckon we'll be on 17.9 and possibly above 18. by the end of the weekend, although the muggy nights will be gone and with easterlies developing, Rothamsted might not come out as well as the other two stations. That'll take us past the halfway point for the month. 

Eyeballing the latest GFS max and mins for the stations gives something like the following for the next 15 days from tomorrow: 21, 21, 20, 20, 20, 20, 17, 16, 18, 14, 18, 19, 17, 17, 19. The West-focused nature of the remaining warm weather helps a bit with the CET sites.

The last 2 weeks of the month could go one of various ways because there's a fair bit of ensemble spread, but that series above would leave us pretty much where we are now by the 29th.

Which could leave us on a knife-edge for the summer, wrt the record; but frankly I'm happy either way. Just glad the summer did its own thing, refuting 'front-loaded' claims that were never backed with secure evidence.

Looks like a 17c + is almost certain, if that happens 2025 will join 1826 as the only year with all Summer months above 17c. 

And that's pretty impressive.  🙂🙂🙂

Yu have to add about 0.9C to the CET Mean  to see what 1826 would have been like if we had the same setup today (based on the slope of the 1826-2025 CET graph)

Radcliffe (Oxford) has data for 1826 and I just took a look at it. 

only 5 days at 30C or over with nothing over 31.1 so a steady warmth rather than a big spike

I would be very interested in seeing any of that older data Martin (just for personal anorakism). Is there a link publicly available or is it private or not online?

Hi Bert

Go to 

https://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/climate/rms/daily-data.html 

Link to download csv file is right at the bottom of the page

It's brilliant. I can only open it in notepad but it's clear enough and what a record. Had a good look at the frigid summer of 1816 too. Thank you.

Hadley

18.0 to the 13th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.8c above the 91 to 20 average

Interesting to see what it'll be this time next week.  🙂🙂🙂🙂

Hadley

18.1 to the 14th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.9c above the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

18.3 to the 15th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c above the 91 to 20 average

Which leaves us (broadly) with 15.8 needed for the rest of the month (including yesterday, 16th) to make 17 for the month, and a 17.4+ for the summer; and 16.8 needed for a 17.5 month and a 17.6 for the summer. With 2 stations more to the west, days from yesterday to Tuesday should comfortably make this even with a NEly. Beyond then it's marginal (or at least very uncertain) for 12 days. Very interesting moment. 

HadCET still 18.3°C to 16th (after 18.7 yesterday). Helps a bit.

It may drop a bit after this. 🙂🙂🙂

Hadcet 18.2°c to 17th.

Now 15.6 for the remainder will give us a 17 August and 17.3+ summer.

16.7 for the remainder will give us a 17.5 August and 17.6+ summer, just pipping 1826 but shy of 1976.

Every day above 16.7 now will edge us ever closer to the top spot.

Sounds like you ought to be investing in a Office 365 subscription Bert then you can have fun to your heart's content using Excel and Access 😊

Yes 1816 does look dire having 54 of the 92 days below 20C max

1816 is such a fascinating year. Widely branded 'the year without a summer'

This following the mega-eruption of Tambora.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer 

It's the cultural impacts that fascinate me most.

Including how a group of aristo chums having their summer European jolly ruined by the ghastly weather, so had a competition to each write a horror story to help pass the time. 

HadCET back up to 18.3°C to 18th.

So 16.5 for the remainder (including yesterday, 19th) would comfortably give us 17.5 for the month, just>17.6 for the summer.