Hopefully, this doesn't mean that summer is over in terms of our actual weather, but I am hoping that this might actually bring a bit of very welcome rainfall to these parts as we now have a very large rainfall deficit here for this year which really needs to be made up.

Since it is the wind which is likely to be the greater concern though, that is not something which I'm not really looking forward to as it can get very noisy here with that, especially if that occurs at night but the fact that this is only our first named storm since January shows just how benign our weather has been this year.

You've only to look at August 1986 (and when the oceans were in a much cooler state) to see that major Atlantic storms can and do occur at this time of year. 

Edit, even on the 1st of that year. 

Most of the more notable August storms though have been later in the month. This would be a tad unusual. That said there have been gales in July before.

Today's UKV 15Z is showing wind gusts of over 100mph in Scotland.

The 18z GFS looks like it wants to move Fife to Scandinavia. Not liking the direction of travel here with the model runs, while still a good deal of spread in exact track / depth, it is starting to look as if the detail might be how bad is bad? Given time of year, bank holiday weekend in Scotland - potentially looking at a red warning for somewhere? 

I'm glad it's not bin day here on Monday.

Currently looking like I am in the unfortunate “sweet spot” of this storm in Moray . Currently forecasting gusts to 65 mph at the start of the pressure rise, nothing to spectacular, but as has been mentioned trees in full leaf will be very vulnerable to those gusts . 

Will be interesting to see how this one develops, at least it will hopefully bring some rain with it 🤞

Biggest issue is going to be all the standing crops that are  soon the be harvested 😖🥃 

UKV again showing gusts >100mph.

Arpege looks less fearsome than some of the other recent model output. 

In the current Shipping Forecast, valid to 1800 UTC Sun 3rd, there are no gale warnings. Force 6 predicted quite widely.

Is Floris going to bomb on Monday?

I think it is borderline reaching the threshold between 12z on Sunday and 12z on Monday and I think the deepening occurs as it crosses the northern part of the UK. 

I would expect it to be a very windy Monday in some northern parts while some more southern areas think “what storm?” and (social) media to accuse the Met Office of crying wolf etc.

There is now an amber warning out for Floris for much of Scotland (Central Belt northwards).

Mean speed (any warm colours are near or above gale force)

And corresponding gust speeds:

As Doc says there is an Amber out which equates to 50-70 mph gusts in Edinburgh 10am to 10pm

Edinburgh's population has doubled this weekend and the festival goers will be out tomorrow amongst the marquees and temporary structures in those wind speeds 🤔

I'm more concerned with those farmers and growers who just haven't been getting enough rain this year and although there's been a lot of talk about that here on this forum as regards to the situation down south, it can be easy to forget that there is also an ongoing water scarcity situation in the east of Scotland which is reported every week by SEPA.

As regards to this storm, this appears to be more of a wind event as there are no rain warnings being issued from that due to the fact that any rain is being forecast to pass through very quickly (it wouldn't therefore surprise me if we saw a return to sunny conditions by this time tomorrow as well, albeit possibly very windy conditions).

Edinburgh Gogarbank saw just a measly 0.8 mm of rain from this morning's cold front and prior to that, there was no recorded rainfall here for over a week as far as I know. This means that if we don't get any significant rain tomorrow from Storm Floris, we could well end up in serious trouble as regards to water scarcity especially if high pressure then builds in behind that in the manner in which many models are suggesting.

If that happens, I can see our water scarcity status being further upgraded by SEPA in the next upcoming weekly report, and that is what I am mainly concerned with.

Here we go, several trains in Scotland already cancelled tomorrow and Avanti & LNER saying don't travel north of Preston or Newcastle 🙄

Good grief - next it will be leaves on the line! 🤣🤣🤣

Feels very humid and muggy down here.  As it did before Oct 87, even though the storm is going 200 miles away 

Yes, in lieu of any rain it looks like we're just going to see some rancid humid air down here! The dewpoint's risen through the day, meaning it hits you when you go outside: the dewpoint outside is 18.5, indoors (downstairs) it's still around 12.

It looks slightly deeper and a little further north this UKV run? Looks bad for Skye and Eastern Moray Coast! 

Yes I think either the Moray coast or northern Aberdeenshire could be in the firing line for some of the worst winds based on many of the models.

The Edinburgh Tattoo cancelled tomorrow. First time in 75 years 😲

Not too bad yet, gusting to 45mph here and 50mph in Glasgow. Sunny spells and 18 C so not as bleak as a winter storm