I favour a warmer than average month (no surprise given the background climate) and I'm not convinced that we've seen the end of the heatwaves either however i don't think it's going to be a scorcher so it's 17.87c for me.

As usual predictions to me by midnight on July 31st via email: [email protected]

All time CET average for August is 15.67c

1991 - 2020 CET average for August is 16.01c

All time warmest

1995    19.10

1997    19.00

2022    18.70

1947    18.60

1747    18.60

All time Coolest

1912    12.90

1694    13.00

1695    13.00

1725    13.30

1674    13.50

Just stickied it for you.  🙂🙂🙂

Hadley

14.8 to the 1st

1.0c below the 61 to 90 average

2.6c below the 91 to 20 average

Phew - a bit parky. 🙃🙂🙂

Hadley

15.3 to the 2nd

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

2.1c below the 91 to 20 average

HadCET 15.9°C to 3rd.

Hadley

16.4 to the 4th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.9c below the 91 to 20 average

HadCET 16.3°C to 5th. Thought it might be a touch lower.

I'm suggesting 17 by Monday and 17.5 by the end of next week.

Apologies for the late posting this month - family wedding over the weekend and a busy start to the week. Anyway here goes - probably the biggest spread of predictions for a while though all of them are above (or very above) average!

Bolty and Hungry Tiger I didn't spot a prediction from you this month - apologies if i missed it somewhere.

I did it through email. I reckon it must have gone awol. I went for 17.0C for August. I'll stick to posting on here I think. 🙂🙂

Apologies Gavin - I was late checking them and if it went through to the Junk mail folder then outlook has a habit of deleting them after 7 days. I'll add you to my list.

I also sent an email. My guess was 16.7c.

Cheers. Thanks. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

I hope you're right. Almost immediately after guessing I thought I'd gone too high. I'd been suckered in by the GFS bullish forecast for another spell of very hot weather. Now looking more like very warm and possibly locally hot. For us at the top end of the prediction range we need prolonged warmth early as August usually tails off quite quickly towards the end.  

Hadley

16.2 to the 6th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c below the 91 to 20 average

I suspect it won't change by much tomorrow (i.e. up to today's average.) Thereafter the MetO forecast average for the following six days, across the 3 stations, is 19.45°C. Obviously this can only be a guide as only likely max and min temps are in forecast. But if that turns out, that will give is 17.7°C for August to 13th. To equal 1995 as the 4th hottest summer in the series, we would need 16.6 for August- that's all. 16.9 could put us alongside 2018 as joint 3rd. From Wednesday onwards, we would only need about 15.8 for the rest of the month for the former and just above 16.3 for the latter.

Thoughts? I can't do the projections as accurately as GW used to.

I think you do very well.  I like to read your thoughts and stats, so don’t stop!    👍 

Hadley

16.4 to the 7th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c below the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

16.6 to the 8th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.8c below the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

16.6 to the 9th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average

0.7c below the 91 to 20 average

HadCET 16.7°C to 10th

Today's temps (and especially last night's CET min) will be critical for my end-of-today 17 prediction. Days have been pleasantly warm but nights have been cool. We'll need a 20 degree day really; on the other hand my guess at 17.5 for the end of the week (Friday) should be on track (or exceeded) if current forecasts bear out.

But on this occasion the outlook is so warm, indeed hot, that the CET could feasibly edge into the 19s °C by the end of this weekend. According to my statistical analysis, that would make this week hotter than any historical year since 1772 across the same date range.

https://bsky.app/profile/peacockreports.bsky.social/post/3lw4yevkilc27 

Even if I widen the similarity of latest CET requirement so far that every past year is considered, the 'warmest' line stays below what the latest two GFS runs give me as an estimate.

Nothing certain though - we might see more of a surface flow off the North Sea keeping temperatures a bit lower this weekend, which is what the 00z ECMWF deterministic run predicted for example.

Hadley

17.1 to the 11th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 91 to 20 average