In addition to that, these forecasts are now no longer even going for us to get our hottest day of the year out of this spell as the predicted highest temperature for here has now been downgraded to just 27°C on Saturday which wouldn't be hot enough for that to happen.

One thing about a West-biased heatwave: it will boost the CET more than an East biased one.

Pershore and Stonyhurst look to be getting some of the country’s warmest temperatures (until Westerlies cool it down there on Tuesday). Rothamsted park is sufficiently far from the East coast that it should still get pretty high temperatures. 

The last heatwave peaked along the Thames estuary which is suboptimal for really high CET.

Highest dew point today was around 15.5C but for the majority of the day its been between 11C-14C. 

Currently 13.8C so all very much bog standard stuff for mid July down here. 

Oh and at 9:50pm the air temperature is around 19C - again nothing remarkable and all very much bog standard stuff.

Pershore 29.2c the high yesterday.  

That's higher then any model prediction I think.

GFS rolling out and while we will likely have  another 2 day blip where temperatures are a little cooler (still likely mid twenties) the heat then ramps up again from next Wednesday with yet again another HP cell building in. Potentially very hot between Wednesday and Sunday again next week.

It's our old friend coming to spoil the party John

There's a slight easterly drift for the weekend which will cool Edinburgh, especially the Airport and The Botanic Gardens, maybe Gogarbank? Swanston may do better and Glasgow should be hot.

I'm in the Yorkshire Dales from tomorrow until Monday where it's forecast to be 28, 29, 28 and 25 C. A bit too hot for long walks 🥵

People actually *want* stinking humidity?!

If you want it, come to Kent. 16.2 dewpoint here right now and it feels sultry despite not even being 8AM.

The last couple of days, with dewpoints in the low double figures, were much more comfortable. Much better for doing things outdoors and, of course, for sleeping at night. Drier air cools more, and cools faster, just another reason why low dewpoints are, IMO, much more pleasant than high ones. 

I will be travelling down to Hawick on Monday and for there, the Met Office are still going for a three day official heatwave between tomorrow and Sunday inclusive. The peak of that heatwave down there is expected to be on Saturday with a predicted maximum of around 29°C and with that, there is always the chance of a 30+°C maximum. Even with that, it's not likely to be as hot as it was in July 2022 when they had their hottest day on record down there with a temperature of around 35°C although this coming Saturday would be their hottest day since then if that forecast was to come off.

However, all of that will be happening before I arrive down there, so I will miss all of that and for here in Edinburgh, our highest temperature over the weekend has now been downgraded to just 25°C, so we're now barely even reaching the threshold of an official heatwave on any individual day over that period now.

That said, it's still forecast to be warm even going into next week until next Wednesday at least with there being no signs of any significant cooldown any time soon although the temperature on each of these days is forecast to only be in the low 20s°C in both Hawick and Edinburgh which wouldn't be warm enough to meet the threshold of an official heatwave.

UKV has toned Saturday down quite a bit on the latest update, from 36C in the west to 33 now. 

The models really seemed to underestimate this trough coming in from the east. I might be wrong but it seems like quite an unusual summer setup. 

We've been exchanging intensity for longevity. The ensembles have gone from a big rise then a cliff, to a gentle plateau then a small valley and up on to the plateau again.

EDIT: having said that I just ran the mean peak analysis on the GFS ensemble, and the mean peak is 17.9C. That's higher than it was a couple of days ago. 17.9C for London = 35C. Some runs, like P26, have 850s around 17-18C for about a week in a row.

The GFS 00Z run is rather warm isn't it? Tuesday is the only day that doesn't reach 30C somewhere in the country.

UK maxima (from the TWO standard res maps) from today:

31, 33, 32, 31, 31, 26, 30, 34, 35, 37, 37, 39, 35, 33, 34, 36

Currently 30C

Some clouds bubbling up.

Here in Edinburgh, it's around 24°C as I write which is actually a couple of degrees higher than what it was supposed to be.

Although that doesn't quite meet the thresholds for an official heatwave in this part of the world, we could find that Edinburgh actually gets an official heatwave after all if today's temperature rises any further (the temperature threshold for that here is only 25°C or higher) with that heatwave extending from today until Saturday inclusive (the Met Office are still going for maximums of around 25°C for both tomorrow and Saturday).

The one downside is that there is a lot of cloud around just now which could yet scupper our chances of seeing today's temperatures rise even further but that hasn't prevented our temperatures up until now from becoming as high as they have become.

There's the smell of the sea outside - that unmistakable pong you get from it. It's a good sign that we've a synoptically-reinforced sea breeze around, even if at ground level i's very light indeed!

Sunny, 25.6, dew 19.3. The high earlier (minus the sea breeze) was 26.7.

Met Office has Edinburgh downgraded to 21 C now for Sunday....even a chance of haar to spoil the golf! 🤔 No heatwave in Edinburgh perhaps?

Hopefully I will experience my first heatwave in the UK for years in The Dales. Fri 27C, Sat 30C, Sun 28C

6 guys supposed to be walking.....I think pub gardens will feature!

Several 30s around on the 3pm readings. Highest official one seems to be Southampton Oceanographic Centre - there's a station I haven't seen featuring for a while though it used to be a summer favourite! At 31.8C it's a full 1.5 degrees higher than anywhere else (apart from the RAF Lakenheath barbecue centre)

remarkable how easily we can reach 30 these days with not very high uppers.  you could really feel the unpleasant change in airmass last night. had to have the fan on all night. looks like the case for the next 4 nights perhaps. 

Is Southampton Ocean an official site?

I thought it was (I'm sure it used to appear on daily record lists) but it's not on the Met Office list these days. Was it a rooftop site?

Yeah not sure tbh. 

Max was 31.2C here at 3pm. Pretty much exactly as forecast.

Even with that though, we might still have had an outside chance of a heatwave in Edinburgh from today until Saturday inclusive if today had get any warmer than it had got.

Since it has clouded over a more though, the temperature has refused to rise any further and has actually dropped back slightly now, so it looks as though that same old familiar foe of too much cloud around which prevents us from getting a frost on far too many winter nights, has now probably also just hammered the final nail in our coffin in terms of our chances of a heatwave here in Edinburgh.

Having said that though, the latest forecast of around 21°C for Sunday here in Edinburgh is actually a slight upgrade from this morning when that same forecast had us struggling to even get a 20+°C maximum on that day yet at the same time, it's still hard to believe that this same forecast was going for a possible maximum of around 28°C on that same day just a few days ago.

Just seen the latest MetO forecast. Fly in the ointment for Sunday

Cloud moving in from the east Sat night may prove stubborn in places on Sunday. Still some hotspots up to 31 in the west and northwest

NW Scotland one to watch Saturday, 30C+ by day followed by a warm night. Might be a record broken up there

Watching that, it looks like the 'official' heatwave will be southern, central and western England, possibly parts of western Scotland too?

Pershore one of the hottest spots again today with 31.2C at the Auto station, and 30.2 at the College (both hourly readings)

Ross-on-Wye 32.0c the hot-spot today. Widespread 30c+