The Weather Outlook

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NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
05 July 2025 11:24:31

I’m still pre-production: first commercial harvest this year, first still wine available 2026 and sparkling 2027 or 8. I took a small harvest last autumn and made some wine for home consumption but only about 60l.

I’m making blanc de noirs and rose de noirs sparkling from Pinot noir and Pinot meunier, and still white from Melon de Bourgogne. 

Http://www.littlebursted.com 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I enjoyed reading your honesty about writing a blog. So many blogs fall by the wayside as they run out of steam.

The key I think is planning what you're going to write about well in advance and adapting to events. Well that's just my take.

I've never done a vineyard but planted orchards, commercial plant nurseries and gardens. When I began in the horticultural industry all those years ago, I never realised where it would take me. My latest thing is Hedychiums. The latest addition, Elisabeth arrived yesterday from a nursery in Cornwall. I would like rain though because these plants like moisture in the summer. It's been incredibly dry here since March.

I'll follow with interest your adventures and the vines.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Matty H
05 July 2025 13:07:56
This isn’t a moan as I’m delighted. 

Here’s today’s MetO forecast for here:

Today

Damp and grey for much of Saturday with outbreaks of rain and perhaps some heavier showers, these most frequent over higher ground.

Misty and murky over the Moors and along western coasts. Breezy but feeling humid. Maximum temperature 20°C.

The reality is we haven’t had a single spot of rain all day and there’s next to nothing on the radar either 


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Matty H
05 July 2025 18:04:42

This isn’t a moan as I’m delighted. 

Here’s today’s MetO forecast for here:

Today

Damp and grey for much of Saturday with outbreaks of rain and perhaps some heavier showers, these most frequent over higher ground.

Misty and murky over the Moors and along western coasts. Breezy but feeling humid. Maximum temperature 20°C.

The reality is we haven’t had a single spot of rain all day and there’s next to nothing on the radar either 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Not a drop fell. This cool and unsettled last 5 weeks continues unabated. 

The grass around here is now either gone or parched brown. That’s not going to improve anytime soon


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

bledur
05 July 2025 18:26:29

Not a drop fell. This cool and unsettled last 5 weeks continues unabated. 

The grass around here is now either gone or parched brown. That’s not going to improve anytime soon

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

No, not going to rain in any quantity till late July -August in the south  when the pattern will change

bledur
05 July 2025 18:40:47

Either they're ignorant/complacent (quite likely tbh) or in the 'don't mention you know what, you might scare the children' camp?

The figure I see (places with just ~200mm rain this year) are just extraordinary. If my part of Dartmoor (we've had around 600mm) had only that much it would be dust and everything bar trees brown. It just shows that, in some ways, it's not the amount of rain that matters so much as the anomaly and underlying geology. That or places with only 200 mm this year are in more serious trouble than it seems.

Interestingly, 'off field' straw prices are very high (harvest is early). We will see how cereal yields pan out, they will show how serious the effects are.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

That is very true , soils that hold their moisture are far less reliant on regular rain than thin soil over rock or brash. W have had little rain here since March but Silage and Hay yield  were reasonable and it is only now pastures are drying up due to lack of cover .

 Winter Barley and Oats are yielding  reasonably as well but straw is short and breaking up through the combine . Some Spring corn is a write off on the light land .

 Funnily enough the well which supplies our garden water needs still has not run dry but prior to this dry spell we had a very wet  spell 

fairweather
05 July 2025 19:08:10

This isn’t a moan as I’m delighted. 

Here’s today’s MetO forecast for here:

Today

Damp and grey for much of Saturday with outbreaks of rain and perhaps some heavier showers, these most frequent over higher ground.

Misty and murky over the Moors and along western coasts. Breezy but feeling humid. Maximum temperature 20°C.

The reality is we haven’t had a single spot of rain all day and there’s next to nothing on the radar either 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Puts our chances at zero then despite it showing some for London on the near useless precipitation ECM ensemble.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Devonian
05 July 2025 19:11:05

No, not going to rain in any quantity till late July -August in the south  when the pattern will change

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Agreed. Though I think the word is 'might' not 'will'. But, I very much hope you are right.

Crepuscular Ray
05 July 2025 21:56:09

Will be interesting when I visit the parched East Midlands mid-month. It's very lush and green up here and quite muddy on the woodland paths 🌳🌿🌱


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Matty H
05 July 2025 22:43:34

An unscientific marker of prolonged warmth, for me, is running the cold tap for a glass of squash, for as long as you like, and it’s still warm to drink. We are at that measure now 


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

The Beast from the East
06 July 2025 02:07:59

An unscientific marker of prolonged warmth, for me, is running the cold tap for a glass of squash, for as long as you like, and it’s still warm to drink. We are at that measure now 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I thought you'd have an american style fridge freezer with ice and cold water on tap!


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Retron
06 July 2025 04:05:24

Yesterday was the first day in several weeks which could be classed as "average" - a high of 22.9 vs a mean max in early July of 22.4. Despite the humidity there was abundant cloud, and that's the key to keeping the upstairs habitable without the use of a/c... 

For the first time in weeks I had a proper night's sleep. No need for a/c, no need for the window open, just snuggling up under the summer duvet and drifting away. Bliss!

Today will be an 80s-style mix of sunshine and showers, perhaps even a storm, and it'll be wonderful to experience. Tomorrow will be another 80s-style day and with lower dewpoints it'll really feel like a traditional 61-90 summer's day.

This little 3-day spell of pleasant weather shines like a beacon amongst the typical 20s dross!


Leysdown, north Kent
bledur
06 July 2025 08:11:03

Yesterday was the first day in several weeks which could be classed as "average" - a high of 22.9 vs a mean max in early July of 22.4. Despite the humidity there was abundant cloud, and that's the key to keeping the upstairs habitable without the use of a/c... 

For the first time in weeks I had a proper night's sleep. No need for a/c, no need for the window open, just snuggling up under the summer duvet and drifting away. Bliss!

Today will be an 80s-style mix of sunshine and showers, perhaps even a storm, and it'll be wonderful to experience. Tomorrow will be another 80s-style day and with lower dewpoints it'll really feel like a traditional 61-90 summer's day.

This little 3-day spell of pleasant weather shines like a beacon amongst the typical 20s dross!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes a nice bit of average weather , bit muggy but it is July and a little bit of rain . Funny this year further East is getting more rain than here with today being a case in point when the showers re invigorate as they head East.  Same tonight as a band of showers affects the eastern side just missing us 🙄

fairweather
06 July 2025 10:12:50

Well no rain here - all missed to my south and east as usual. Big difference in actual rainfall radar and predicted on Met Office site. Predicted shows me getting rain this afternoon but extrapolated actual predicts it glancing and north of me. I'm right more often than the met office with predicting rain for here but hopefully I will be wrong for once.

Did you get any of the overnight rain Darren?


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Retron
06 July 2025 10:36:01

Well no rain here - all missed to my south and east as usual. Big difference in actual rainfall radar and predicted on Met Office site. Predicted shows me getting rain this afternoon but extrapolated actual predicts it glancing and north of me. I'm right more often than the met office with predicting rain for here but hopefully I will be wrong for once.

Did you get any of the overnight rain Darren?

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Yes, I saw the rain avoiding your part of Essex! There was 2.6mm from the overnight rain here, and it's dampened the dust nicely. Nearly all evaporated, but there are still some damp pavements/patches in shady areas. 


Leysdown, north Kent
fairweather
06 July 2025 14:01:06

Yes, I saw the rain avoiding your part of Essex! There was 2.6mm from the overnight rain here, and it's dampened the dust nicely. Nearly all evaporated, but there are still some damp pavements/patches in shady areas. 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Must be about tie now on YTD ! So the next lot went 15 miles North which was parallel and a long run of quite intense rain. The current batch right dead on course when NW of London disintegrated on arrival. That just leaves tomorrow before the next heatwave starts to build!


S.Essex, 42m ASL
06 July 2025 16:07:13

A perfect day today for a weather enthusiast who also enjoys the garden. The second of two very heavy showers has just passed through here. This one quite prolonged and accompanied by lots of semi-distant booming thunder. It has given the garden a good soaking and must have added 100l or so to my 1000l IBC water tank off the shed roof. No amount of watering can ever beat a good downpour. Plenty of warm, steamy sunshine between the showers too. I shall enjoy the potential upcoming continuation of this heatwave summer a bit more now that we have had this decent bit of rain for the garden 


Jason

Salfords, Surrey

The Beast from the East
06 July 2025 16:11:18

A perfect day today for a weather enthusiast who also enjoys the garden. The second of two very heavy showers has just passed through here. This one quite prolonged and accompanied by lots of semi-distant booming thunder. It has given the garden a good soaking and must have added 100l or so to my 1000l IBC water tank off the shed roof. No amount of watering can ever beat a good downpour. Plenty of warm, steamy sunshine between the showers too. I shall enjoy the potential upcoming continuation of this heatwave summer a bit more now that we have had this decent bit of rain for the garden 

Originally Posted by: Mildly Disappointed 

Yes, enough rain now to green up the grass and give my plum trees a boost.  My neighbour must feel like a fool having spent all of Friday with the sprinkler on.  But she doesnt have a water meter. Refused one and happy to pay the excess charge. Rich lady. good divorce settlement


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

fairweather
06 July 2025 17:25:40

0.6mm, every decent shower missing the target as it glides by. Pond virtually dry now - lower than lowest I've had by the end of August heat waves. Greenhouse tomatoes have been stunted by the heat despite wide open door and fully open vents. 45C seems to be their tolerance threshold. 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Brian Gaze
06 July 2025 17:28:55

Yes, enough rain now to green up the grass and give my plum trees a boost. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

How much rain did you have? Here I recorded 1.2mm which is nowhere near enough to stop me needing to water the flower beds and vegetables.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Hungry Tiger
06 July 2025 17:30:32

An unscientific marker of prolonged warmth, for me, is running the cold tap for a glass of squash, for as long as you like, and it’s still warm to drink. We are at that measure now 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

🙂🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Retron
06 July 2025 18:11:59

0.6mm, every decent shower missing the target as it glides by. Pond virtually dry now - lower than lowest I've had by the end of August heat waves. Greenhouse tomatoes have been stunted by the heat despite wide open door and fully open vents. 45C seems to be their tolerance threshold. 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Impressive - there was a whopping 1mm here from the impressive looking showers trundling SE'wards which, of course, managed to split and fizzle just as they crossed my part of Sheppey.

3.6mm today, 4.6mm for the month so far, 193.6mm YTD.

Overnight is last chance saloon for a while - back to the modern summer dross after that, high 20s, dry and very sunny. Yuck. Still, at least we're now losing a minute and a half of daylight a day, the inexorable slide towards autumn continues, even if we've the "dog days" yet to come.

Oh, and one final thought for now: the old saying would be better worded as "three wet days and a thunderstorm" - that sums up the modern summer nicely!

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/ani4.jpg 

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
06 July 2025 18:22:57

Yes, enough rain now to green up the grass and give my plum trees a boost.  My neighbour must feel like a fool having spent all of Friday with the sprinkler on.  But she doesnt have a water meter. Refused one and happy to pay the excess charge. Rich lady. good divorce settlement

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Water meters are compulsory here (Southern Water) - and no, you can't avoid having one by paying more! I'm surprised that was an option in your area.

You can, however, avoid having one if they can't find your stopcock. When everyone else in the road was having one installed, they tried and failed to find mine. They came back 6 or 7 times more, still no luck, so in the end I'm on a "single person" unmetered tariff (for something like £550 a year). And that's gone up by over 50% since last year!


Leysdown, north Kent
fairweather
06 July 2025 19:36:28

Water meters are compulsory here (Southern Water) - and no, you can't avoid having one by paying more! I'm surprised that was an option in your area.

You can, however, avoid having one if they can't find your stopcock. When everyone else in the road was having one installed, they tried and failed to find mine. They came back 6 or 7 times more, still no luck, so in the end I'm on a "single person" unmetered tariff (for something like £550 a year). And that's gone up by over 50% since last year!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

The two of us are on a meter and we try and be sensible with our usage. Ours has just gone up to £386 p.a


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
06 July 2025 19:38:01

Well last chance saloon at 7.15pm with the final wave of showers and we caught a 10 minute fairly heavy one which added another mm making us a dust dowsing 1.5mm for the day.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
The Beast from the East
07 July 2025 00:27:29

How much rain did you have? Here I recorded 1.2mm which is nowhere near enough to stop me needing to water the flower beds and vegetables.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

We had one heavy T storm which dumped a lot in a short time. Wet enough to cause the lawn to puddle.  More to come in early hours of Monday.  


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

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