That surprises me as the max here in Hull was 27c

Not many things are 100% certain in weather forecasting, but I can give you a prediction with 100% certainty that a new June record won't be set tomorrow. Also, 31C was reached yesterday.

East Malling reached 29.3C yesterday, in fact.

And the overall UK max was 31.0C at St James's Park which was dead on the forecast max from most models.

I'm not sure about "overhyped" but the peak of the heat looks like being a couple of degrees lower than what the models suggested a day or two ago. Today 33 looks most likely, with maybe a 34 tomorrow. Put into context, if it reaches 34C then that will be hotter than any year in the entire 1960s, all but two years in the 70s and all but one year in the 80s. Nowadays it's just another warm spell: it's a rare year that doesn't reach 34!

The stats in the Daily Mail weather section are wrong then.

I'm not surprised.  🙂🙂🙂

Yes it looks pretty good. Although some on here would argue about the lack of oppressive heat - plenty of 30C+ days in the southeast later in the run!

And this is where confusion arises. What defines  hot, warm, cooler, cool and mild?

If I was to believe some, June would have been a washout, cool temperatures and copious amounts of rain. Furthermore, summer has ended, trolling? WUM? Who knows but it’s starting to ruin my experience in the model output thread 😕

The true story is from the Midlands going south June has been fabulous (if you like this weather) , some clouds, warm to hot days, breezy and very very usable weather 

The outlook looks a little more mixed, but from what I understand some above average temperatures from the midlands south, some rain mixed in (although they do not seem to materialise as the models suggest recently). From my eyes I cannot see a washout or anything to suggest the whole of summer is over .

I’d put money on we will hit temps above 30 again in the next 2 weeks after it cools down to more normal summer temps from Wednesday.

GFS has 26C on Wednesday , 27C on Thursday and 28C on Friday before it freshens up at the weekend, with Sunday barely making it out of the teens. But that's a pretty brief blip as it's then back up to mid 20s by Tuesday, before another brief cooler interlude on Wednesday. Then it warms up again and it's 30C+ from next Friday till the end of the run.

And the op run is actually one of the cooler ensemble members in the 0-192hr period! (in fact THE coolest at days 7-9, in terms of London 2m temps!)

Quite! If its heat you want, simply step out into the sun and cook yourself. You dont need 20c uppers to feel warm at this time of year if the sun is out. 

If we were currently in a cool and unsettled spell those of us of a certain vintage would be talking about it turning very warm later this week. 

We have an annual family bbq at our house sometime in July or August depending on people's availability - usually arranged a couple of months in advance. We seem to have developed a knack of choosing one of the worst days of the summer on most occasions - frequently resulting in us all being crammed indoors to avoid the cold and rain. This year is July 5th and it looks like the trend will continue. Just hoping that the GFS 6Z is a bit closer to the mark than some of the other very showery forecasts on offer. 

P15 is a fun one on the GEFS.

If GFS 6z is anything to go by, then we have a warm blip before the heat ramps up again

Let's hope not, would be more than happy to have an extended fresher spell.

The Met Office does, and have done for years. The definitions used to be in degrees Fahrenheit, but are now in Celsius. They used to publish them on their website but for some reason they removed them many years back.

In summer (May to September), the definitions are:

Very hot: 8C or more above average

Hot: 6C or 7C above

Very warm: 4C or 5C above

Warm: 2C or 3C above

Average 1C below, average or 1C above

Rather cool: 2C or 3C below

Cool: 4C or 5C below

Very cool: 6C or more below

These are in reference to the latest 30-year period, so locally to me 26C in mid-June would have been hot in 61-90, but it's only very warm these days.

Note that cool (as opposed to rather cool) would mean highs of 17C in London, or 16C in Kent, 14C in Rochdale and 13C in Edinburgh in mid-June. You can add a degree to those figures for the end of June/start of July.

GFS 12Z also has a 36C, but further into Kent.

GFS takes a cooler route after the end of the week though - an 8-9C drop from Friday to Saturday!

The other less scientific term outside of those definitions we use is "Mild". Over here in the UK I would say we always use it to mean it will get warmer from a relative cold spell or temp, so generally Winter but not always.

I have often noticed (vaguely interestingly), given my wife is from Oz so we go over every year, that they use it for the exact opposite, i.e. to signify temps moderating or becoming cooler from the present... not sure how other English speaking countries use the term though.

"Mild" was only to be used in winter - mid-November to mid-March - and has the same definition as "warm" in summer. "Hot" and "Very hot" are both replaced by "Exceptionally mild". 

A phrase Brian used the other day was "all roads lead to Rome" and it is looking that way - whatever happens in the medium term the GFS, at least, wants to bring heat back. 12Z is yet another run with mid 30s before the end.

Yes it would be nice to have some average British Summer weather . Cannot see the attraction in scorching sun and dried up grass and heat induced irratability.

Yes I agree that is our use, interesting how that is not universal

FWIW the mean max temperature in the south on the GEFS 12Z ensemble set is 27-28C every day from about July 10th. That's an amazingly strong signal for a return to heat, that far out.

This hot weather is definitely not over. I reckon there's another 4 hot spells before the end of August and I reckon there maybe another 2 or 3 in September and October.  🙂🙂🙃

Ecm 12z turns very settled ,significant heatwave by the end.