You are now saying ‘we’ve probably seen the best the summer has to offer’.

What evidence are you providing to back up that statement? A hunch isn’t a model - seasonal forecast suggest summer is far from over - and despite the models backing away from any significant heat again in the short term - no reason based on seasonal forecasts that this won’t crop up again.

Be it summer or winter, your posts seem the be very trolly.

But we can look ahead to far 564 is only just leaving the Kent coast on Thursday Thundery low looks much further east looks very usable summer weather for most certainly I would not call the later fax unsettled.

Comments about 4 weeks forecasts are of the mark even for experts let alone us.

Cooler but not cool. There’s not a single day on the GFS op run where the temperature doesn’t reach 22C. 

And the 10 day accumulated rainfall for London up to 9 July is 13mm. 

Indeed. I suspect we will enter a period of 22-24C type weather. Very useable weather.

Yes, cooler. Exactly what i said.

BBC (Tomasz) has just said exactly what I have said, plus "no sign of heat returning any time soon" after Tuesday. 

Is he also "trolling"?

No but I’m sure he’s not writing off the rest of summer in late June either :)

At face value the GEFS spaghetti for London don’t look bad at all. Little sign of a heatwave, but very little precipitation (after a spike around the middle of next week) and mean 850s bouncing around 8-9C, rising gradually to 10-11C.  2m maxima rising slowly from about 21 to 25. 

Well you could be right . We have had a long dry spell in the south and it will change at some point . This could well be it as i have yet to se a forecast predict the true end to a long wet or dry spell.

If it’s not trolling then you’re the other one - your posts are plain stupid

I’m certain he didn’t write off June every day and I’m just as certain he won’t have stated that’s the best of summer over when we’re still in June. 

Seriously Moomin, give it a rest. Don’t bother coming back telling me how much you respect my posts either.

It does look like a more unsettled spell imminent, but even then it’s far from a write off. Staying warm for the south on that similar line that we’ve had for a while. Hints of pressure building again toward mid month, not that that means a lot. It could all change at any moment for the better or worse. 

I agree it looks more changeable into the first week of July. As others have said that has long looked like the case after this current heat breaks.

Relatively cool? Disagree, temperatures look likely to be close to average for most, if not a little above at times further south and east.

Rain or showers? Welcome for those in need but again anything significant looks to be unfortunately reserved for areas further north and west, who don't particularly need it.

I am a little confused about the 'highly likely' Thursday deluge? I'm not one for looking at low-res blobs of precip in the far reaches of the models, instead preferring to look at the ARPEGE and UKV when they come into range as they are far more realistic with actual rain coverage.

UKV for Thursday noon:

I believe you would not get such a backlash if you didn't constantly add sweeping statements to otherwise OK posts. Calling the first week of July cooler and less settled than the present pattern is fine.

Then baselessly insinuating that's it for the rest of the month that hasn't even started yet? Hmm... didn't really work for June that, did it?

Over here, I'm almost quite disappointed to see the mid-week rain getting downgraded to nothing more than a couple of days with some drizzle, my beloved lawn is already starting to turn brown so I could do with a spell of useful rain. It's now northern parts of the UK that is likely to have the lion's share of the wet stuff as we go into next week. 

Until then, in the meantime I'm waiting for sea fog/low cloud murk to burn away so that I can safely break out the garden chair. 😂

It could well be that this will end up being a front loaded Summer and it feels like the majority of Summers have the better weather early on rather than late July into August in recent years. We shall see though as it looks like a spell of average conditions coming up which still likely means a lot of very warm sunny weather at least in the SE.

Yes, 2018, 2022 all were front loaded summers. its been a while since we've had serious heat in August.  Moomin is getting hammered here, but he may well be proved right for the rest of summer. As a heat hater, I certainly hope so!

the GFS 06z  similar to the ECM, but the Azores high never far away. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=234&mode=0 

Is HARMONIE known for overdoing 2m temperatures?

It's showing 32C today, 36C tomorrow and 37C on Tuesday.

I have to say it feels like a potential 32C day today, whereas UKV barely touches 30C. Perhaps today's final values will be a guide...

I don't think the rest of the summer will be awful. All I've said is July looks likely to be a lot more changeable than June.

It wouldn't be any surprise if it was as June has been pretty much exceptional apart from the first week.

The 6z GFS actually rolls back a bit on the changeable theme and looks a good deal better...one run and all that...but probably in the context of what we've seen so far, we won't be seeing another heatwave for a while.

What is Aperge showing, as that has also been going for high values as well. Today feels like a 32C. I’ve noticed that GFS has done a ninja update today with a grid point showing 32C. I don’t remember it going for that last few days 

Edit: to answer your question Arpege has 30, 34, 36 from today until Tuesday (on the lower res charts available for free)

Are the downpours and flash flooding still on for the S.E and East Anglia as forecast yesterday? Clearly some rain Wednesday on the ECM ensembles.

Not exactly huge amounts of rain in the south according to the GFS 06Z. I think it was Darren who mentioned that things often get shunted a bit further north than the models suggest at the mid-range, with heights to the south remaining higher. I think that's a good point, both in winter and summer.

GFS 6Z op run maxima

32, 34, 34, 24, 25, 23, 21, 22, 25, 26, 31, 34, 34, 37, 37

RIP summer 2025.

(Yes I know, just one run - but writing off a return to heat would be risky at this stage)

Eyebrow raiser from AIFS 6z it also builds in the heat GFS style.

 It couldn't could it?....

Has Moomin just done the summer version of the famous “Winter Is Over” post? 

40C incoming, guaranteed 😛 

You've worked me out 🤣

Thinking about your choice of word, ie ‘cooler’, I wonder if that’s the issue here?  If you had said ‘less hot than recently’ or ‘not as warm as now’ it would have sounded much better, IMO.  🙂