And, notably, a continuation of the dry spell. 

12Z ARPEGE has a couple of pixels of 36C on Monday

https://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/runs/2025062612/arpege-41-99-1.png?26-15 

Playing around with the custom view of TWO's UKV output (as the home counties view doesn't include my bit of Kent), and there's a small problem...

Brian, if you happen to see this - please could you add values for Sheppey? I see Canvey has a similar problem, and I suspect other islands will too.

There is a problem with the shape files which I need to investigate. The work arounds at the moment are:

1) Untick the shape files box and then plot (this is using GrADS)

2) Use the Matplotlib option with or without shape files. Matplotlib is slower, so at the moment the grid is thinned. It's not as good for temperatures but is probably better for precipitation

It's possible there's a 37C hiding in the full grid. I won't have time this evening to check.

Showing Sheppey as the hottest spot in the whole region. You're just trolling Darren now... 🙂

That wasn't worth waiting for! 😂Thank you Brian for the workaround, I'll use that for now. 👌

Tonight's UKV shows 35C on Monday and Tuesday I think. 

The last heatwave was hype 40c etc, so will this one. I doubt 35c. But more so, no washout cool June as predicted by some.

So how likely is the June record to fall? Arpege 12z has a few 36c pixels and UKMet UKV 15z has a fairly large area of 36c with a smattering of 37c for Monday 30th as things stand. 

Interesting times.

For the South a good chance, nights have been very warm as well, but this new heatwave is not nationwide

Tuesday now looking just as hot as Monday on most output this morning. Both could hit 35c.

 Also a quick build of HP over the UK after the heatwave seems likely.  Then perhaps unsettled but big uncertainty.  GEM appears to be down this morning 

Encouraging signal I’ve never been convinced of this so called unsettled spell

The ability to ridge and ease of a N:E push 

this summer has so far been outrageous this Spring and Summer thus far

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php 

Many models now seem to be showing Tuesday as the peak of the heat. UKV only has 34C on Monday now I think.

Outrageous isn't the word is use. Alarming is the one. But it's not as if we've not seen enough warnings.

Dry for the foreseeable and (we can but hope) not searingly, agriculturally, wildlife destroyingly hot.

Yes for farmers etc , the general consensus , hopes for cool and wet unsettled spell ASAP, but little sign. I mean down here we don't even get thundery breakdowns anymore.

Horrifying conditions for S.E quarter

UKV has 35C on Monday in western England, but the reporting network there is sparse. I think the chance of a new record is between 20% to 35%. It would be higher if June had 31 days.

Everything in my part of the SE seems to be growing phenomenally well. Warm weather, lots of sun, and quite a few downpours recently. Obviously an extended drought wouldn't be good news but there is some useable rain showing on the latest GFS for the SE over the coming week.

The heat in France is insane next week.  Also Belgium and Netherlands could break their all time highs.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=16&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=129&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Yes crazy heat. For the UK the trend seems to be for the very hottest air to just get deflected away, so I think any chance of a June record is now minimal.

Edit: having said that, the Met Office auto has 36C for St James's Park on Monday https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcpvj00tc#?date=2025-06-30 

GFS 6Z doesn't give us any major heat in July (after the 1st) but sets up a very nice HP by week 2. After some decent rain for all around the 8th it looks like mid-20s for many: prime midsummer weather.

Think it will be very close, I reckon 35c ish . Latest AIFS has 32c both Monday and Tuesday,  you can normally add 3c to that.  

It has the heat hanging on until Wednesday high 20s in SE. Then it goes very meh for the rest of its run. 

Thankfully!

The 76 record will stand then which shows how hot it managed to get back then with a 1.5 degree lower baseline and cooler oceans than at present .

 If the June 76 heatwave happened now i am not sure what colour the BBC charts would be as 25 seems to qualify for quite a dark red and the hyperbole in the news is deeply disturbing but not for the fact that there will be a short heatwave

Off topic but the only hyperbole I see is from the usual suspects on Twitter complaining about the hyperbole (usually with a screenshot of a clickbait headline from the Mail, Express or GB News). No serious organisations are making a fuss.

On the models: the GEFS 6Z update still has a vast spread in terms of SLP for London from about a week out. Very hard to make a call for early July still.

The warmer oceans increase humidty in the atmosphere, which likely is preventing maxima from reaching or breaking record levels (it is easier to heat dry air than wet), but it is also harder to cool down wetter air, hence why minima is rising generally more quickly than max temps generally speaking. I don't think record breaking max temps ae an indication of climate change, but the weight of warmer than normal temps over time most certainly are.