You need to put air-conditioning in your house Darren.  I've got a hot upstairs. It's 29C atm. I'm intending to put air-conditioning in upstairs.  It's horrible and there's every indication we're getting hot spells every year.  🙂🙂

The next two weeks here look like constant sunshine and temps at least 25-30C for the whole period and no rain. Luckily we have aircon in our upstairs bedroom so at least will be able to sleep ok. Unfortunately I can't sit outside in the sun now as I have a few skin blemishes that apparently have the potential to become cancerous and find factor 50 sun tan cream makes my eyes sting and my face sticky for all the dust blowing around. 

For those thinking about air con it is only around a grand to have a unit installed and seems well worth it, one of my best investments.

Good point- nice post. I'll get a quote. 🙂🙂🙂

Shows its not just cold spells that go pete tong! 

Looks like another summer where the heat dome stays on  mainland europe after a brief flirtation on friday and saturday. 

Better set of 0z , much warmer again next week GFS is hot all the way really. Even AIFS is less unsettled and warmer. 

Brief flirtation?

The 0Z GFS run is another 1976 special with a brief cooldown to mid 20s next week followed by 8 consecutive days of 30C+ with no sign of a let up by the end of the run. 

Yes the outlook remains very warm overall. In more detail, hot weather for many gives way to more average conditions for a few days before very warm conditions return for many.

Sadly it looks so. Perhaps not extreme heat but (for those of us brought up on British weather when such synoptics meant nice weather not seared drought) all rather sad. People still say our weather is awful (I was with friends last night who say the same) but it's endless heat every couple of years now -people just don't want to see.

I must say I don't look forward to what summer will bring. It looks like  an enhanced '76 for some. Few people seem to realise you can have too much of a good thing.

If you live in the SE get buckets ready.

GFS OP 00z; HP over the N Sea pulling in very warm S-lies until Sat 21st, when a weak trough drifts up from the south and combines with the Atlantic to give fresher W-lies through to Thu 26th (bur still quite warm and settled esp in the S). A new lobe of HP then arrives from the SW and by Sun 29th this is again over the N Sea pulling in warm S-lies. The evolution is then different with HP settling near NE Scotland and LP over France affecting S England Wed 2nd onwards, but with warm air still in place for the whole country. Hints of a return to W-lies by Sat 5th.

ECM; similar to GFS, but plus a trough embedded in the W-lies passing trough quickly on Fri 27th before the HP returns strongly

GEM; Like GFS but HP arrives from the SW Wed 25th but moving on E-wards and allowing weak troughs to hang around Britain Fri 27th and Sun 29th

GEFS; sharp drop of temps to norm Mon 23rd followed by a steady rise to Wed 2nd, rather warm by then before becoming unpredictable but most probably a little cooler. Very little chance of rain in the S, small amounts at various times in the N, only the far NW can count on getting some.

Overall the GFS ensembles haven't really changed that much over the last few days. A sharp drop in temperature sometime over the weekend was always the form horse. The Op run went off on an extremely hot escapade every now and then and probably messed around with a lot of people's weather apps. My Samsung weather app was forecasting 32C for Sunday about 3 days ago, now it is forecasting 24C.

It's looking like a return to very warm or hot weather during next week across much of England and Wales - generally dry too. ECM op looks to bring more unsettled weather further south and I'll be interested to see where that fits in the ensembles.

Stay on topic. Start a new thread in the FA if you like. 

latest GFS 06z looks hot, so perhaps now a divide with ECM which remains a lot flatter and cooler

Always find it hilarious when back to back runs are so different in FI.

The 6z has gone to showing max temps of 14c out in FI, when the 0z showed 37c.

Proof if ever needed to ignore most of what the models show.

They are no further forward now than they were 15 years ago!!

I think they are better at trends than they were - though I do wonder if GFS has become degraded recently.

Probably the atmosphere is not so much river like at the moment as in flood plain mode. It's easier to predict a river's flow when it is falling  but when the fall is nearly zero the movement of water is more unpredictable?

It drops off later in the run.

Seem to be fewer hot runs in the GEFS too (the 00Z GEFS had another 40C run, P6 - they barely even warrant a mention these days!)

Could be a record breaking dry year even for here in Essex, the driest County in England (I think). At the month end it will be half way and it now stands at 198mm and looks unlikely to increase much in the next couple of weeks. Mean for my station over last 15 years is 673mm and minimum was 432mm in 2022 with high rainfall in the autumn with a couple of others in the 400's.

I'd suggest the outlook is pretty good and looks like a better version of late May/early June where although the charts weren't great at face value, the actually conditions were better in reality. The key difference to that period is that the Azores High looks like being more prominent, and with the heat to the south of us there is a much higher chance of more short, or even prolonged, periods of hot, dry weather.

It’s just one model and it’s wrong! 

It wouldn't take much of a NE-ly if the wind switched that way to bring a dramatic cooling - look at the temps in Scandinavia!

GEM now hotter than GFS for end of next week

To my eyes, things are starting to look more definitively like a proper breakdown is on the cards. UKMO is quite changeable, GFS shows some proper rain in the 7-10 day time frame, not withstanding possible heavy thundery showers over the weekend, GEM is trending much more changeable and cooler at the very end of the run after a hot start. ICON looks slightly better, so all eyes on ECM this evening. 

Edit. Surely one of the coldest July days on record if this 12z GFS verified, which thankfully it won't. 11c at 3pm on 1st July. Laughable. 

I wouldn't mind this. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

The biggest story by far on the model output is prevailing warmth and not an op run on one mile del showing cool conditions for a day at more than 10 days out.

We shall see, but I get the feeling based on the output that these next few days will be the highest temperatures we see until at least mid-July possibly late July.