No one ever says any of this when it’s disruptive  snow and ice 

While we didn't quite get to 40C here on that day in 2022 (local high was about 38C I believe) I didn't find it horrendous at all. It was a very dry heat with a warm breeze and much less oppressive than many "cooler" days we have had.

Regarding the AIFS it doesn't look that bad to me. Yes there is a bit of rain around but it is also very warm. We need some rain anyway - our sandy soil is simply dust, even several inches down.

The climate will continue to warm while greenhouse gas concentrations increase, and for a while after that (assuming humanity has the wit to get pollution under control - I have my doubt). Further, feedbacks are really kicking in now (think forest fires, warming oceans, melting ice).

It would be foolish not to listen to what those scientists, who predicted what is happening now at least four decades ago, are saying now about future decades.

We are on a dangerous path.

Edit: but then the high ridges in again

GFS going for 33C on Saturday on the 12Z. Less LP influence in the south than the 6Z run, keeping 850s a good few degrees higher than on that run.

We had 40c on 19th July 2022 and it was quite scary, although we got through it unscathed.  Trying to keep our toddler granddaughter cool wasn’t easy but a paddling pool under a gazebo came in handy for us both.  I’m not hoping for anything like that again.  Even 30c is too much for me these days.  Give me low to mid 20’s any day.  

Thank you for that link, a fascinating bit of research and confirms what we all knew - things are warming up, and increasingly so, with increased "spikiness", for want of a simple description. It's great news for fans of heat but of course terrible news for our agriculture, amongst other sectors. 

Even in the fantasy world of computer models, we've seen it: just look how often 35C T2Ms or 20C 850s are modelled nowadays, compared to the late 90s (when many of us started looking at the charts). Heck, we've seen more modelled 40s over the UK in the past few days on rogue GEFS runs than we'd seen in the entirety of the Web era, aside of course from 2022. 

The Hull to Exeter line working wonders on the GFS 12z.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=12&time=219&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

The latest output from the Met Office has actually upgraded Friday's possible maximum temperature to around 26°C here in Edinburgh, so we still continue to be on course to get our hottest day of the year do far then.

However, the Met Office forecast for Saturday has now been downgraded to only around 24°C which would then result in our heatwave chances already being scuppered even before the cooler air arrives from the west.

Furthermore, there isn't any actual output which is going for us to actually get our hottest June day on record, so that is looking unlikely and it would appear that the cooler air being modelled to come in slightly quicker than what was anticipated with yesterday's output. With Friday's forecast being slightly upgraded though, it still would not take much of an further upgrade on that to then result in Friday being our hottest June day on record.

As we get further into the summer and towards the actual high summer, more heat spikes can never be ruled out but from how it's looking just now, I would still say that we really had our "summer" in April and May as a result of that being when we had our best and longest sustained spell of dry, warm and sunny weather even if that doesn't actually end up being our hottest time of the year in the end.

UKMO best of the 12s  , HP builds back in very strongly. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukmhd&var=1&run=12&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

AIFS is rubbish again though

Cant believe all the wrist slitting over not getting 40c on here and nw.

It's all standard fare in the end. Lovely to see the heat quickly dissappear Sunday.

I can see that you've been closely following Richard From Aberdeen's posts having used one of his most famous phrases on here.

😂😂😂

Fair point but "Disruptive" Snow and ice is becoming a rarity with milder winters , yet more extreme heatwaves seem to be more common.

UKV matches the ARPEGE with a 36C too...

Indeed , the record is on again.

This really has been a remarkable warm spell, and with another week or more to go any heat fans in the SE will be delighted. Farmers (and heat haters like me) much less so!

As a reminder, the 91-20 average max down here in Kent is 21 in late June, yet the MetO raw has, for Leysdown, right on the coast:

27 (today), 29, 29, 32, 27, 25, 26. 

The 12z GFS has:

27 (tomorrow), 28, 31, 30, 24, 26, 28.

It's warmer inland, of course, and it's fair to say that in the reliable timeframe there's no end in sight to the warm/hot/dry conditions.

And, if anything, it's been trending hotter. Today was forecast as a high of 24 just yesterday with MetO, for example, yet it reached 27...

The models, Mef Office and the apps don't take into account that very dry ground temps give 2-3C higher than forecast and for here had reached 27C  so tomorrow expecting my first 30C.  Ensembles show here going up to 16C then drop back to average before rising to above average again with little rain or none for next 2 weeks. 

ECM 12z op is not great either.

Make the most of the next few days is my suggestion. 

Edit. It improves for the south again at least at 216 hours. 

If you like warm to hot and mostly dry weather you’re in luck, especially if you live in the SE. The ECM shows average temperatures for maybe two days in the next 10 on the 12z ECM. The other days rather from above average to significantly above average.

It's weird the charts look poor but the actual weather in the SE is ok. Poor in the NW though

GFS 12Z is another, on the face of it "less good" run but still gives barely 5mm of rain across the south by 384 hours. 

Quite a different picture further north and west, but HP never really loses its grip down here.

Yep, that sums everything up. Typical summer patterns, nothing exceptional on the cards, but usable weather for the Midlands southwards.

Not that typical to have such an extended spell of high pressure in "high summer". And most welcome.

I just hope it doesn't do its usual collapse when the schools break up.