Funnily enough I was watching Clarkson’s Farm this evening where all the talk was about the unrelenting rainfall, only just over a year ago. How quickly things can change!

On the model front, the model used by iOS (IBM?) has certainly taken a turn for the cooler today. It was showing three 30C+ days this morning but now has just one, barely making 30 before a quick cooldown. 

Things will always change in this country.

We are a small rocky island in the Atlantic Ocean. We get dry spells, we get wet spells. We've had a really wet couple of years and as per usual, nature is now balancing that out.

Twas ever thus, and always will be.

The only thing that is mildly alarming is the relative ease we get to mid 30s these days. But last year, we didn't even record 30c here, it's just the variability of living in a maritime, oceanic and mild climate.

No. I can’t affect it, and I like certain weather extremes. In winter I don’t see people saying “think of the old and infirm on these icy stretches” They just want more and more. 

I'm still hoping for a climbdown to the mid to high 20s but I realise that thread is getting very thin now - if not snapped already.

And now GFS has the cooler breakdown too.

I expect this trend to continue from now to the weekend.

Hope so.  Nothing worse than sweating yourself to sleep. Seems a few nights of that is now baked in already though. 

Another amazing GFS run. After a brief "cooler" interlude the heat rapidly rebuilds.

Yes but I think we are now seeing downgrades for the heat this weekend on GFS with Friday and Saturday just about getting to 30c and then Sunday being the day where we could get to 34c or alternatively the cooler air pushes in more quickly. 

Yes some notable warmth in the model output over the weekend, then maybe a bit cooler for a few days (but still warmer than average probably) followed by more warmth seems to be the trend.

I’m not sure how well the models can or do manage thermal conduction after days of high temperatures with soil conditions being very dry (less conducive) any residual air thermal heat will only increase with time.

A bit like a frosty high air temperature only decrease with time as long as current conditions are maintained.

So I think the current upcoming record attempt will be mighty close as long as cloud cover is not restricted.

Looking at gfs this morning it’s a fantastic summer run with summer pattern hopefully established.

GFS a bit cooler over the weekend this morning. The iPhone model now doesn’t reach 30 at all in the next 10 days after peaking at 33C yesterday morning. 

GEM is a scorcher though and UKM brings the 20C isotherm in albeit briefly. I’d say the chance of a June record has probably gone, at least for this weekend, but there’s still another week of June after that!

Depending which model u choose we are going to get very close to the June record Saturday,  Sunday or Monday.  

Most models have another go at some heat after a couple of days . AIFS is scorchio this morning 

Hot ECM run looks like it would get close to the record on Sunday 

The 00z GFS op run has a max of 34°C on Sunday (in Yorkshire):

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_138_48.png 

Edit: That was easy. There are 35C points. 

Looks good for a brief hot spell. By the end (unreliable, I know), it looks like the Atlantic is about to break through introducing much cooler and changeable conditions. 

Those examples even have Edinburgh at 28 C which will be hard work for the scots! They struggle past 23 C!

240 to 360h is already out on WXCharts. And the Azores HP builds in again but it doesn't get as hot

Out of interest, of course if you know? What data does the iPhone weather come from? 

Based on what information?

I am no expert on reading the charts/model so rely on those who do interpret them.

Reading your recent posts the whole of June would be an Atlantic washout with no ‘summery’ weather what so ever, in fact only a couple of days ago you predicted the rest of June to be awful.

it has been the compete opposite to what charts you’re interpreting, in fact here it’s about day 7 of mid 20’s and for the next 7 days plus (which takes us to 24th June ish) the outlook is nothing but dry warm and at times hot weather, with very little rain ? 

could you please explain for those of us who do not quite understand reading charts how you’re interpreting the output? 

GFS Op 00z; HP from the SW moving across Britain and by Thu 19th established in the N Sea which combined with shallow LP sitting off to the SW generates three days of a hot S/SE-ly flow. This begins to break down on Sun 22nd and by Mo 23rd the driver is LP 990mb Iceland with cooler NW-lies bringing in fresher weather. Then something of a tussle between HP moving up from the SW (1025mb England Fri 27th) being pushed away by W-lies from the Atlantic (LP 980mb Sun 29th) but by Wed 2nd a ridge of HP  from Azores to Norway has moved in.

ECM; keep pressure high after Sun 22nd and re-sets the HP/LP combination for a new plume from the S by Wed 25th (the LP is closer so maybe thundery?). By Fri 27th the Atlantic is more active and cooler W/SW-lies affect at least Ireland and W coasts.

GEM; has a different breakdown from both the above, with pressure slowly dropping from Mon 23rd but no activity from the Atlantic. Instead pressure remains high f=to the W and later N, so from Wed 25th cooler N/NE-lies are affecting the E Coast.

GEFS; In the S, ens members agree on max heat Sat 22nd (10C above norm) with a drop to about 2C above norm by Mon 23rd. Mean temp remains there out to the end of July; op and control exaggerate the drop, even below norm, before going their own ways and turning up as outliers for heat on 26th (control) and 29th (op). Almost no rain; just one or two ens members have noticeable peaks. In the N, warm but not such a peak on 23rd, then a drop to definitely below norm before mean resumes a degree or two above norm with op & control playing games as above, Small amounts of rain possible at any time, more later on in W.

It's one model, one run, but the 0z ECM takes a "slightly" more changeable and cooler route at 240 hours, but that is way out in the unreliable, and with that, it's highly unlikely to verify like that.

As Ally says, the longer term looks dry and very warm to hot, with fleeting cooler blips likely 

With charts like the one below a little bit of caution is prudent. Nonetheless, the signal for further warm or very warm and fine periods remains relatively strong. 

The moral of the story is don’t make predictions based on one run of one model…. But that’s what you have done for years

As others have mentioned there is a suggestion of a brief cool down and then rebuild. Brian has also mentioned a few times over the past few weeks that this “could” become the pattern of the summer

Well, not really no. I look at each run in isolation and look for a trend.

Don't bash me for that Matty, I'm an enthusiast just as you are, I may be wrong more often than right, but in fact, as you often remind me (and others) no model is reliable after about 5 days, so any forecast beyond that is fairly futile. 🙂