But to beat that long June 76 day record would be something else

Rule of thumb created these last few summers is even if just one outlier is showing oppressively hot weather on the way, it's going to end up being correct. 

Interesting with that June record upper look about 16 so not mega

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=27&month=6&year=1976&hour=12&type=era&map=2&type=era®ion=fr&mode=0 

Indeed. The TWO version.

Interesting with all these modern day high temperatures, they are still only in the SE. Edinburgh gets 20-23 C on an extreme day as always 🤔

June records under threat based on the recent runs. Either way it’s an awful and unsettled June. Great call from yourself to pick this up before the models did

Gm very keen very hot 20 uppers from Sunday to Tuesday somewhere  in U.K. 33c given, France in the furnace,

Big pressure build at day 10 from s/w with most of Europe still in the furnace.

ukmo not quite so hot but 20 uppers about 50 miles from the south coast having said that vey nice alignment with the heat pump easily a >30c chart from mr sensible 

Gfs wants to concentrate on energy breaking thru it does so but brilliant recovery with another heat spike later in June.

Wet dreams  for heat fans but still all to play for 

Impressive temperatures at the weekend and an equally impressive tumble next Monday. What oftens happens is the general trend is right but the tumble isn't so sharp initially with residual warmth taking longer to shift. 

GFS Op 0z; HP moving up from the SW and covering Britain 1025 mb Thu 19th. Then a shift of HP eastwards plus Atlantic trough brings up even hotter weather from the south, perhaps with some instability from a disturbance in Biscay. The trough makes slow progress E-wards but by Mon 23rd has a centre 995mb N Scotland with LP reaching south to the Channel. This pattern repeats; new HP cell Thu 26th, trough from the west Sun 29th (less marked and a bit further north in this second iteration), HP back from the SW Tue 1st.

ECM; like GFS to the 21st but higher pressure prevents the trough from developing on Mon 23rd. Instead the HP breaks up on Tue 24th with disturbance (and briefly heat) from Biscay which however shows signs of being swallowed up by LP mid-Atlantic Wed 25th with W/SW-lies.

GEM; like ECM  to 24th but then the Mid-Atlantic LP starts to run further north and HP returns to Britain 1025mb Cornwall Thu 26th

GEFS; temps reaching peak Sat 22nd (ca 12C above norm in SE, ca 8C in north with a brief dip en route), dropping sharply to norm (to cool in W) Mon 24th in most ens members then mean a few degrees above norm but with spread increasing considerably. Small amounts of rain in some ens members from Sat 22nd or a bit earlier in north.

Which means including today that's at least 11 straight days of 27C+ modelled (80F+ in old money), which is pretty impressive for any year.

Yes roasting 6z GFS would break the June record Sunday and Monday.  No real breakdown aswell.

In fact barring Thursday 26th (which shows 29C on the charts, the run of 30C+ days just goes on and on. 30C on Friday, 32C on Saturday, 34C on Sunday and heat still building 

It's as close as you'll get to a 76 run. Let's see what the 6z AIFS says in a few minutes as it's been v keen to break the weather Sunday. 

GFS 06Z is insane. I'd say it's like a remastered version of 76 which factors in the increased background warmth.

Insane is the word - looks like another burst of mid-to-high 30s on the way at the start of July. In fact it looks ripe for 40C by the end.

Having said that, today feels a lot cooler and greyer than modelled, so far.

Most of the GFS 6z ensembles are much cooler though 

It's a shame the run doesn't go out another 12 hours because that's a 42C chart at the end.

The modelled temps show 26C max by 7am on the 2nd at the end of the run. For comparison, on the 1st they show 21C at the same time and max out at 37C!

AIFS 6z still breaks the weather Sunday as do most of the GEFS,  so the GFS 6z Op is probably highly unlikely.  

I would expect a relatively early breakdown as per the ECM AI, but the fact that the operational runs from various models keep churning out hot or very hot runs suggests all cards are on the table.

Interesting times for sure.

Yes the AIFS 6z soon brings back the HP and the heat, but doesn't look record breaking. 

It would be for June though- bearing in mind the standing record is 35.6°C.

I note that the ENS (which wasn't fully out when I looked) still had a mean 3pm temp of 25 in CS England. For the mean to be that high, that far out, is surely a good sign given ridiculously high temps were only shown in a limited number of runs & unable to skew the mean too much.

GFS seems to be churning out mega hot runs every time I check now. Would be very surprised now if the GFS hasn't got this right and we don't see at least 35c recorded.

850hpa temps at 18c- 20c , extremely light winds and the sun being very close to its strongest, into the 90's F widely. 

Some hot international models out there on wetterzentrale. 

It's an interesting scenario. The Ops run has trended hotter than the majority of the perturbations. I usually go with where the majority of the ensemble goes which at the moment is for a cool down after June 21. Of course, it's very possible that the rest of the ensemble starts to trend warmer.