Been watching as a hawk want to get the real heat by 25th as 26th I going to the Philippines so leaving Birmingham at mid 30's to same temps over there won't feel any difference except the humidity is very high there.  Like to see the real heat on 25th while i am here to see how hot the temps at home.

Is it an almighty outlier? This suggests not:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20250614-2040/62/render-worker-commands-585ddcf58c-457hc-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-r50i44e9.png

Crikey is the June 76 day record under threat?

Sublime ukmo as heat continues to build very hot there France and S England

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php 

Indeed,  absolutely roasting runs all round this morning.  Mid 30s definitely possible. 

Good grief I think it is gm at around 180 blistering heat from here there at 180

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=9 

Gfs members starting to see it now around 23rd one member gives London 35c on 25th extreme heat there for June absolutely fantastic 

Day upon day of heat building 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0 

Both ECM and AIFS also show mid 30s this morning. 

Overall though it looks like the chance of some notably warm or hot conditions at times is high.. 

Definite signs of a decent second half of June if you like the heat! 

GFS Op 00z; HP moving in from the SW to cover Britain 1025mb Wed 18th, and as it pulls away SE-wards, something of a hot plume from the south at the weekend. The warmth/heat feeds into the next bubble of HP  from the SW at its peak 1020 mb Wed 25th. This HP moves NW-wards to become a ridge lying across NW Scotland with a change to cooler NE-lies for England Fri 27th. Then through to Tue 1st, Britain indeterminately between warm HP W of Ireland and cool LP over Baltic, each taking a turn at influencing Britain.

ECM; As GFS to the weekend but the next HP never arrives as LP drifts up from the south and by Wed 25th Britain is under slack LP with links already developing to the mass of cool air over Scandinavia

GEM; Yet another different evolution after the weekend; the HP moves east to Denmark with a thundery-looking trough from the south Wed 25th being squeezed out by the next bubble of HP from the SW

GEFS; Becoming warm this week, steadily in the S but with an intervening dip in the N. As indicated above, ens agreement doesn't last much beyond Sat 21st, On that date the temp is forecast about 5C above norm, and the mean then continues close to or a little above norm to the end of the month. But by the 25th there's a 20C difference between the warmest and coldest ens member, and in the S at least the op run goes from 3rd warmest on the 26th to coldest on the 29th. Very little rain at any time, just a bit more in the NW.

Does anyone know what's happened to WXmaps issued by George Mason University, which used to provide useful averages? Several of their outputs all stopped working on May 29th.

GFS 6Z just rolling out and shows 30C as early as Thursday, followed by 30C on Friday, 33C on Saturday, 34C on Sunday and 36C on Monday 23rd!

The extreme heat does seem to be associated with more chance of unsettled conditions later on though.

Definitely some impressive heat showing up at the moment, but 40C remains a long shot in any given year.

ECM ENS Control and one on the Ps show 39C on the thinned grid. I wouldn't be surprised if a number of grid points show 40C. I've got the full data sets but won't have time to plot and check.

More extraordinary is the way we seem to easily reach the upper 30s now. It wasn't until 1990 that we saw 37c breached for the first time. I wonder how many days have seen that since?! I'd say there's a  chance that we might approach that in this upcoming spell.

More show maxima in the lows 20s. Atm 30C looks possible (it is 2025 and 430ppm after all). But 35C looks unlikely atm.

Remember that overall temperatures have warmed by 1.5C, maxima by 1.4C, in the last 30 years - or at least they have down here. It seems that's skewed the bell curve massively to the right, far more than you'd expect from such a relatively small increase, and those mid to upper 30s have become far more common as a result. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/location-specific-long-term-averages/u10eu40xb 

As I said the other day, not too long ago 20C 850s were a thing of myth and legend for the UK, nowadays nobody bats an eyelid. Similarly dipping below -12 at 850 once or more per winter wasn't unusual in the 61-90 period, but these days... it's uncommon, bordering on rare. 

I think looking at gm and ukmo might change members view U.K. days of heat  >30c

France is in the furnace

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=198&mode=19&carte=3 

All ens members in the 06GEFS show temps steadily increasing to the 21s then one by one they peel off and cool down to something more bearable for the rest of the month, the op run being the last to give up, dropping from 13C above norm (=low 30s C) on the 24th to 6C below norm on the 27th and that's a day-night average. 

Another furnace ECM 12z run. Would likely break the June record.

It's been consistent for sure, but it's also been consistently right at the top of the Ensembles with many being outliers.

Doesn't mean it's wrong, but highly unlikely.

Still too far out but I'd say a 30% chance of the June record going in the next 10 days. Ecm mean is the hottest I've seen so far

I think that's a reasonable assessment. There's no doubt the chance of it happening is growing.

June record was set in 1976, 35.6C at Southampton on both  27th and 28th, nearly attained (35.4C) the previous day in Suffolk

ECM may be hot but the GEFS seem to be firming up for a rapid cooldown from about the 23rd with 850s getting close to zero even in the south  

To answer that question, 37C has been reached on five more occasions since 1990 (six in total). 

2003, 2019, 2020 and 2022 x2.