12Z GFS is the first unsettled "British summer" run for some time. I hope it's not a trendsetter.

The GEFS updates have had a slightly more wobbly appearance today I think. With that said, I've not had much time to look at them in-depth.

I know you've had a hunch that this summer is going to deliver, but my hunch is quite the opposite. Why? Because every time we see some good looking summer charts, they are getting watered down and pushed back.

I think a changeable, mixed and rather unsettled summer is far more likely IMO.

Far more likely based on?

You mentioned some watered down charts that haven’t happened yet. Anything else? Genuine question as I’m keen to learn about your research 

Simply this. The charts, particularly GFS, but also now ECM are adopting a cooler and more unsettled look. GFS looks pretty changeable and cool now from as early as next Sunday.

Doesn't mean it will verify, but more likely to than the scorchio charts we saw a couple of days ago.

Why?

Please can you post the link to the models going out the full summer? Thanks ☺️ 

The rest of June looks changeable at best.

I accept there are no reliable charts that write off the whole summer, but that is my hunch, just as Brian's hunch is the opposite. 

Neither can be based on any concrete evidence, but hunches are hunches.

I want Brian to be correct. The hotter the better.

GFS Op 00z; current trough moving away from NE Scotland tomorrow to be replaced by HP covering the whole of Britain from the SW, 1025mb by Wed 18th. But this moves quickly E-wards as a trough swings across from the Atlantic, mainly affecting northern areas, preceded by a short blast from the south. The whole pattern becomes a standard W-ly by Fri 20th. This persists until Sat 28th with LPs quite close to N Scotland Mon 23rd and Fri 27th. After the 28th pressure drops widely over Britain which then lies between two large flat areas of HP, one mid-Atlantic and one in W Russia.

ECM; The trough predicted by GFS Thu 19th is scarcely a ripple and HP continues in charge until Sat 21st. But then the LP Mon 23rd runs SE-wards into  the N Sea  1005mb with cool NW-lies before the westerly pattern sets in.

GEFS; In the S, cooling down, then becoming warm (7C above norm) briefly around Fri 20th, mean temp quickly dropping back to norm  (op & control quite cool for a time). Ens agreement breaks down after 20th, a wide spread of members developing, covering some 14C by the 30th. Chances of rain increase after Mon 23rd, but small amounts, In the N, temp profile similar though less of a peak on the 20th esp in NE. However rain still present today, and starts up again  from Fri 20th with moderate amounts esp in the W, persisting. 

Looks like we could have another go at 30C next week. I've no idea whether anyone has gone for 19th or 20th. Then cooler for a time before the possibility of another blast of heat towards the end of June. One of the things I'm seeing is the tendency for high pressure to build back quickly from the southwest - the Azores HP looks quite robust to me.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=23&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Less extreme heat.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

The "best" I can serve from the 00Z GEFS is 39C. The 18Z update peaked at 38C I think.

We’re looking at different stuff I think. Maybe others below your post are too. I guess that’s possible. 

Eh? Next week and maybe more is dry in the south with temps climbing to mid to high 20,s in places . That will be a good chunk of June.

good , nice Summer weather without the extreme heat which very few actually enjoy especially if it lasts more than a couple of days. 

Rinse and repeat Moomin.

Yup, the MetO raw down here has highs of 25, 24, 25, 26, 25, 27, 26 for the next 7 days, lots of sun and dry throughout. Considering the 91-20 June max here is 20.4, and the old 61-90 average max was 19.1, we're looking at a sustained very warm or hot spell - the sort of thing people love, apparently. 

I find it odd there's not more mention of these very warm spells in the media, but as I've said before people seem to assume the average max is 25-30 and are disappointed if it's not!

I used to collect cacti in my younger years. Always fascinated by them and especially their beautiful flowers. Required hot dry summers and cold dry winters so a greenhouse was the only way you could do it really. I suspect some of them could be grown outdoors here nowadays with our semi-arid climate. Although our mild winter damp is probably an even bigger issue now. 

Can we keep this thread for model discussion please.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0 

Also 

Very hot chart there from sensible ukmo  168 20 uppers surging north into sw hot to very hot in a light Se breeze very impressive 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=168&mode=0 

Gm also sees heat surging into France at that time #

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=9 

Yes the 12s have increased the chances of significant heat again.  

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 

I think your right Brian it could be a special summer if this is the pattern I truly hope so so much promise

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 

Crikey now with cut off flipping heck where’s JIRES

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php 

Fabulous charts tonight folks ecm ends with the eye blink absolutely fantastic 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php 

Seems 24 - 26 June is the timeframe where we could get those 20C uppers into the south.  100F looking very likely and possible 40c again after 3 years wait.

An almighty outlier from ECM, but I guess shows what is possible.