GFS Op 00z: For the first week generally W-ly aspect to the weather so unsettled in the N, fine in the S, with more significant troughs in the flow Sun 1st (affecting mainly Scotland), Tue 3rd (most of Britain) and Fri 6th (mainly Scotland). Ridge of HP to start the week Mon 9th (1030mb E Anglia) drifting E-wards generating strong S-lies assisted by LP mid Atlantic and maybe combining with something thundery over France Wed 11th . New HP from SW Sun 15th.

ECM; similar to GFS but the trough on Fri 6th is a broad shallow affair.

GEM; like GFS but the troughs dipping somewhat further S, and that on Fri 6th slower to clear away.

GEFS; In the S temps dropping back to norm Sun 1st and staying there with good ens agreement to Fri 6th. After that, mean stays near norm with most ens members a little below that but a significant number of runs much above that (e.g. control 12C above norm on Mon 9th). Dry to Tue 3rd, small amounts of rain to Mon 9th but a few runs with big spikes in the SW, very little after that.  In the N, temps never much above norm and even slightly below around Mon 2nd, continuing near norm without the benefit of hot outliers; small amounts of rain at any time, very little in NE. 

They have to and it June so models have to get a grip, more accurate and closer.  This month is very important to get a heatwave while daylight longer and have this embarrassing record 35.6 smashed as it was set in non global warming years ago.  Those lows in the north to sod off to let the heat fully nationwide unlimited. Also not deep cold in the USA to cause all the lows crashing to the north which seem wrong. 

Yes models really struggling atm. But a pretty consistent signal in the ensembles that SLP to rise to something decent again by the 8th.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=23&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 

On the other hand, it all disappears in the distant horizon on the GFS 18z run. 🤣 But as always it's not a forecast.

GFS Op 00z; LPs in succession passing over or close to the north of Britain; Sun 1st 995 mb Faeroes (only affects the far N), Tue 3rd 980 mb Cape Wrath (effects down to N England at first but hangs around and swings a trough across the whole of Britain Fri  6th), 995mb Hebrides Tue 10th. Then pressure rises to cover the country briefly before a passing trough appears 1010mb Wales Sat 14th  and afterwards back to HP again.

ECM; like GFS but the LP 3rd/4th is deeper at 970mb with stronger winds.

GEFS;  as yesterday  In the S temps dropping back to norm Sun 1st and staying there with good ens agreement to Fri 6th. After that, mean stays near norm with most ens members a little below that but a significant number of runs much above that (e.g. control 12C above norm on Mon 9th). Dry to Tue 3rd, small amounts of rain to Mon 9th but a few runs with big spikes in the SW, very little after that.  In the N, temps never much above norm and even slightly below around Mon 2nd, continuing near norm without the benefit of hot outliers; small amounts of rain at any time, very little in NE.

Think I’ll keep that paddle board purchase on hold. 

Good for the farmers, mind. 

GFS Op 00z: A mainly westerly  regime this week with troughs passing close to N Scotland and sometimes extending south as far as the Channel; today 995mb (local to NW), Tue 3rd 970mb (extensive), Thu 5th 985mb (extensive but shallow), Sat 7th 1000mb (ditto). HP then sets up in the N Sea which with LP N Atlantic generates southerlies Tue 10th, rather strong on the W coast, and after a brief breakdown Sat 14th, re-appears centred over NE England 1030mb Mon 16th.

FAX confirms the timings for this week but for Tue 3rd, the fronts weaken over SE England, but for Thu 5th shows the trough more focused, dipping to 991mb Wales.

ECM: like GFS for this week though pressure tends to be higher in the south; the HP Tue 10th fails to materialise and Britain is under a broad westerly flow.

GEFS: For England, temps near norm or slightly cooler to Tue 10th, then near norm or slightly warmer with an increased spread of ens members. Some rain Thu 5th and a few days after, then mainly dry (just a couple of runs suggesting thundery downpours 13th - 15th).  For Scotland, temp profiles similar, rain likely at any time but amounts in NE are minimal.

We took a gamble and came down to Dorset for a couple of nights camping and it’s been far nicer than forecast. I think in reality the weather ok the ground will be pretty decent over the coming week despite a few showers around. 

We will get something on tuesday and then showers for the rest of the week, something more organised on Thursday.  Should be enough to keep the grass green anyway. Not good for Ladies day at Epsom though!

FAX; fronts crossing Britain Tue but weakening as they approach the SE; a couple of minor disturbances crossing England in the W-ly flow on Thu with the second one almost developing into a proper (secondary) depression.

ECM; similar to GFS but manages to squeeze in more action next weekend with lower pressure on Monday followed by a brief ridge of HP Tue 10th

GEFS; On the cool side to Tue 10th then warming up slightly but with a bigger but even spread of ens members, op (and in the S control) being the most optimistic at 8 or 9C above norm. In the S, rain  for a day or two around Fri 6th, just a few splashes at other times. In the N, small amounts of rain at any time.

All still some distance away but more general signs of an improvement, according to GFS, in about 7 days time with pressure tending to rise - initially in the south and then further north beyond 12 days. If only we could rely on this synopsis! 

Yes the dangled carrott heatwave has been very frustrating. Hopefully only a 4 or 5 day unsettled blip here then  NW-SE split then generally more settled and a heatwave.  What could possibly go wrong.

Wouldn't be so bad if it rained in between. Despite them keep saying heavy rain sweeping S.E tomorrow I'll be surprised if I even get 2mm !!

Gardeners and growers are suffering big time round here.

To be fair, you are in about the driest part of the UK with typically between 525 and 600mm a year on average. If you were getting plentiful rain in South Essex, the chances are that most of the rest of the UK would be getting awful weather. 

The 6z GFS has 1.5mm here tomorrow, what a washout! Then 7mm on Thursday, <1mm on Friday, 1.5mm on Saturday and 3mm on Sunday, a total of 13mm by this time next week. Thursday looks like the only genuinely wet day, and one wet day won't do much to alleviate things.

The heavy rain forecast even yesterday for tomorrow (here) seems to have been put to one side by the BBC. Thursday still has heavy rain but I guess it's more likely that it will fall in tiny amounts by then. I'd like to be wrong of course. The recent winds combined with sunshine aid transpiration with no restoration here. Winds have been incessant here once the suns up. Apologies to all further north who have had enough rain for the time being.

Excellent and long may it continue. As a fan of extreme weather I couldn’t care less if some areas need rain. Same as old

folk don’t want 3ft of snow in winter but others do

looks more unsettled for here for a week, but not massively so, and I’m cautiously optimistic for the summer. The drier, hotter and more humid the better