The Weather Outlook

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Chunky Pea
15 May 2025 09:50:32

The lawn which had been holding up remarkably well considering the drought is now beginning to look brown in the sunnier i.e. less shaded areas

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Same. Trimmed the front garden yesterday stems looking more brown than green. Longer grass still looking healthy though. 

Last rain here was on April 27th,  so officially in a drought here. Wonder if it can hold out for the rest of May? 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

speckledjim
15 May 2025 10:30:35

The lawn which had been holding up remarkably well considering the drought is now beginning to look brown in the sunnier i.e. less shaded areas

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Similar here, no rain since 21st April. Planning to cut lawn but may leave it as it’s not growing much 


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
15 May 2025 11:14:41
Much the same here. The lawn has to all intents stopped growing and showing signs of drought. Some roadside verges around here look very parched. All in the last day or so. Quite noticeable.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmknz78n29o 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

johncs2016
15 May 2025 15:53:39
The latest water scarcity report has just been released by SEPA and there is now, not a single area in Scotland which is still at normal status as regards to water scarcity. Indeed, the east of Scotland including Edinburgh has now been raised to moderate scarcity status and there are some places such as in Fife where there has now been no recorded rainfall whatsoever for 4 weeks. Most of the rest of Scotland is now at alert status for water scarcity with the exception of the Western Isles which are now at early warning status.

In some places, the last 11 months in a row have been drier than average and you have to go all the way back to May 2024 to find the last that I actually reported a properly wetter than average month for here, on this forum thus showing us yet again that it just doesn't rain here any more, and that wetter than average months are clearly something which never happen here any more.

In some parts of Fife and Angus, ground water levels are now at their lowest level on record with those records going back around 28 years. Soil Moisture levels are dry to very dry with the driest conditions being in the east and south of Scotland. River and loch levels are also very low. This is only the second time in the last 97 years that river levels on the River Dee in Aberdeenshire have been as low at this stage of the season as they are just now and you have to go all the way back to 1938 to find the last time that this actually happened.

Some models are pointing towards a possible change to wetter conditions at the end of the month but that isn't exactly something which can be relied on and in the context of the current water scarcity situation, there are still no signs of any significant rainfall in the foreseeable future according to any actual reliable forecasts.

This is clearly becoming very serious indeed and without any significant rainfall coming up, this situation is only going to deteriorate even further, especially as we head towards the actual summer itself.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

speckledjim
15 May 2025 16:12:37

The latest water scarcity report has just been released by SEPA and there is now, not a single area in Scotland which is still at normal status as regards to water scarcity. Indeed, the east of Scotland including Edinburgh has now been raised to moderate scarcity status and there are some places such as in Fife where there has now been no recorded rainfall whatsoever for 4 weeks. Most of the rest of Scotland is now at alert status for water scarcity with the exception of the Western Isles which are now at early warning status.

In some places, the last 11 months in a row have been drier than average and you have to go all the way back to May 2024 to find the last that I actually reported a properly wetter than average month for here, on this forum thus showing us yet again that it just doesn't rain here any more, and that wetter than average months are clearly something which never happen here any more.

In some parts of Fife and Angus, ground water levels are now at their lowest level on record with those records going back around 28 years. Soil Moisture levels are dry to very dry with the driest conditions being in the east and south of Scotland. River and loch levels are also very low. This is only the second time in the last 97 years that river levels on the River Dee in Aberdeenshire have been as low at this stage of the season as they are just now and you have to go all the way back to 1938 to find the last time that this actually happened.

Some models are pointing towards a possible change to wetter conditions at the end of the month but that isn't exactly something which can be relied on and in the context of the current water scarcity situation, there are still no signs of any significant rainfall in the foreseeable future according to any actual reliable forecasts.

This is clearly becoming very serious indeed and without any significant rainfall coming up, this situation is only going to deteriorate even further, especially as we head towards the actual summer itself.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Our reservoir levels are at 76% (92% the same time last year).


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Roger Parsons
15 May 2025 16:22:42

Much the same here. The lawn has to all intents stopped growing and showing signs of drought. Some roadside verges around here look very parched. All in the last day or so. Quite noticeable.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmknz78n29o 

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Yes - same here - but it has been cloudy, grey and with a surprisingly cold wind. 13C. No shirt-sleeves today! I've just put on a sweater in the house.


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Bolty
15 May 2025 16:46:00
Still nothing here to the 15th, and given the outlook, we can more or less safely add another week without rain. If it stays dry to the 23rd, then it will be a full calendar month without any measureable rain here, which is pretty extraordinary for North West England.

The field behind me is starting to turn more yellow and parched now.


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

johncs2016
15 May 2025 18:33:51
In addition to what I posted earlier on about the latest water scarcity report from SEPA, there is also this  report from a local news agency which highlights just how serious this situation is now becoming.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Chunky Pea
15 May 2025 19:04:19

In addition to what I posted earlier on about the latest water scarcity report from SEPA, there is also this  report from a local news agency which highlights just how serious this situation is now becoming.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

I get the feeling that when the weather 'breaks', it will remain broken for a very long while. Was listening to podcast by an American Meteorologist this earlier and he spoke of how atmospheric momentum across the northern hemisphere is beginnng to speed up, if just a little, after being in a prolonged slower than average period. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 May 2025 19:54:04
Southern Water reservoirs only a little below normal fro the time of year, and groundwater levels similar though decreasing quite quickly.
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
16 May 2025 07:39:02

I get the feeling that when the weather 'breaks', it will remain broken for a very long while. Was listening to podcast by an American Meteorologist this earlier and he spoke of how atmospheric momentum across the northern hemisphere is beginnng to speed up, if just a little, after being in a prolonged slower than average period. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

We do seem to get locked into a weather pattern much more frequently now than we used to. I mentioned a few years ago that there seem to be roughly 6 week cycles but the end of one cycle can lead to a recommencement of the same weather for the next cycle. We're close to 3 months of the mostly dry, sunny and warm weather. Is it about to break just in time for Summer?


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

David M Porter
16 May 2025 08:14:27
Absolutely no rain at all here this month so far. IIRC, our last rain of any description was on Sunday 27th April which is nearly three weeks ago now. In fact, I could just about count with the fingers on one hand the number of days where there has been any rain at all here going back as far as the end of March/start of April, which is almost seven weeks ago.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

warrenb
16 May 2025 13:11:47
Rain since March 1st

March - 5.84mm

April - 23.62mm this was on 2 days, no recorded rain on the rest

May - 0.0mm

I have had more rain in a heavy shower than I have had in the last 2.5 months


NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
16 May 2025 16:22:31
Unless you are a breatharian and get all your sustenance from the air, I’m sure you can agree that we really need significant rain to get crops growing. Cereals, forage and so on. So I hope this forecast spell of rainy weather comes about. As I've suggested before if this drought continued till September we would find ourselves in unpleasant territory. The  UK ‘76 population was lower than today and that drought caused all manner of supply issues that only stopped with the return of rains at the end of August.

I was at the lakes nearby earlier and the levels are falling fast. Down by about 15cm in the past few days.

I have never experienced such a long dry spell at this time of year in the UK.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Retron
16 May 2025 16:52:47

Rain since March 1st

March - 5.84mm

April - 23.62mm this was on 2 days, no recorded rain on the rest

May - 0.0mm

I have had more rain in a heavy shower than I have had in the last 2.5 months

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

A bit better here, not a million miles away:

March - 6.4mm across 8 wet days

April - 22.8mm across 5 days

May - 1.2mm on one day

The grass is now showing signs of stress (aside from the area where the dog pees - that's lush and growing fast, as I use a watering can to dilute the pee each time he goes). The ground elsewhere is as hard as I've ever known it - as an experiment, I poured some water on a random patch of grass and it just sat there, not soaking in, not doing anything much. It did, after several minutes, finally disappear.

And that means of course that the next time it rains - it'll just run straight into the drains and streams. Hopefully we'll get more than a "one hit wonder" when the pattern breaks.


Leysdown, north Kent
roadrunnerajn
16 May 2025 18:32:11
We’ve fared better than most, due to a couple of stalled fronts in the last 10 days of April.

March 30 mm

April 100.04 mm

May 9.02mm


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
David M Porter
17 May 2025 08:47:03

Rain since March 1st

March - 5.84mm

April - 23.62mm this was on 2 days, no recorded rain on the rest

May - 0.0mm

I have had more rain in a heavy shower than I have had in the last 2.5 months

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

Yeah, March was pretty dry overall where I live too. The only days with rain I can clearly recall here that month were over a few days during the first week (nothing especially heavy though) and then over three days heading into the final weekend of the month.

In April, our only rain was on a few days during the week leading up to Easter and then on Good Friday and Easter Monday, and then again on Sat 26th & Sun 27th April. Absolutely no rain since then, as I mentioned yesterday.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Jiries
18 May 2025 06:54:39
No rain since Easter weekend and further no rain this coming week so still 0m in this area even no weather station i got but not a drop of rain this month, likely to see some rain over the cursed BH weekend after more very dry and sunny week ahead before BH.
johncs2016
18 May 2025 07:16:45
Just yesterday, I discovered this  post on Facebook which shows the Water of Leith close to the city centre here in Edinburgh. The Water of Leith is a small river which rises in the Pentland Hills to the south of Edinburgh before flowing through the centre of Edinburgh (passing through areas such as Balerno, Currie, Colinton, Slateford, Gorgie, Murrayfield, the Dean Village, Stockbridge, Canonmills and Bonnington along the way) and then entering into the Firth of Forth in Leith. The photo in that post shows that this river has now virtually completely dried up with all of the recent dry weather which is very concerning indeed given how early in the season that it still is.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

StoneCroze
18 May 2025 07:39:01
33.4mm
Alderney, Channel Islands. (previously known as Beaufort)
doctormog
18 May 2025 07:50:04
2 mm here so far this month. 

The notably dry conditions may be coming to an end quite soon and many places look as if they will see at least some rain by the end of the coming week.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_168_49.png 


MRayner
20 May 2025 08:19:55
The river spey is now only 7 cm of its lowest recorded. 

The forecast rain May halt its drop 

I have been trying to find when that “lowest recorded “ was, but with no luck, was thinking that it most likely occurred end of summer, (ie no snow melt etc)so this happening in spring is certainly a notable event. Off course when it’s been raining for the next three months , all will be forgotten !! 😃💦


Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL

Chunky Pea
20 May 2025 16:51:35
The first few 'plops' of rain this month dropping down at the moment. Some distant thunder. 

Edit: Funny little shower. Solid clear blue skies to my immediate SW, and dappled summer skies to my immediate N and NE, while it is raining here with some pretty loud bangs. Seems very much like a 'thin sliver' shower. 4.0mm so far. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 May 2025 12:41:53
So much for the little depression delivering any rainfall to central S England. It looked quite promising on last night's charts, and even on GEFS this morning, but the cloud is now breaking up, it's getting brighter, and we must have had all of 1mm of rain, if that. The drought goes on ...

EDIT - spoke too soon. A small thunderstorm at about 1600, enough rain to create puddles but a long way from making up the deficit.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
21 May 2025 14:06:52

So much for the little depression delivering any rainfall to central S England. It looked quite promising on last night's charts, and even on GEFS this morning, but the cloud is now breaking up, it's getting brighter, and we must have had all of 1mm of rain, if that. The drought goes on ...

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Yes.

So the next stab at bringing proper rain is when?

Saturday was a few days ago due to herald a significant change with proper rain but this has now gone for here at least.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2651101 

Saturday will be overcast with the odd spot of rain pushing in from the west, particularly in the afternoon and evening as it turns breezier.

The plus side for me will be the increased winds from the West or SW which will with luck break up the filthy stinky May Bloom along the coast. The recent high sunshine levels have made this year a bad year for it.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

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