Next week we see a return to more average early May temperatures. Very little rain around across most of the UK for the next 16 days according to GFS

ECM - similar, but around some Fri 9th a slight shift of HP N-wards allows colder NE-lies to affect England for a couple of days.

GEM - like ECM but with that cooler outflow over a larger area and sticking to Sun 11th as pressure rises over Scandinavia

GEFS - temps dropping abruptly in the S from warm (v warm in S, 8C above norm) to cold on Mon 5th (8C below norm), mean slowly recovering to norm by Sat 17th with little spread of ens members. Similar drop in N but a day or two earlier and then recovering by Thu 8th or so. Very little rain at any time anywhere, slightly higher chance in the SW around Mon 4th, generally around Thu 15th but many places could stay dry. 

We've had just enough rain to bring most trees into leaf. But the ground is bone dry where exposed to the hot sunshine. GEFS 00z London shows practically no rain in its forecast period (perhaps a few mm on a few days on a few runs).

The hosepipe will be rolled out this evening and put to use for the foreseeable future (until their use is banned, perhaps).

Indeed, two straight weeks of north easterlies over the south east as high pressure sit off to the west of the UK. The most reliable weather occurrence at this time of year.

High pressure centred to the W/NW/N of the UK.

if its cloudy, its going to feel like winter again!

Will  have to fire up the boiler again.  Normally, once it goes off for the summer it stays off until late sept/ October.  But looks like i will need it sunday onwards

I was surprised to see last night's BBC weather for the week ahead being quite bullish about temperatures recovering quickly next week. We shall see 

True for Scotland and the N of England, if you believe the models

GFS Op much as yesterday; current Hp moving NW-wards and declining allowing LP over Scandi to turn winds into the N by Monday, with some delay in the S caused by a weak trough extending from Biscay. HP slowly revives from the SW as the Scandi LP declines and is back in charge by Fri 9th, though the Biscayan trough is still hanging around over France.  The HP then intensifies further 1035mb N Ireland FRi 16th.

ECM (yesterday's 12z, today's 0z not yet available). Like GFS but HP re-establishes sooner.

GEFS temps dip to well below norm Mon 5th but then recover more quickly than shown yesterday, staying close to or a little below norm for a week, then maybe a little above, Almost no rain for the next fortnight, maybe a little in the SW later on

Possibly my most hated weather set-up. I think it was last year that in this corner of the UK we had six weeks of unrelenting overcast with a chilly NE wind that persisted day and night. I was so relieved when it changed to mild westerlies.

GEFS 00z London showing even less rain potential than it was yesterday.

I agree wholeheartedly. Worst kind of set up, beginning with the northerly blast. Even if it's sunny here it's still unpleasant.

Without the two bouts of  recent rain that have already faded into "did that really happen?, the dry continues. I'm not keen to see burnt up landscapes though some are happy enough, and a monster water bill.  The lakes across the road are already falling as the water is sacrificed for the Silverlakes holiday homes lake higher up. Habitat First really?

The models show zero rain for here as far as I can see.

GFS Op - Little change for the next ten days with HP near NW Scotland or indeed over Scotland with LP in Baltic and Biscay feeding NE or E winds down the E Coast and along the Channel respectively. Perhaps a change on Thu 15th (a long way off!) with the HP moving to Norway and pressure dropping over France sufficiently to affect S England. Pressure soon rises again and by Mon 19th Britain is in a col between HP to NE and SW.

ECM - oddly, mirrors the change which affects S England but starts it on Fri 9th rather than Thu 15th

GEM - splits the difference between GFS and ECM and starts to (localised) breakdown on Mon12th, but from the same direction.

GEFS - Temps recovering fairly quickly from the dip on Mon 5th but staying a little below norm for a week, then a little above. No rain to speak of, just a faint chance in ten days or so.

Jet stream strong over Newfoundland and S Spain, these two sections sometimes linking up. What happened to its traditional course across the N Atlantic?

The ground level maximum temperatures are much higher than the upper air temperatures would suggest. Presumably the dry ground, low humidity levels and high sunshine totals are impacting this. The BBC forecast this morning showed highs of 23C in London by Saturday 

GFS Op 0z - No change in the present setup with HP near NW Scotland with N-lies and E-lies at times plaguing the east and south coasts respectively. The first break comes on Sat 17th/Sun 18th when a small LP runs down the west coast and on to France, but the HP is back for the following week.

ECM - similar to GFS, but throw in a ridge to Scandinavia for a few days from Sun 11th which allows LP over France to approach the south coast before retreating once more.

GEFS - after a couple of cool days, temps back to norm and staying there to Tue 20th with quite good ens agreement. Chance (but no more than that) of very small amounts of rain from Tue 13th, maybe a little more around 17th, and a suggestion of showers in the far SW at any time.

GFS Op 00z; pressure remaining high over Britain to Sun 11th when a weak trough of LP extends from Scandinavia bringing cold air across Britain, and then interacting with the Atlantic to generate a large area of LP (remember them?) 980mb off SW Ireland Sat 17th. But it soon runs N-wards up the west coast with warm-looking SE-lies under the influence of Scandinavian HP 1035mb  Tue 20th.

ECM: in comparison with GFS the trough over Scandinavia does not extend to Britain which stays under the influence of HP N of Scotland , albeit with some E-ly influence to the Channel coast.

GEFS: temps soon return to norm and stay thereabouts until Wed 21st, fairly good ens agreement though op is much warmer at end. Bits and pieces of rain in some runs from Sun 11th onwards, a little heavier in the west, virtually nothing in the NE.

GFS Op 00z: HP drifting around Britain in various guises for the next 10 days or so; centred here to Fri 9th, then a col between higher pressure to E and W to Mon 12th; then as a ridge from Scandinavia to Sun 18th but generally with light winds, so sunny and dry, After the 18th the HP moves further north and allows a weak trough to appear in the N Sea before the Atlantic wakes up and a large depression (remember them?) moves in from the Atlantic 975mb N Ireland Wed 21st with a cool circulation covering all of Britain.

ECM: like  GFS but briefly around Tue 13th a slight shift of the HP northwards allows a shallow trough to approach the far SW before the ridge referred to above re-establishes.

GEM: like GFS - the last chart (16th) suggests that as the HP moves N-wards a stronger E-ly is waiting to appear.

GEFS: temps close to norm with little ens variation; perhaps a little warmer around Mon 12th (in the S) and Wed 21st. Dry to Mon 12th, then occasional small amounts of rain in some of the ens members, nothing to be relied on. 

Yes certainly starting to see signs of that from the later stages of GFS, could that be the start of the much awaited Summer deluge.

Early days on this I'd say Brian. The 6Z GFS rolled back on this, and the 0z ECM looks high pressure dominated from start to finish, including into FI.