Agreed and now settling down to milder sunnier weather early next week but still cold night and first time I seen on app showing -1 to 15C range.  Had some rain showers recently that all I got this month unlike recent wet Marches.  Sun had been out for every single day and no full on gloom. 

The sunshine certainly helps. Down here there has been plenty of it this month. Even on a chilly day there is enough strength in the sun to make it feel pleasant. 

GFS Op - HP moving in across Britain (1030mb N Sea by Tue), pushing any disturbed weather SE-wards, towards the Balkans, and for a time milder S/SE-lies for Britain. Atlantic LP drops S-wards 985mb off Portugal Thu 20th before re-forming link with its Parent LP and moving NE-wards to cover (mostly W) Britain with a broad trough 995mb Sat 22nd. This focuses on Scotland 985mb by Mon 24th (and looking quite cold) before filling and taking a tour via Shetland and Iceland to re-charge in mid-Atlantic 970mb Sun 30th. For most of the week from Mon 24th winds are Sw or W but not looking particularly warm. Contrary to WX above, pressure rises in the Med from the 24th and it looks fairly settled there.

ECM - similar to GFS though the  focus of the trough on Mon 24th moves SE-wards to Dover rather than NE to the northern N Sea.

GEM - the trough over Britain doesn't really develop until Mon 24th but then is placed in the N Sea with strong cold N-lies.

GEFS - dry and becoming mild by Fri 21st at which point rain sets in and temps return to norm or a little below around the 26th; quite good ens agreement to Fri 28th. Rain moderate to heavy in S & W, less in NE.

Got up to 12c here today but found it cold, despite the strong sunshine. The relatively low DP's and breeze really can influence the feel of temp. A more humid 12c in January can feel much warmer. 

GFS Op 00z; HP currently N Britain drifting SE-wards to Adriatic by Fri 21st with milder SE-lies setting in for Britain. Pressure then drops to the SW of Ireland and in conjunction with a deep LP  later developing  Wed 26th 970mb Norwegian Sea implies unsettled conditions esp in W and N. The weather then goes zonal with ridges (e.g. Fri 28th)  and troughs (Tue 1st) moving E-wards across Britain then on into E Europe.

ECM: like GFS to Sun 23rd but no sign of LP developing to the north, and indeed pressure rising generally in the W Atlantic 1020mb Ireland by Wed 26th

GEFS: temps increasing to mild by Fri 21st then dropping back to norm or a little below with ens agreement holding until about Wed 26th, a notably wider spread of outcomes in the N. Wet for  few days after the 21st (esp in SW, not so much in E), then  more rain in some runs e in S at the end of the month and in N before then but nothing consistent. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202503160000 

ECM has been excellent at modelling this.

(It may be the final warming rather than an SSW, but it's still very interesting all the same - a very abrupt shift to the summer pattern!)

GFS Op - HP asserting itself over Britain until Sat 22nd when a trough works in from the Atlantic across Britain and intensifies in the N Sea with a return of the N-lies for the E Coast. Then mobile W-lies for a week, deeper depressions in the flow Thu 27th 975mb N Scotland and 985mb Irish Sea Fri 28th, not much in the way of passing ridges of HP as was shown yesterday. But a broad area of HP then Thu 1st over and linking to one to the E of Britain with winds from the south.

ECM - the trough on Sat 22nd deepens and persist to Monday when it slowly moves off to S France with HP over Britain 1020mb Thu 27th. Not much in the way of mobile W-lies or N-lies in the N Sea.

GEFS - mild to Sat 22nd, then a few days of uncertainty between ens members before settling to norm or just below from Sat 29th. Rain in small amounts from the 22nd.

Note - I have a series of hospital appointments over the next month which mean I have to be out of the house by 0800. If the review doesn't appear, it will mean that I woke up late, not that something serious has happened!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24296-Gusty--Steve-Wall 

If you would like to add to the comments, please do so there rather than here. 😊

Thanks for all of your work on doing these daily posts, they are greatly appreciated. Wishing you all the best with the hospital treatment 

GFS Op - current HP sliding off to SE and by Sat 22nd trough from the N covering all of Britain. This slowly moves E-wrd and fills; pressure shows a modest rise for a time but another broad trough is in place for Britain Sat 29th The sequence finishes Thu 3rd with that trough deepening 980mb Latvia and Britain in cold strong N-lies as HP cell appears in mid-Atlantic. GFS week 2 does not match WX! Nor has the 'blowtorch from the Caspian' - see CF's post above - survived to the 00z.

ECM - like GFS but a portion of Saturday's trough breaks off and heads for E Europe to match WX above and by Thu 27th HP 1020mb is positioned over Britain

GEFS - briefly mild this week then from 21st back to norm and staying there with no more than the usual spread on ens run. Rain in small amounts in most runs from the 21st. Scotland gets a drier slot around the 26th and England later on.

GFS Op 00z - current HP gradually fading SE-wards to Greece and by Sat 22nd the previously forecast Atlantic trough is making progress into Britain, by Mon into the N Sea with a touch of N-lies behind it. After a brief Spell of W-lies an Atlantic LP arrives in Scotland 985mb Fri 28th , extending a trough S-wards which develops its own centre 980mb Dover Sat 29th. This LP complex moves off E-wards to be followed by LP 995mb Rockall Wed 2nd which dives S-wards, filling, to Iberia Fri 4th allowing a ridge of HP to develop from mid Atlantic to Scotland to Norway, but the LP is still close enough for E-ly gales in the Channel.

ECM - similar to GFS but pressure gradients are less so no separate centre over Dover, just a large flabby trough for the British Isles, and the subsequent LP Wed 2nd has no well-defined centre though taking a similar track.

GEFS - temps back close to norm from the weekend, perhaps a little cooler Wed 26th, and small amounts of rain on random days from Sat 22nd  onwards. (a heavier spell for the SW around Fri 28th)

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=120&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

This has been showing on and off a few times recently - generally in the central and eastern Med. Starting to come into the reliable timeframe now. 

We really need more dryness to make up for this year after very wet and dull few years and sunshine still very severe short supply so need more of those by removing overcast to be replace with scattered clouds that allow average sun levels. For eg today it is was half nice then suddenly unexpected overcast asap than few scattered clouds that we don’t see anymore. 

Our clay soils down here really react quickly. Following a quagmire of a winter, it's gone from being muddy enough to sink into a bit to starting to crack, all in the space of just over a week. Unlike you, though, there's been 4mm so far this month down here.

Yesterday saw a large diurnal variation here, going from -1 to 17.3 - a little above the forecast. The MetO text forecast last night had 19C as the max in the SE today but the raw had 20 here... this morning's output has 20 and 19 respectively for the text forecast, compared to 19 and 20 for the raw. GFS just has 15 and 16, but it often goes wonky with temperatures, I think the nearby sea messes things up as it'll have to interpolate several grid points.

I would be surprised TBH if we *didn't* see a 21 today and tomorrow somewhere.

GFS Op 00z - current HP withdrawing, one centre to Baltic, another to Greece, while on Sat 22nd a trough Iceland- Britain-Spain is in place. This forms a centre over France drifting slowly E-ward so by Wed 26th a blink-and-you've-missed-it ridge of HP passes over Britain before the next trough extends from Iceland and settles 975mb Irish Sea Sat 29th. This slowly fills and moves NE-wards only to be replaced by another 980mb NE England Tue 1st, and then something shallower in the N Sea Fri 4th.  This model looks to be much wetter for Britain than for France contrary to WX above.

ECM - From Wed 26th the HP is more persistent lasting to Fri 28th, while the following trough skirts the north of Scotland to arrive off E Scotland Sun 30th, the chart then looking much like GFS for the 31st, but achieving this without deep LPs passing across Britain.

GEM - more like ECM, the Hp lasting a day or two after 26th but the subsequent LP runs S-wards across Britain instead of skirting round the coast, moving from 995mb Clyde Sat 29th to 1000mb Wight Sun 30th

GEFS - very mild now, drifting downwards, passing through norm Wed 26th and maybe a little cooler after that. Quite good ens agreement throughout, Rain likely around Sun 23rd and Fri 28th, the latter mainly in the S & W, bits and pieces at other times, but always rather dry in the far east.