Yes I'm looking forward to some nice spring weather over the coming days

But that is the normal seasonal warming as spring approaches, nothing sudden there is there?

06Z GFS continues with the theme. Ensembles largely unchanged in the reliable timeframe.

06z Jet Stream model showing it wafting nicely around to the far North and out of harms way for the majority of us (Sorry if you're in the West coast of Scotland!).

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind&ved=2ahUKEwjekcjk1-WLAxUVQUEAHS-bKLcQFnoECCMQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0dZBbfCFNWSCwK1FfFg8jX 

GFS Op 00z: HP moving in from the Sw and covering a large area typically 1025mb centred English Channel until Thu 6th when making way for broad but shallow trough crossing Britain over the weekend and filling as it goes. HP then reloads until Thu 13th (with the remnants of the trough giving disturbed weather over Spain) . Then another Atlantic trough, this time resolving into a 'slider' depression and affecting S Britain before moving on 1000mb Biscay Sun 16th while pressure remains high over Scotland.

ECM: starts out like GFS but the first Atlantic trough develops centres further south and hangs around so still present Mon 10th 990mb Cornwall

GEM: also treats the trough differently; it extends further south and although moving through deepens as it does so with a short blast of N-lies for the E Coast under the direction of a centre 995mb N Denmark Sun 9th

An interesting comparison test for the three main models next weekend.

GEFS:  in the S becoming mild around Thu 6th then cool Tue 11th as ens agreement breaks up and after that n=mean near norm but quite a spread of ens members (op & Control on the cold side); rain in small amounts in some runs from Fri 7th. In the N temp outlook similar but some heavier rain likely around Sun 9th and at any time in the NW

We'll see if the SSW actually comes off first as earlier in the Winter it was forecast but then didn't happen. And then we can test the theory and see whether it leads to Northern blocking in April.

I'm not sure it'll be an SSW in the traditional sense, as it looks like a final warming to me. Perhaps a brief technical major SSW before, but it's an emphatic signal for an earlier than normal final warming.

Easterlies in spring are, of course, nothing unusual!

Any whiff of the illusive February easterly blast remained just that; an illusion of the charts. 

Daffs out now in force. Could be quite a mild March despite a wetter blip mid month. 

GFS Op 00z; broad area of HP from the Atlantic across W Europe splitting into two centres from Thu 6th ( 1030mb Switzerland and mid-Atlantic) as broad trough develops form the N and moves into western edge of Europe incl Britain, filling by Mon 10th leaving a remnant in Spain. The mid Atlantic HP then extends a ridge over Britain to Wed 12th but is pushed SE-wards by a series of deep LPs near Iceland introducing a period of gales for NW Britain, the S coast just about holding on to more settled weather but with troughs projected further south notably on Sat 15th.

ECM ; next weekend's trough only fills partially and degenerates into a broad area of LP from Mid-Atlantic to Baltic by Tue 11th, no sigh of reviced HP at that time.

GEM; intermediate between GFS and ECM

GEFS; mild until Sun 9th with good ens agreement then mean back to  near norm, consistently in S but more up-and-down in N,  with usual spread of ens members developing. Rain in small amounts from Sun 9th. more in the NW and and extra wet day on the 5th there.

Torwards the end the PV gets split and then there shows a renewed warming over Northern Russia and Siberia into Pole.

Many ECM are going for a reversal now at 10hpa and remain negative.in reverse- but will we at 30hpa? Time will tell?

Quite a drop in zonal flow I must admit.  - I sense winter will hit us on 3rd week of March. - Typical. It's first day of spring today and it's freezing out there.

Anyways - shows the zonal winds @ 10hpa going. in reverse around 10th March and going very negative around middle of March. - We will await to see if there is a tropospheric response lower down!?

This site while supporting an SSW for 3rd week of March puts the major effect over N America (again!) and a smaller piece of the polar vortex over W Siberia. 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/total-polar-vortex-collapse-stratospheric-warming-march-2025-impact-forecast-united-states-canada-fa/ 

GFS Op 00z; current ridge of HP lying W-E across Britain lasts to Thu 6th, when a trough moves in from the Atlantic. Today's treatment of that trough has it lying down the W coast of Britain during the weekend, before sinking S and linking with LP from Russia. New HP develops over Iceland resulting in strong E-lies for S Britain Tue 11th before the Icelandic HP drifts S-wards and settles over Britain 1020-1025mb to Fri 14th, in turn  threatened by a new Atlantic trough Sat 15th especially to the NW. 

ECM; similar to GFS but a touch more N-ly Tue 11th

GEFS; mild with good ens agreement to Tue 11th then temp close to norm with fair agreement to 18th (several cold outliers later on in Scotland), small amounts of rain in most but not all runs from Fri 7th, more probable in W and often heavy in SW

April 81, March 52, March 75 April 2008 .....unlikely but the chances are probably higher than average of occuring this seasons end

GFS Op 00z; doesn't entirely agree with WX. current ridge of HP for Britain lasts (as previously forecasted) until Thu 6th, when it drops SE into C Europe making way for a trough lining up and down the W coast Sat 8th. This trough first develops a centre over Iberia but then turns and drifts NE-ward 1000mb England Tue 11th with some cold-ish air in its circulation and linking with Scandi LP for a light NE-ly drift later that week. Then there is a re-load; Atlantic trough first dropping down to Iberia 985mb Mon 17th before working NE-wards but this time the link to the Scandi LP is more effective and by Wed 19th there are full-on N'ly gales for Britain.

ECM; very much like GFS - if anything pressure is higher over Scotland from Tue 11th so the NE-ly drift is stronger but affects mostly S Britain.

GEFS; mild to Tue 11th with very good ens agreement - then near norm or a little below at first with most ens members following the mean but quite a few significantly colder runs. Small amounts of rain in some runs from Fri 7th. Variation for Scotland, many ens members cold Tue 11th but recovering, higher chance of rain around Sat 9th and Thu 20th. SW England like Scotland in respect of rainfall.

But poor in terms of any proper Spring-like warmth. 😁 Although that said, there is a glimmer of hope at around the 150 hr range with a SE airflow and 16 C uppers nearby over the Low Countries - but not all the models are showing that and I'm sure the relatively cool SSTs around our fair country will scupper that anyway.

Still, right now 9 C is feeling pleasantly mild in sunshine and light winds, may even go on a cheeky bike ride soon.

There's plenty of warmth on offer the other side from you, Ian! The MetO raw has a run of 14s and 15s here later this week, lots of sunshine, and with lows around 8C - a completely different feel to the sparkling crisp sunshine we have now.

That's several degrees above average (which will be around 10C in the first half of March, 91-20 averages). Indeed, I remember in my youth, in the 80s, the first 60F (as the papers called it) would usually be in April - we have a good chance I'd say of reaching that in just a few days.

EDIT: And at the wolf centre yesterday I was out in the sun for several hours, enjoying what will probably be my last time handling those old furballs. I ended up catching the sun a bit by the end of it, despite the UV index only being 2... I thought I'd have been safe! The MetO raw continues to only show an index of 2 for the next few days, although GFS is now showing a brief hour or two of a 3 index.

The percentage of runs forecasting no precipitation, rain, snow, wet snow, sleet, and ice pellets is displayed. An example is below. 

The charts are freely accessible here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 

GEM is showing a min of -4 or so (this matches to the BBC forecast), Arpege is a little warmer at -2c, GFS shows a min of 1c.

As per above this has been same for the last 3 nights where we have been down to -3c every night.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx?