GFS op 00z: LPs tracking from W of Ireland to N of Scotland through to Sat 8th with winds from SW/W, often strong, and with ridges and troughs following each other in quick succession (LPs' deepest and/or closest approaches today 960mb S of Iceland, again Sat 1st, and Wed 5th Faeroes). A pattern change on Sat 8th as LP drops S-wards down the N Sea 980mb S Norway with brief shot of N-lies for Britain, then HP from the SW 1040mb Ireland Tue 11th restoring milder weather while the cold shot goes on to create stormy weather in the Adriatic.

ECM: similar to GFS but LPs often further north and HP trying to nose in to S England, so more settled there and to some extent for UK as a whole; the approach of HP in the S on Sat1st and Wed 5th generates strong gales for NW Britain

GEM: more like ECM with an even more marked rise of pressure for the S before and after Sat 1st 1030mb  with ridge extending to Norway before normal Atlantic service resumes on Tue 4th

GEFS: a couple of wet days in the south in the near future, amounts scarcely noticeable in Scotland esp the E; dry-ish to Sat 1st after which rain in most ens members at some point in small amounts except the NW where often heavy. Mean temp dropping to norm or in the S a little below to Sat 1st, well supported by ens members which then start to diverge. Chance of something milder in the S in the following week, near norm more likely in N.

So, not much in the next two weeks ? Then maybe a slight warming (which has been shown a few times but not amounted to much)? Even if did materialise as a “proper” warming in March and had an effect it would probably not be one that most people wanted.

And that would be a cold wintry start to April as per last year, year before last and April 2022 etc! Typical. That's if it does occur.

On both the OP and GEFS the summary would be dryish, high pressure and at least average 850s, albeit the OP was well at the top of the pack on the latter. Sunshine... I'll hazard a guess based on the last few months but happy to be surprised...

GFS Op 00z: current LP moves to NE Iceland by tomorrow ushering in a long period of W-lies, no doubt with occasional fronts moving across from the Atlantic. GFS follows ECM's lead from yesterday in raising pressure over England. HP is established there 1025mb Fri 28th and comes and goes mostly centred near Brittany. End of run shows a small LP 990 mb N Scotland Tue 11th but until then that area has quite high pressure, around 1010mb

ECM: similar to GFS but Hp may slide E-wards by Thu 6th

GEFS: temps near norm to Sat 1st then in S mild for a week  before returning to norm (but op and control the go opposite ways, up and down respectively. ) In the N nearer norm and more disagreement between ens members. Rain in the S on 27th, otherwise splashes now and then through to 12th exc always heavier in W esp NW.

Yep the zonal outlook has changed and it's looking OK at least for the southern half of the UK. Maybe a bit of Spring warmth as well.

GFS Op 00z: the main LP stays E of Iceland with a W-ly theme to the weather; after a significant trough crossing Britain tomorrow (Wed) HP is the dominant influence for Britain and W Europe for the next two weeks, typically 1030mb around the English Channel. A couple of approaches by LP from the Atlantic Sat 8th and Thu 13th freshen up the wind from the S but make no progress against the block.

ECM: like GFS but with stronger W-lies for N Britain and at the weekend the Atlantic trough arrives a day earlier (Fri 7th) deeper (970mb) and closer (just off W Scotland)

GEFS: In the S cool to Sun 2nd with a day of heavy rain on Wed, then mild or very mild to Sun 9th with good ens agreement, then the usual scatter and the mean retreating to norm though op stays mild. Dry after Wed until rain in some runs from Sun 9th. In the N near norm and dry at first but rain starting Wed 5th in the west and quite heavy at times; the mild weather is less marked, less prolonged and less consistent. 

It's been interesting to see how that chart has changed each time I've entered the thread! It looks nothing like when you originally posted it.

(PS - thanks also for your analysis, Q)

Edit: the full range is Rain, Freezing rain, Snow, Wet snow, Mixture of rain and snow, Ice pellets, Freezing drizzle 

GFS Op 00z: starting with a gentle W-ly and trough crossing Britain today, Hp building in from the W and lasting to Thu 6th typically 1025mb English Channel. Then (as predicted by ECM yesterday but missed by GFS) Lp moving in from Atlantic in two stages, eventually 995mb Dorset Sun 9th (conflict with WX above?) Ridge of HP then appears SW=NE across Britain from Atlantic to Norway while the LP moves on to Corsica, slowly drifting bodily SE-wards with Atlantic threatening to resume Fri 14th.

ECM: like GFS - Hp positioned a little further S for this week, LP confirmed for the weekend Sat 8th 1000mb Cornwall

GEFS: In the S, rain today, cool to Mon 2nd, mild or very mild and dry to Fri 7th with good ens agreement, after which a variety of ens outcomes, mean near norm but +/-6C available and some runs with a little rain (far SW, heavy 7th-9th). In the N similar though no sgnificant rain today - ens members much less well agreed on temps and small amounts if rain from as early as 5th in some runs, always more likely in NW.

Now that's interesting - it'd be fascinating to see those broken down on charts in the future. Maybe white for "snow", the current purple for "wet snow", orange for "ice pellets"? Not sure about the "rain and snow" or "freezing rain/drizzle", though, but it'd be useful to see those broken out too.

That would make the product a definite step above anything I've seen elsewhere. The distinction between snow and wet snow would be especially useful, as the former would be more likely to settle as opposed to our usual slushy wet stuff.

One thing I've noticed is that some ECM plots available on third party websites appear to show too much snow, probably because they're not factoring in what I've mentioned. (I won't name them.)

Select UK - Precip from the page linked below to view (no login needed)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx 

That's super - as far as I know, that's unique on the Web, too. Thank you! 👏

I've just updated the North Atlantic ppt charts using the same formatting. It's quite interesting to look at the ppt types around Iceland.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx?run=00&charthour=3&chartname=eur_precipitation_rate&chartregion=eur&charttag=Precip%20type 

I'll echo others comments - that's a really nice facility/chart to be able to access, thank you 😁

Now all we need IMBY is some wintry weather to test them, which seems rather unlikely for the foreseeable future.  

Output wise I must admit I've moved more towards my usual spring/summer hibernation mode as nothing overly exciting was on offer and I think that remains the case IMBY. As Picturesareme mentions we are looking likely to have a nice dry and increasingly mild/sort of warm spell over the next 7-10 days before it looks like potentially turning more unsettled again. It does look like the mild/dry stuff will  extend to a large chunk of Scotland too even if not quite as strongly as down south. 

Similar here with little rain in the forecast over the next 10 days or so, which suits me just fine!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_240_49.png 

GFS Op - LP slowly moving away today, HP moving in from the SW typically 1030mb England to Thu 6th when it moves a little E-wards and an Atlantic trough approaches. That splits with the S portion running down to the Pyrenees and the HP, recharged from the SW, is back Mon 10th until Fri 14th when deep LP near Iceland starts to take over.

ECM - similar though split of LP 6th puts the larger northern portion near NW Scotland.

GEFS - In the S, cool now, becoming very mild around Thu 6th with good ens agreement, mean then near or a little above norm but with a few V cold outliers. Some rain in some runs around Sun 9th and Sat 15th. Similar in N, fair agreement of ens members but leaves out cold outliers. Always more rain in NW incl extra period on Wed 5th.

Could change in the next 90mins but looking to be a decent spring-like spell coming up. Hopefully rain doesnt spoil the show like it did with last weeks mild spell.

Like today and Tom sunny weather is very welcome and glad no less cold wet easterly anymore.  The more sunny days this coming Spring the better is and this morning for the first time properly warming up indoors as conservatory are back in business to warm up free with heating costs rapidly cut down a lot since the easterly spell.  As long no SSW occur then we safely get though this time. 

Hah, we're at the time of year when the final warming hoves into view. The ECM has it as being late March this year:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202502260000