GFS Op - to Mon 24th, LP moving NE-wards close to NW Scotland (closer than shown yesterday) with SW-lies, strong and especially so FRi 21st and Sun 23rd. From the 24th, the LP sticks near Iceland and winds go round W-ly with troughs in the flow affecting all of Britain Wed 26th and Fri 28th. Then a deepening LP runs further S-wards, 955mb Malin Sun 2nd and continues while filling to the Irish Sea to make way for a large area of LP covering all of Britain 975mb Tue 4th, and another 980mb Thu6th,  rather cool with air originating in the far N Atlantic.

ECM  - like GFS but pressure somewhat higher in the S after the 24th so maybe a few fine days there until Sat 1st when one of the troughs deepens and takes over from the parent LP as it passes Scotland and brings in NE-lies behind it

GEM - much as above

GEFS - any milder weather disappearing by Mon 24th, followed by a fairly tightly packed scramble of ens temps either side of norm. Rain from Thu 21st, heavy to the 25th, a slightly drier patch (not much in evidence in the W) then more heavy and continuous from Sat 1st. The east coast sees relatively little rain compared to the rest of Britain

If you're referring to Retron (his real name is Darren as far as I know), you'll find that he posted on this week's current conditions thread (a thread which he posts on very regularly these days and which you once used to be a regular contributor to yourself back in the days when those were daily threads rather than weekly ones) at 07:21:47 UTC this morning, so this should confirm that he is OK.

It may therefore just be that he hasn't posted on this thread for a while so I wouldn't be too concerned about that.

There is nothing much to post about other than the outlook is awful. No one wants wind and rain. 

Exactly,  the outlook is very Zzzzzzonal!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Indeed, a spell of zonality for at least the next two weeks looks nailed on unfortunately. Won't be anything of interest for cold weather fans or mildies/ spring hopers either.

Yep complete snoozefest,  it does look milder though so hopefully the garden will start to come back to life.

[img]https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202502120000[/img]

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202502120000 

So much interest to see how the deep cold progress as it now on the way to hit Cyprus and ensembles had been very rock solid for a week now without a single downgrade, backtrack, push back or cancel the cold spell.  Expecting day time maxes to be low single digits inland like 4-5C and 7-8c over the coasts.  Snow possible in Nicosia as there some precips on the coldest ensemble peak as well.  Any snow fall will be powdery in nature due to low dp and origin than here that was slush puppy snow which i counted this winter another snowless winter again.

To Retron just imagine this above ensembles was on our side here we would be having a nice drop to -15 to -20C for few days and slowly rising back to normal.  That would give us beautiful -5C day maxes and well below -10C at nights if cloudy with snow or down to -15 to -20C during clear nights over snowfields.   One day will happen just when?

And at +264z the 18z shows all OF NE America and Canada including New York city plunged into the freezer with -28 - to -30c 850's  Which could go for daytime maxes of -15c to -20c if that chart/Set up came off - well I never. 🥶

But this cold airmass will hit the very warm N. Atlantic SST's off the eastern seaboard, and consequently blast up the jet to bring the UK/NW Europe more cyclogenisis once YET again!

Heh, thank you - I'm fine, it's just that as others have said there's not much to comment on at the moment. The models always seem to handle these zonal wet and windy spells well, and even if they're a degree or two out, or the rain's an hour or three later, it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. I always find it more interesting when unusual weather is involved, and that's when I'll pore over the charts, analysing what's going on. Otherwise it's a cursory glance a couple of times a day.

One of the things I have noticed, FWIW, is that the GEFS still has a few cold stragglers in it most runs, and has done for the past few days, ever since the return to milder conditions was shown unanimously. It's unlikely to happen, and even if it did it's not really cold enough for anything outlandish down here, but it's a small glimmer of interest in an otherwise unexciting outlook.

GFS Op 00z - LPs moving from mid- to N Atlantic until Mon 24th with unsettled SW-lies for Britain, esp strong on Friday. The LP area then settles near Iceland and the British weather becomes more W-ly with troughs and ridges passing over. From Sat 1st one such trough sticks and deepens with 980mb covering most of the country 980 mb Mon 3rd with N-lies following behind. This slowly drifts across to Scandinavia and there is a reload on Sat 8th. Any HP stays to the SW with cells breaking off to visit Greece in week 1 and Kazakhstan in week 2

ECM - similar - some extra SW-ly gales on Sun 23rd, and the trough on Sun 2nd (Mon 3rd?) is more localised, 985mb Clyde.

GEFS - the generally mild weather disappears around Mon 24th then down-up-down over the following week but not far from norm; mean continues near norm from Mon 3rd but with increasing spread of ens members. Two spells of heavy rain (esp in the S, not much in NE England/Scotland) ca Sat 22nd and Tue 24th, then on and off in moderate amounts for the rest of the forecast. [color=var(--bs-body-color)](Note - MetO says 23rd not 22nd)[/color]

The only things coming back to life in  my garden after the recent cold weather are the weeds, and with the outlook being persistently wet I won't be able to get out there to deal with them. As others have mentioned earlier in this thread,  some dry weather to allow the ground to dry out would be much appreciated, and there's only the occasional day or two of that on offer at the moment.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=28552&model=gfs&var=201&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1

 From very cold to just to average by the end.  It really make me wonder why GW are not limiting their deep cold in other places which should be now.

Secondly and I am sure you realise this Jiries, or hope so at least but not sure in reality. 

This is the difference between a continental land mass climate (e.g. the US/Canada), a climate where there is ample opportunity for cold to spread with limited warming sea influence, whatever climate you may want to call that (e.g. Greece and some of its islands) and a truly maritime climate (e.g. the UK) where pretty much every direction has water surrounding it for a long distance.

Greece obviously has the option for very cold air coming from the North or East with little to no sea to warm the airmass, the islands obviously have a sea but the airmass starts colder and has less time for it to warm before it hits the sea. 

The UK is different in that even a true northerly has a lot of relatively warm sea to travel over before it hits our island, and even an Easterly needs to be potent from a very cold Euro airmass for the North sea to not warm it enough to cause most of us disappointment.

Hopefully that makes sense Jiries.

May have to dust down the mower early - (as a posed to the sledge) with temps expected over the next few days, although not much growth to date - unlike the last few Februarys. 

I'm expecting our mower man to be in touch today for his pre-season check! 😁😁

GFS Op 00z: weather for Britain and near Europe dominated by LP, with unsettled conditions obviously greatest near the LPs. To Wed 24th, LPs running NE-wards off the coast of Ireland with mild SW-lies; then settling to the north with wind more W-ly, taking troughs, ridges and fronts briskly across Britain. . The main LP is closest around Wed 5th with W-ly gales but it also projects troughs S-wards more strongly Sat 1st and Sun 9th.

ECM : like GFS but the trough is a day earlier Fri 28th with a transient  ridge of HP following.

GEFS: mild-ish to Thu 25th, cool-ish to Sat 1st, then mean near norm but with a fairly wide spread of ens members, op & control often amongst the mildest. A couple of pulses of very heavy rain for the S & W over the weekend, less marked in the N & E, dry-ish for a while then most ens members have rain from time to time in March, heavy in the W.

Here's to a cold wintry April I bet now we will have an SSW next week looking at 10hpa temps model and ECMWF zonal wind: - This could be the one that splits the PV.

Thanks Blake! Glad you appreciated my take on things.

Anyway the GFS0Z is a big suprise, that came out of nowhere.

Compared to the 18Z we have a big upper level ridge that has appeared and seems to have germinated a scandi high.

GFS Op 00z: As the main centre of LP moves from W of Britain to N of Britain, the wind goes round from a mild SW-ly (gales tomorrow, Sun) to a cooler and quieter W-ly. On Sat 1st an LP appears in the W-ly flow and slides SE-wards past Cornwall 1000mb while at the same time (new development!) HP re-appears over Scandinavia 1030mb , persisting to Mon 10th and attaining 1045mb at times. Frustratingly this looks like being a repeat of recent faux cold, with E-lies on the southern side of the HP never quite reaching Britain (coldness sometimes diverted to S France) while the W coast continues to experience Atlantic SW-lies. 

ECM: does NOT have the 'slider' on Sat 1st but instead develops a major conventional LP 940mb reaching the area S of Iceland Mon 3rd, drifting slowly E-ward and affecting all of Britain by Tue 4th.

GEM: more like ECM though the LP referred to is only 975mb and near St Kilda with a long trough extending down the Irish Sea to Cornwall

GEFS: mean temp flat near norm through to Mon 10th, supported by most ens members until Sat 1st after which increasing divergence (the op takes a dive at the very end in the S but the control rises sharply in the N!). Wet tomorrow esp in S, then bits and pieces of rain from time to time, lesser amounts than shown yesterday generally though always more frequent and often heavier in the W.