It was only 3C yesterday and that was in the Strand where I was!

Unfortunately 50% of the Yanks can't get their heads round it because somebody stupidly called it "global warming" so they don't get "climate change"!

Yes, my geography book in the 60's showed East Anglia as the snowiest part of England (possibly as well as the N.E) but I'm sure Norwich was stated as the snowiest City. 

Extremely well put yet there are still certain politicians, as you say, saying "drill, baby drill". Maybe we need a near mass extinction to sort it out.

the block to the east is showing signs of returning, though it is a long shot. some runs do keep that cold SE feed going all week

GFS Op - weather through to Wed dominated by LP staying W of Ireland - once today's cold weather is shunted off to the north, a nong period of SW-lies (LP a bit close that yesterday so more chance of fronts moving N across Britain esp in the W (SW=lies particularly strong 20th and 24th. From Wed 26th winds go round W-ly and alternating ridges and troughs cross Britain. 

ECM - similar to GFS though from Sun 23rd the LP is a bit further off and Britain more affected by HP from the S.

GEFS - becoming mild around Fri 21st with most of any rain around this date in the S, spread over a longer period in Scotland, before temps drop back to norm. 

One observation I would make about this winter is that, Storm Eowyn on 24th January plus a couple of storms that affected more southern areas late last year aside, this winter seems to have been pretty quiet for the most part and the atlantic does not seem to have been especially active compared to a lot of recent winters. February thus far has been somewhat colder than what the model runs plus the MetO's thoughts from late January seemed to suggest, plus January's overall temperature came out as slightly below average in contrast to most recent Januarys.

I think the problem there has been this winter is that what blocking there has been has often not been in a position that has been favourable for widespread notable cold. There was a pretty cold spell for about 10 days after New Year where we had lying frost every day that week and temperatures struggled to get much above freezing, if at all. The current spell has been cold but not especially, and I think that has largely been to do with so much cloud cover preventing nightime temperatures from falling too low.

I think it would be a fair assumption that had this warming verified ( noting the position of the vortex so close to the UK) then we could have been looking at 850's lower than the infamous easterly of Jan 87, and colder than the 2018 beast. Alas it was not to be, but I am sure it will happen again.

One question which has often come into my mind since 2018 is would the Beast event at the end of that February have happened at all had it not been for the huge SSW that took place around the middle of that month, if I recall correctly. It may well have, but my memory of discussions that took place here at that time is that it was given a major shot in the arm by the SSW.

Amazing how it stay firm cold and no downgrade, backtracks, push backs or cancelled like here but at least here going to be nicer and finally leaving this nasty less cold easterly very soon.  Just wish London/Nuneaton emsembles were like Nicosia by showing down to -10 to -15C for nearly a week.  

I defer to the experts, but I dont think it would have reached us without the SSW. We might have had a similar situation as we see now with the cold air going south instead of west 

GFS Op - cold air reluctant to leave the east coast but by midweek milder air from the S under the direction of a mid-Atlantic LP for all, perhaps preceded by snow on highest ground. The LP continues to Tue 25th, mild and even warm in the SE, more unsettled and cooler in the NW, windy from the SW esp Fri 21st. Trough anchored tto the N crosses Britain Wed 26th, after that winds go round more W-ly with the usual zonal pattern of alternating troughs and ridges.

ECM - similar to GFS but Atlantic LP closer to Britain so the unsettled weather reaching into NW England as well as Scotland. The trough arrives Tue 25th rather than Wed 26th. Neither models show  fronts which are likely to be embedded in the SW-lies.

GEFS - in SE very mild around Fri 21st, back to norm Fri 28th after which ens agreement breaks up with wide divergence. Small amounts of rain from the 21st onwards. In the NW, similar temp pattern but rain from Wed 18th and rather heavier. Rain also heavy in SW from 21st.

Just for old times sake 😎

I feel very sad watching that. We will never see the likes of it again. Yes, I know Feb 2018 but that was a freak event caused by the record SSW and it didnt last very long and produced only a small amount of snow.  Feb 2009 had a lot of snow but it was not very cold and there was constant melting at low levels.  The snow we had in the old days felt different.  No drip drip drip

Small amount of snow? We had a level couple of feet from 2018 and much deeper than that in the drifts that went up to the ground floor house windows. Only 2010 rivalled in the new Millenium 

That late Feb 2018 "Beast From The East" completely bypassed Folkestone and after a icy morning with freezing rain it turned out quite Spring-like sunny in the afternoon, it was the single most frustrating weather event I've ever experienced.

This satellite image on the 28th Feb '18 shows the stark contrast in snow cover across Kent . . . 

Anyway, back to about the models. Looking forward to the milder temperatures but sadly likely to come with a trade off in the form of typically damp and breezy conditions, however it should feel positively balmy in any sunny breaks we do get to have compared to today.

The daytime high of -4 for London really stands out - even the most outlandish GEFS outliers don't get close to it these days, a -1 or -2 is about as good as you'll ever see. 2018 was the last time it happened, and that took record-breaking cold for the time of year. Dewpoints were in the -10 range, which means no drip--drip--drip.

The other interesting thing is seeing just how hard it is to get subzero dewpoints here on the coast by day. We currently have one (-0.3 as I'm writing this), as the result of a traditional easterly - but of course the deep cold air is nowhere to be found, we're relying on importing that shallow dry/cold layer from the nearby Continent. Even so, the GFS confidently has a -2 dewpoint right now, MetO has -1.2 and ECM has -1.4... all of them have overdone the dryness of the air.

You're correct there Matty, I walked to work in thigh deep snow, (500yrds) my shift manager on the other hand got stuck in his Land Rover three miles out from Radstock and decided to walk the last three miles, only a handful made it in so they tried not to pay everyone else, they failed just because the snow was so bad and the manager was a total idiot.

Fantastic post throughout, but this bit is beautiful imagery 👍