👍👍

At least it makes a change from the usual SW'ly stuff!

The 12z suites so far are interesting, as we have GEM and GFS ops now showing a prolonged spell of ESE'lies and SE'lies, all the way out to day 10 - then GFS has a low disrupt instead of making it NE'wards across the UK. It's only a couple of days later that normal service is resumed.

The MetO run, on the other hand, has much more of a southerly component as early as day 6.

The difference between the two would be stark. In the GFS/GEM outcome, we'd have an Arctic airmass, with sparkling sunshine, low dewpoints and a wintry feel, with a growing risk of snow as the Atlantic tries to return. The MetO version, on the other hand, would have an maritime Atlantic airmass with rain sweeping across the UK as early as the weekend, continuing into next week.

Two very different outcomes, and I think it's fair to say February will be defined by whichever side wins!

EDIT: And I see the MetO midrange update today is sensibly hedging its bets, with the outlook from this weekend onwards saying:

Southeasterly winds are likely at the start of this period. This will maintain below average temperatures and often cloudy conditions. There is a chance of even colder conditions developing temporarily, which would see more wintry showers, especially in eastern parts of the country. Meanwhile, Atlantic frontal zones, bringing milder conditions and rain, will attempt to move in from the west or southwest.

That is, IMO, a superb summary of the model output today.

If only a low would develop over the Alps we would be in business. The cold air is almost in touching distance but it can't make the final push.

Currently 2.8C and D.P -1.3C

It's painful isn't it! So close to something genuinely decent. Bit like today currently 2c and pi$$ing down.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/28/19915/animnzo6.gif 

😉🤣

No, my point wasn’t about any of the individual parameters, it was the more fundamental point that the tweaking of the opening position that is the basis of the ensemble runs cannot, and is not intended to, deal with how the pattern actually evolves.  As time moves on we all know the actual state of the atmosphere will not look exactly like any of the model output for any given point in time, so the ensembles become progressively less useful.  How else do you explain the way the ensembles can suddenly flip?  It’s because the atmosphere has not behaved as the models suggested: a new set of signals/data means a new starting point and a new test of how stable the new evolution might be.

🙂

We're are due odd one out being correct to rival the 40c seen over a week out.

Would be nice, wouldn't it? Pert 29 still has -10s over the country the following Saturday... bonkers, as that's 7 days' worth!

So it's the American models vs the European models tonight!

EDIT: The 12z GEFS actually has 11 runs which hit -10 or lower for London, which is more than any of the previous 4 runs.

Should had been today the start of the proper cold and snowy weather onward but instead I see parents and kids sleding and enjoying the snow in Troodos today which should be here today if the models didn't take away from us.  I see the 12z ensembles seem boring and no proper cold but less cold to average temps. 

Wish the easterly do one and go away is not bringing deep cold, snowy weather or sunny clearances.

Troodos is 5,800ft in elevation. It gets snow every winter.

After Thursday this week the 850mb temperature in this part of the world doesn’t drop below -1C for the entire (extended 360hr)  run. 

The ECM ensemble for London shows the Op was at the top of the spread from this weekend at the 850hPa level

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres&mode=1 

Clearly the milder cluster dominates but there are still some cold options there.

Slightly contradicts your post from 12:36 today, lol

LOL, but not if you understood the context of that post against the context of this one.  Maybe you missed the difference in your eagerness to do a Matty? 🤔😉

Yep, that’s a big shift toward a less cold outcome. Obviously. 

As per last night, the 18z GFS Op and various ens members show a very unsettled outlook 

Good if the from the west more chance of sunny days between lows.  East winds don’t allow sunny clearance for some reason.