Somehow managed a Devon Loch !

Its so close though, and those other models probably would bring the cold air in eventually with that monster arctic high splitting the trop polar vortex. Over the last 48 hours the real cold has got closer and closer; we are one small adjustment away.

I feel something special is coming.

It's why I always look for a -10 at 850 before I get excited. Yes, you can get proper snow with less, but down here it invariably depends on advecting an already cold boundary layer from the Continent. Without that, you need proper deep cold aloft - today is an excellent example of why.

Incidentally there are some 80s-esque members in the GEFS this evening, including the control. The op? Much less snowy, but even that still has easterlies and SE'lies over the UK at T+240. It's shaping up to be quite a prolonged period of winds from an easterly quarter, unless the MetO op is right. Traditionally that would mean snow aplenty down here in due course... but we're in different times now! It's fascinating output, anyway.

How odd that we get more snow and easy to snow from the NW like if did in 2021 despite longer sea tracking.  I actually prefer this than the east now no sun, less cold temps and cold rain is not the chase is for. 

The GFS ensemble is very encouraging though. You don't often see the ensemble -850mb mean so far below the climatological mean that far out.

Wow. ECM is very very very good.

Deep cold!

Hmm, people would do well to remember what happened this time 20 years ago when a much respected member from Cumbria made the very same comment!

The MetO may well be right about a change to milder and more unsettled weather later in February, but IIRC in late January they seemed to be fairly sure at that time that February would be mostly mild and unsettled from start to finish and they made no mention then of any possibility of a cold spell.

Anyone who thinks they can confidently call what happens later in February based on current output is either brave or foolish in my view, or maybe both.

Oh yes - the jet diving and a serious chance of an undercut low, which will increase advection of the deep cold, and deliver deep convection precipitation a la 1987, post t240, if this verifies.  

Very true. That said, I was still quietly hoping that today would be more interesting in my locality. There was some relatively heavy ppt for a while, but it was mostly rain with ice grains mixed in at times

JMA is actually even better around then, though it seems to pull a victory out of the jaws of defeat.

I think just 10 years ago we would have had snow cover southern England today. Perfect conditions, just too much GW

When that model speaks, I listen. 

Talk about hedging your bets!

I think we all know that “GENERALLY” cold patterns are over-egged, and I’m seeing charts posted at the fabled ten day range again for the umpteenth time

meanwhile under an easterly waft we have rain here in the now timeframe and nothing of any interest in the reliable 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=147&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

The NH view looks impressive:-

Looks a bit poised between the Atlantic nudging in and stopping the cold and undercutting and dragging cold over properly. 

Friday night in’it?

The GEFS is a real Hollyoakes soap

opera of drama - from warm early spring to snowmagedon.