If/when we do get an easterly it’s going to be painful to get there!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

If/when we do get an easterly it’s going to be painful to get there!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

As already mentioned by someone in here, my end of the woods is already under what is actually the perfect easterly type set up complete with convective streamers pouring in from the Hook Of Holland, but sadly most of it are light rain with perhaps sleety mix over high ground. It's only the brisk wind that is making the current 5 C & 2 DP feel quite raw. I expected all that and yet still cannot help feel disappointed. 🤣

The lack of deep cold to tap into and the higher than average SSTs are telling. Today's winters certainly are pale shadows of their former selves, it's one of the very few reasons why I'm glad to have been a 1980s teenager where I got to experience drifts taller than me here at my coastal location. Still, a skeg into the models are showing not that much in the way of stormy conditions for a while. Roll on for the first bit of actual Spring-like warmth, but even there's little of that on offer in the medium range outputs.

Originally Posted by: idj20 

As already mentioned by someone in here, my end of the woods is already under what is actually the perfect easterly type set up complete with convective streamers pouring in from the Hook Of Holland, but sadly most of it are light rain with perhaps sleety mix over high ground. It's only the brisk wind that is making the current 5 C & 2 DP feel quite raw. I expected all that and yet still cannot help feel disappointed. 🤣

The lack of deep cold to tap into and the higher than average SSTs are telling. Today's winters certainly are pale shadows of their former selves, it's one of the very few reasons why I'm glad to have been a 1980s teenager where I got to experience drifts taller than me here at my coastal location. Still, a skeg into the models are showing not that much in the way of stormy conditions for a while. Roll on for the first bit of actual Spring-like warmth, but even there's little of that on offer in the medium range outputs.

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Technically we already have an easterly😜

I don't think the general theme has changed still today. The ECM ens are fairly consistent re cold 850s being possible but less likely both in the mid and longer term. Unless the ECM suite starts moving towards a colder solution and the GEFS maintain or improves on the 0z over a few runs I think the favoured solution remains us being on the edge of HP to the east and mostly average to chilly or a gradual return to a more atlantic driven pattern, with much milder air. (I might start copy and pasting, only so many different ways I can find to say the same thing!). 

Depending on whether you want cold or mild, it's a pattern that's very close to your desired outcome, albeit may not get there. I'd guess we should start to get a bit more certainty over things over the next 2-3 days although if the HP remains to the east longer term then I imagine the cold tease could carry on for a fair while yet. 

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

 Roll on for the first bit of actual Spring-like warmth, but even there's little of that on offer in the medium range outputs.

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Rather surprisingly almost half the 06z GFS ensemble members for here deliver a cold spell at some point in the second half of the run.  By cold I mean approaching or below -10c 850hPa values.

The op was mostly at the top end of the ensemble set for 2m and 850hPa values and again the median was below the mean.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Technically we already have an easterly😜

I don't think the general theme has changed still today. The ECM ens are fairly consistent re cold 850s being possible but less likely both in the mid and longer term. Unless the ECM suite starts moving towards a colder solution and the GEFS maintain or improves on the 0z over a few runs I think the favoured solution remains us being on the edge of HP to the east and mostly average to chilly or a gradual return to a more atlantic driven pattern, with much milder air. (I might start copy and pasting, only so many different ways I can find to say the same thing!). 

Depending on whether you want cold or mild, it's a pattern that's very close to your desired outcome, albeit may not get there. I'd guess we should start to get a bit more certainty over things over the next 2-3 days although if the HP remains to the east longer term then I imagine the cold tease could carry on for a fair while yet. 

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

A week ago, this weekend was not in the UKMO range and the GEM showed this:

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/archives/2025013012/gem-0-216.png?12 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

A continuing cold theme is not without support from the ECM ensemble suite though?

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=0&y=0&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&type=2&mode=1 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

As already mentioned by someone in here, my end of the woods is already under what is actually the perfect easterly type set up complete with convective streamers pouring in from the Hook Of Holland, but sadly most of it are light rain with perhaps sleety mix over high ground. It's only the brisk wind that is making the current 5 C & 2 DP feel quite raw. I expected all that and yet still cannot help feel disappointed. 🤣

The lack of deep cold to tap into and the higher than average SSTs are telling. Today's winters certainly are pale shadows of their former selves, it's one of the very few reasons why I'm glad to have been a 1980s teenager where I got to experience drifts taller than me here at my coastal location. Still, a skeg into the models are showing not that much in the way of stormy conditions for a while. Roll on for the first bit of actual Spring-like warmth, but even there's little of that on offer in the medium range outputs.

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Springlike warmth is more likely in the first half of winter. We are in that time of year now where tropical airmasses tend to struggle the most to either reach these shores or sustain themselves for too long. Consistent fridge like temps until 2nd half of April I'm afriad! (maybe earlier for you given how south and close to the Continent you are)

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Spring-like warmth in February is unusual, but not unheard of. I've recorded 18 C on the nose on 26th Feb 2019. But even anything above 10 C will feel pleasant in direct sunshine and calm air at this time of the year as the noon sun climbs that little bit higher above the horizon. The latter half of the 06z GFS OP run gives me that bit of hope.   

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Decent start to the runs from ICON with potential sliding low and cold uppers close by

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

GFS and ECM ensembles were though.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Rain, sleet and ice pellets here this afternoon with ~ -7C 850hPa / 526 dam. Presumably the North Sea track is kiboshing things. Perhaps the breezy conditions too.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The GFS is bitterly cold from about T+216h onwards. That is a proper BFTE.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Not just the N Sea, which is perhaps a degree or so above the mean. It’s primarily the lack of cold at the surface from the source out east. Gone are the days of -20 2m temps in Helsinki or Oslo. With those values we got snow with just -5 uppers. Now we’re drawing in positive 2m temps so it’s a fair way off being a snow producer. With sub zero 2m temps and -10 uppers the warmish N Sea would actually benefit us in terms of convection. Now it’s a curse as it’s mixing out the already very marginal airstream and we’re left with graupal and sizzle and general misery.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

GFS and ECM ensembles were though.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Rain, sleet and ice pellets here this afternoon with ~ -7C 850hPa / 526 dam. Presumably the North Sea track is kiboshing things. Perhaps the breezy conditions too.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze