Historic CET summary for February

1981-2010 (30 years) 4.39C

1991-2020 (30 years) 4.89C

2001-2020 (20 years) 4.87C

Coldest since 1970 most recent coldest in top 5, 1991

1986    -1.00

1979    1.30

1991    1.60

1983    1.80

1985    2.20

Warmest since 1970

2024    7.78

1990    7.3

1998    7.2

2002    7

2022    6.9

Last 5 All significantly warmer thsn average

2024    7.78

2023    6.5

2022    6.9

2021    5.3

2020    6.5

So will February continue the trend of extraordinary warmth for the time of year or will this January's more seasonal cold prevail. Answers as ever by PM to me by midnight on the 31st January - penalties will apply thereafter. Good luck all!

My guess this month is 4.95c 

I think so too, although a little milder due to longer days.  

The past 12 months have been horrendous for the extended NWP model guidance - I've been misdirected unusually often and wonder how different 2024's error would have been had I completely ignored them.

I would be interested to see the 1961-90 through 1991-2020 averages , I'll bet it's shot up !

Ahh, thanks. Dug this out from an old thread. 

Historic CET summary for February

1981-2010 (30 years) 4.39C

1991-2020 (30 years) 4.89C 

2001-2020 (20 years) 4.87C 

5.2 to the 1st

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.7c above the 91 to 20 average

Thanks Rob - I've added this to the original post. 

Here's a thought: Winter months with long spells of high pressure are probably (among?) the most challenging to estimate the CET for. Consider the high sensitivity of temperatures to the wind speed and cloud cover, versus more mobile weather setups where the wind moderates the temperature range. Summer months with heatwaves might be on par, difficulty wise.

No entry from ARTzeman ?

Or daily temperature updates for the last few weeks.

Thanks for flagging this. I've just checked and he's not logged in since 11th January.

Is anyone in touch with him away from TWO? He's always seemed such a nice guy. But I know he was retired and advanced in years.

It isn’t like him not to post daily figures on here.  I’m not in touch with him outside of TWO but I do hope he’s OK. 

Yes and of course, Arty was always a regular contributor not just on these threads but also on the precipitation threads and the current conditions threads, especially back in the days when those were daily threads rather than their current weekly format.

Indeed, I can remember regularly looking at the precipitation threads throughout each month and finding it very interesting to see who would post the highest rainfall totals between Arty and Bolty (who lived in Manchester at the time). and the subject of walking in the rain has always been a big part of his signature at the bottom of his posts.

I was also looking back at the archives of this forum and from that, I discovered that Arty even used to be a regular contributor to the monthly final statistics threads back in the days before I even started posting on there myself, let alone creating those threads myself but that is something which he hasn't done for a number of years as far as I know.

Nevertheless, even this was showing that he was probably already starting to contribute slightly less to this forum over the years as a result of his advancing age but like everyone else on here, I sincerely hope that he is fine and in good health regardless of whether or not he decides to post on here again.

5.4 to the 3rd

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.9c above the 91 to 20 average

5.9 to the 4th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 91 to 20 average

5.8 to the 5th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 91 to 20 average

5.3 to the 6th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 91 to 20 average

4.8 to the 7th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 91 to 20 average