P03 on GEFS shows where it could go wrong

Very unlikely to pan out as shown of course but met office mid range text is not without encouragement. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Awaiting ECM 12z

No surprise after the midnight ECM ens which clustered higher after the 11th.  Next set will be interesting to see if it trends back  again.

FWIW the ECM run at the surface doesn't properly reflect the warming uppers IMBY, albeit it does warm up a touch. Annoyingly it's immediately after it snows, which would be a little irritating in the unlikely event it verified as shown. The T360 chart from the ECM is 'interesting' with a substantial cold pool gradually nudging towards the UK, albeit probably reliant on the HP orientating correctly for it to make it rather than being diverted off south. It's a far more impressive cold pool than round 1 has available though and would if it made it to the UK genuinely deserve comparison with more impressive past events. All academic at that range of course but nice to see that an 'iffy' run has some cold air, some snow, never really warms up to more than 'chilly' and has the potential for a significantly improved second bite of the cherry.

I guess at least it now seems highly likely we're sailing over the first hurdle, which was getting HP far enough west and orientated well enough to get some cold uppers in - that was looking a touch iffy a couple of days ago to me with a more plausible outcome being the UK being between the 2 airmasses. Now all we need is the cold pool to be a touch more extensive, get lucky with some convection and to avoid a quick return to milder upper air before we tap in to a reloading cold pool and we'll be laughing. Easy🙄

(I'm trying not to remind myself of the easterly that never was from a few years back😂)

Oops indeed.  The position and alignment of the Scandi high are key and the 18z shows how it can all vanish very quickly if either of those aren’t right.  Plus, there’s no Arctic high on this run, so the prospective second shot doesn’t even get started.

Indeed - we have seen it all before but on the plus side the 18z Op run was one of the mildest runs. We still have 1 weeks of colder weather if the second shot doesnt get started (5th - 12th)

Awaiting the 00z.... interesting times. - On the plus side the strat is warming up and it's not as bitterly cold off the eastern seaboard of USA/Canada compared to the last cold spell we had during first week into 2nd week of January. NE USA looks mild actually so at least it won't go and blast up the jet off the eastern seaboard and give us cyclogenesis.

Yes looks like the chances of the second much more interesting easterly are fading this morning.  Still time for change of course.  Maybe some flurries with the first easterly but unlikely to be much more than that.

It could be a robust relaxation of the signal, it could be one of those NWP blips that occur and indeed did a couple of times in the lead up to the 2018 event - we’ll just have to see how it develops. An easterly tug is on for the weekend so feeling cold in most places. After that it’s very much open to debate still. 

MOGREPs look a touch 'meh' this morning with a lot of 850 scatter from 8th Feb onwards, although the T2M (or 1.5 in that models case) temps remain clustered suggesting HP will be influencing things, just whether it's situated to allow a feed of cold uppers is up for debate. 

As it's FI there's still time for things to move back towards a reloading scenario, which remains present in the GEFS for example but it looks  less possible this morning than it did.  Will be interesting to see what the next couple of days show for the longer term and in the shorter term I would guess it'll be a case of getting lucky with little features developing over a 48 hour or so window when the coldest uppers move through, before milder upper air gets involved and it's back to chilly rather than cold. ECM for example shows a messy feature moving up from the south east on 10th Feb, which leaves a sporadic covering from the far SE through to Wales.

I think stripping out the noise, aka nice charts with a better cold pool/feed, the initial part of the upcoming pattern looks broadly consistent with what the charts have been showing for the last couple of days - chilly/cold for many as an easterly flow picks up. Things though don't currently look as promising past that point, in terms of reloads/longer cold feed with the positioning, shape and orientation of the HP serving to push cold too far south, leaving the UK under fairly chilly or possibly cold surface air but not much else. 

GFS Op 00z; HP at first to the east with SW-lies and weak troughs for Britain. Then strong growth of Hp 1040mb Britain Wed 5th soon moving to Finland 1055mb  and initiating a period with SE/E-ly winds and local cold pools from the continent flirting with SE Britain. From Thu 13th the Scandi HP starts a tussle with LP west of Ireland, with Britain in the middle and winds going round S-ly. By Wed 19th the HP has collapsed but leaves a weak ridge over Britain still holding off the LP, pressure rising to the north with a suggestion of something much colder waiting its turn to move W from Russia. 

ECM; like GFS to Wed 12th when the Atlantic LP is elbowed aside by a new HP cell from the S, 1040mb Denmark Thu 13th and covering a broad area including Britain.

GEM; makes more of a HP reload from the N Atlantic Sun 9th (present but not as strong in GFS) and then at the end Wed 12th the HP is to the N of Britain and LP well to the SW so stronger E-lies rather than S-lies.

GEFS; in the S soon dropping to cool then cold (6C below norm about Sun 9th)  mean resuming near norm Thu 13th with fair ens agreement - no significant pptn until then and that as cold rain more likely in SW (hint of snow flurries about 9th). In the N, a couple of differences, a little rain early on, and the dip to the freezer interrupted by a couple of milder days around Thu 7th. 

I have given up hoping for snow before next winter! 🙄

Not necessarily, it really depends on where that cold goes once it leaves the US. The cold might not even leave giving a 'both sides of the atlantic' cold spell.

if the Americans want the cold and snow which always come from Canada Justin should charge them 25% tariff tax!  I see now 2C for here next weekend but need to remove this less cold temps to get to subzero I am after in next few days runs.  Such more fun and powdery snowfalls at subzero temps.

From this:-

To this:-

Variation on a theme of course and I expect there will be some ens members that have the HP sat so that cold lobe is heading SW through the med and Atlantic fronts are pushing milder air towards us.

Still, pretty looking set of pixels 😉

Edit: the HP starts sagging after that but does bring -13c 850s to parts of the south. Imagine that'd be a touch chilly albeit I'd guess quite dry given airmass origin and direction.