For London:

at T+280 0/32

at T+240 2/32

at T+300 2/32

at T+360 3/32

If you lower the bar to -8 you get up to 7/32 at T+240

If you use the height of the 0c isotherm as the guide and use 250 metres then that gives 5/32 at T+240 and 9/32 at T+300.

I remember he posted that he going away on holiday this time ? He mentioned during early Jan.

The models tease the possibility of special sypnotics, in the  form of a Siberian or Scandy high… 

…but what matters most is a total void of cold air to our north east.

Some very high hurdles to overcome but it’s possible a classic Kent & Sussex blizzard could come out of the current output. 

But temps need to lower over the continent. 

Yup, I'm in Tokyo for another couple of days. (It's been sunny and very dry - dewpoints in the -10 sort of range. Funnyily enough the Japan Met Agency forecast persistent snow today, settling to a depth of 3cm, as a low moves in; the Euro models just had rain. And as I look out across Tokyo Bay on this gloomy Sunday morning - it's chucking it down with rain.)

Were I back home I'd have been in two minds as to whether to start an ensemble watch, truth be told, but it does look intriguing. At the moment though the real cold is such a long way out any number of things could happen in the meantime. Hopefully it'll all still be there when I'm back home on Wednesday!

True - Moscow reached a balmy +7c yesterday. 

Enjoy the break, looks more interesting than usual. Am sure you can bring back the cold rain 😂

Checking with Rovaniemi, they will see -24 and -12 max on Tuesday but rising very fast to 0C next day and then around -2 to -3C maxes and -7 to -10C at nights seem too high for the Arctic circle regions so that risky for us here if the winds come from the NE mean will be less cold temps here around 4-5C while uppers only -8C.  Need to see those regions to be -30 to -40C like it did in Feb 1991 to bring real subzero temps in the UK with uppers down to -15C which is much needed to ensure subzero 24 hours a day.

Nice to hear from you Darren, seem there not much snow this year in Japan as you said mostly sunny days there.  

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/runs/2025020118/graphe3_10000_220_248___.gif 

The 00Z GEFS control is the trendsetter 😉

GFS Op 00z; HP to the SE maintaining a SW-ly flow for Britain (unsettled in NW?) until an HP cell appears 1040mb England Wed 5th. This moves on and intensifies NW Russia 1050mb Fri 7th and a SE-ly , sets in over Britain importing more or less cold air from S Russia. The HP moves closer to Scotland Sun 9th and wind goes round more E-ly for a while before the HP moves N 1040mb Sun 16th; wind back to SE but much colder air from the NE then appearing in E Europe.

ECM ; like GFS though HP delays its appearance until Thu 6th

GEFS; dipping to cool Wed 5th then good ens agreement on cold (2 or 3 C below norm) until Wed 12th.  (Scotland rebounds to mild for a day or two after the 5th, then less agreement and not so cold nor consistently so) Ens members then vary, op mild but control v cold with mean close to norm. A little rain the NW at first, also appearing in some runs in small amounts later.

Indeed , 80s esque. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=0&time=360&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Wish the date line was tomorrow as this will give Thames streamers for SE and here from the wash.  Those charts need to come down those dates not push back delays hopefully.

Indeed, but the AIFS run is the perfect example of the two bites of the cherry with the first easterly in a week being the hors d'oeuvre and the second one being the Beast. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1