The Weather Outlook

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Lionel Hutz
23 January 2025 22:14:01

Dry slot seems to be currently developing. Hints at a sting jet formation. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

I don't think that's been flagged very much on the forecasts so far but those things are hard to forecast very much in advance. Where do you think it might affect most if it develops?


Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



scillydave
23 January 2025 22:21:37
So unless the forecasts are wrong this storm is shaping up to be at least as powerful full as Ex Hurricane Debbie back in 1961 (top gust 113mph at Malin Head) and possibly more so - something akin to the 'night of the big wind' back in January 1839.


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

johncs2016
23 January 2025 22:25:22
The latest forecast from the Met Office for Edinburgh Gogarbank is suggesting a highest wind gust of around 85 mph at around 2 pm GMT (14:00 UTC) tomorrow afternoon which will be the highest wind gust which I have ever reported here on the TWO forum if that comes off.

According to that, we're still likely to see gusts of over 50 mph there even as late as midnight so tomorrow night is still likely to be a wind and noisy one here even with tomorrow night's winds not being as strong as they are expected to be during the day.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Bolty
23 January 2025 22:58:32
60 mph gusts forecasted for tomorrow IMBY. Interestingly, the forecast also goes for a very sunny day. 60 mph winds with bright sunshine will be a very strange experience, if it comes off.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Lionel Hutz
23 January 2025 23:18:04
It's certainly started here, I can hear the wind roaring in the wood behind our house. I'm hoping that it won't get too much worse but I do expect that there's worse to come.
Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Lionel Hutz
24 January 2025 00:26:32
https://www.rte.ie/news/weather/2025/0123/1492604-storm-season-ireland/ 

Interesting piece on our current storm.

Mind you, I feel that it won't get much worse where I am and won't be all that bad here. I suspect other areas will not get off so lightly. 


Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



The Beast from the East
24 January 2025 01:18:24

Surprised you think the Burns Day storm was a Northern storm.  It was definitely a southern storm . Most deaths in the South. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I remember it well. Was at school and the teacher was very concerned about our safety getting home. At the time we all thought it was very exciting. I do remember struggling to stand in the wind.  I slept through Oct 87, but I do remember the roar and howling but didnt bother to get up. Only when the lights didnt work in the morning that I realised it was serious


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Chunky Pea
24 January 2025 03:02:35
They have begun to sing. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Matty H
24 January 2025 04:17:10
It’s windy enough here to have woke me, so I wonder what it’s like in the areas that are due to be actually hit by this
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Chunky Pea
24 January 2025 04:19:22
Strongest gusts / mean (Met Eireann) at 3am: (kts)

Mace Hd. (West Galway) 80/63 

4am:

Mace Hd. 94/73. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Retron
  • Retron
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 January 2025 04:26:13
A quick check this morning and xc shows 72 to 92 as the highest on its "current conditions" map, at Mace Head in western Ireland.

This is the most extreme (in terms of wind) aviation forecast I remember seeing.

TEMPO 2403/2407 26050G85KT

That is for Shannon airport in the Republic of Ireland and shows gusts up to 98 mph. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

And as of 3 AM, the beginning of that "temporary" period, it was 56 to 78 - it remains to be seen whether that increases, but even 78 is high that far from the west coast (it's around 30 miles away).

The prize so far goes to the Galway port weather station, which reached 99mph earlier, with a 1-minute mean of 77mph - equivalent to a Cat 1 hurricane. You can see the observations below, it's the classic '87 scenario of a wedge of warm air passing rapidly through (12.4C at one point), followed by a rapid cooling and rapid increase in wind strength.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ICOUNT100 

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/galway.jpg 

UserPostedImage

I would imagine 100mph winds in a built-up area like that would have caused extensive damage.

Stay safe all!


Leysdown, north Kent
Chunky Pea
24 January 2025 04:28:56
Whole town plunged into darkness now with some serious power flashes going off. Could be lightning mixed in too. 

Edit. Winds really beginning to make some serious noise now. Pressure now rising. Would estimate frequent gust speeds of around 60 to 65 knots. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Retron
  • Retron
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 January 2025 04:39:05

Whole town plunged into darkness now with some serious power flashes going off. Could be lightning mixed in too. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

You're probably seeing overhead lines shorting out, a sight which was common here in '87 apparently. I think you're experiencing the same sort of winds as we had back then - make sure to save your phone battery in case you need it! (Bear in mind phone masts only have a short battery backup, so if there's widespread power cuts you'll lose phone signal in another couple of hours - hopefully not though!)

It might be worth filling up some buckets, containers or even your bath with water so that you can flush your loo should the power cut become prolonged (as the pumping stations require power too, it's why there were water cuts in places back in '87 too). Hopefully you will avoid any structural damage to your home, and that goes for everyone else on here too!

The 4 AM updates are starting to come in and Mace Head is now reporting hurricane levels of wind - 84 to 108. Phenomenal, and a once-in-a-lifetime event.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/mace.jpg 

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
Chunky Pea
24 January 2025 05:22:48
Mace Hd gust of 99 knots at 5am. Nearest stations to me, Atherny and Claremorris (I sit between both) gusting 75 and 66 knots respectively. Sounds about right. 

Yep Retron, kettle, saucepans and bath now filled. Good advice. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Retron
  • Retron
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 January 2025 05:26:50

Mace Hd gust of 99 knots at 5am.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Mace Head has, according to Met Eireann, provisionally set new Irish records for both strongest sustained wind and strongest gust. I can't imagine many people are still asleep out there this morning!


Leysdown, north Kent
Chunky Pea
24 January 2025 05:29:49
Retron mentioned the wild temp swing there earlier. Something I didn't spot myself. Got down to 2.8c here just after 10 last night, and had risen to 11.2c  by 1.15am, which has since dropped to a stable 6.0c. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Tim A
24 January 2025 06:20:06
Was 2.7c here during the heavy rain (which could have been snow with a few adjustments), now 9.8c and dry.  Wind picking up,. around 50mph now.
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Chunky Pea
24 January 2025 06:52:13
Still gnarly enough out there with some major gusts, but I think it is fair to say that the models seriously overestimated the strength of the wind here. Still a while to go yet, but there is a long way to go to break any longterm records, either regarding sustained wind or gust speeds, in this part of the west of Ireland at least. 

Mace Hd has only been reporting since 2003 I think and is located in a notoriiously windy spot anyway. I dare say if it had been around prior to the start of the centrury, it would have recorded higher speeds than today. Either way, no reports from either Mace Hd or Belmullet on the 6am reports. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
24 January 2025 06:52:40
It’s recycling bin collection day here and the road is lined with wheelie bins. I was woken by a loud crash about half an hour ago and have just been out to retrieve our bin and its contents from the road. It’s not the only one that’s gone over and there is loads of recycling rubbish blowing about the neighbourhood. A big cleanup needed later but of course some people won’t bother.
Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

doctormog
24 January 2025 06:57:24

Still gnarly enough out there with some major gusts, but I think it is fair to say that the models seriously overestimated the strength of the wind here. Still a while to go yet, but there is a long way to go to break any longterm records, either regarding sustained wind or gust speeds, in this part of the west of Ireland at least. 

Mace Hd has only been reporting since 2003 I think and is located in a notoriiously windy spot anyway. I dare say if it had been around prior to the start of the centrury, it would have recorded higher speeds than today. Either way, no reports from either Mace Hd or Belmullet on the 6am reports. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1882659454346510488 


Chunky Pea
24 January 2025 07:10:10

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1882659454346510488

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Not sure if that is the best measure, given the two different locations and geography?

Shannon is likely the nearest reporting station to Foynes (which I don't know is even reporting anymore) and its max gust so far is 74 knots, or 137 km/h. The 7am report may up this a little. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Bolty
24 January 2025 07:12:04
Gone very windy in the last few hours here. As per the forecast, the skies are actually mostly clear, after rain during the early hours cleared away.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Rob K
24 January 2025 07:16:13
183.7 km/h gust at Mace Head which is 114 mph

As others pointed out though it seems to have gone offline after 5am. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

doctormog
24 January 2025 07:18:36

Not sure if that is the best measure, given the two different locations and geography?

Shannon is likely the nearest reporting station to Foynes (which I don't know is even reporting anymore) and its max gust so far is 74 knots, or 137 km/h. The 7am report may up this a little. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Best measure or not, it is apparently a new record which is the whole point. It is seemingly the strongest gust on record in Ireland. Your comment was about records, I posted one.


Chunky Pea
24 January 2025 07:24:33

Not sure if that is the best measure, given the two different locations and geography?

Shannon is likely the nearest reporting station to Foynes (which I don't know is even reporting anymore) and its max gust so far is 74 knots, or 137 km/h. The 7am report may up this a little. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Shannon down a little on 7am report at 67 knots. Winds here now more alternating between lulls and eyebrow raising surges. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

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