Storm Bert has been named and is forecast to bring heavy rain, strong winds and disruptive snow to parts of the UK through the weekend.

Yes - it looks as if it might be a lively couple of days. Higher temps though, so mostly "wet wet wet".

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2024-11-24 

Central, Tayside & Fife

    Angus

    Perth and Kinross

    Stirling

Grampian

    Aberdeenshire

Highlands & Eilean Siar

    Highland

Strathclyde

    Argyll and Bute

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2024-11-23&id=a5f15067-4a4a-43f3-b4e6-a66aae73b008 

Furthermore, anyone who follows Mark Vogan's videos on YouTube will no doubt have seen some possible clues to this possibility.

Mark Vogan doesn't claim to be a professional meteorologist and he works merely as a lorry driver as his main occupation. Yet for someone who is therefore just a weather enthusiast just like me or the likes of Gavin P. (who is also equally just as knowledgeable when it comes to the weather, albeit for different reasons), his knowledge on the weather is very impressive, especially when it comes to the MJO which features quite a lot in his videos.

Mark Vogan has explained on many occasions that certain phases of the MJO (notably phases 7, 8 and 1) tend to favour colder weather here in the UK whilst other phases of the MJO (most notably phases 4 and 5) tend to favour milder weather here in the winter and according to his theory, he can get a rough prediction of what the weather pattern is likely to be at some time in the medium term future before any of that is even picked up by any of the latest models. What makes this even more remarkable is that these predictions then tend more often than not to be all that far away from what actually ends up happening.

According to Mark Vogan's theory about the MJO, phase 3 of the MJO tends to favour stormy weather and it just so happens that the last two named storms (Storm Lilian and Storm Ashley) both coincided with phase 3 of the MJO albeit not necessarily exactly as there is usual a time lag involved with that.

We have just been through phases 7, 8 and 1 of the MJO which is thought to have led to the current cold snap and now, we are coming into phase 3 of the MJO once again so it's a real coincidence that Storm Bert has now been named just as that has happened but Mark Vogan has been hinting for quite a while in his videos that this could lead to a stormy period of weather.

As for the impacts of that, the one positive thing is that we might at least actually get a bit of interesting weather here in Edinburgh at long last. The possibility of snow on the forward edge of this system has been hinted at even for here in Edinburgh but with this type of pattern changing weather system, that very rarely actually happens here especially in NW Edinburgh where I am as the air tends to be already starting to get a bit milder even before the precipitation actually arrives.

Nevertheless, this could get very interesting in many places as regards to any transitional snowfall before the milder air arrives in earnest.

It's "drip drip drip" as I type and thoroughly unpleasant.

Oh for an old school long fetch easterly (same sort low - HP blossoming over Norway as the low slides majestically SE) and not this half frozen nonsense.

Saturday looks interesting if you like lots of wind.

I think the rain looks more notable than the wind. 10mm+ per hour for an extended period over Dartmoor and S Wales.

Edit the wind that is not the rain.

I'm still surprised the MetO hasn't issued any wind warnings - while the speeds aren't off the scale, 36 hours of 50+ gusts (in e.g. Folkestone) will cause all sorts of issues - plenty of trees down, I expect. It's not the strength as much as the very unusual longevity...

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2024112112/nmm-25-72-0.png?21-16 

There’s a wind warning for many northern parts in Saturday (including here). 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2024-11-23&id=4cea252d-950f-4ae7-948a-c4f7b91852d3 

UKV has similar values, a touch higher around Kent coasts than GFS shows and although it doesn't bring have the same line of stronger gusts it does show 70mph for some coastal areas towards the SW.

Arpege is broadly similar. 

Nothing exceptional but enough to cause some issues I'd imagine and can't help feeling if there wasn't so much going on elsewhere they'd have stuck a yellow warning in place for the coastal strip at least. 

Warnings aside it's certainly going to be an interesting weekend wherever you are - 70-80mph gusts for parts of NW Scotland, 60-70mph gusts possible for pretty much the whole of the coastal strip from NW Scotland round to the far SE, 100+mm of rain for some, heavy snow etc.

There's a Yellow warning in place now for the costal strip.

Interestingly, there's still a lot of uncertainty around the strength and therefore impacts of storm Bert which is reflected in the warning grid matrix. I wouldn't be surprised to see a number of Amber warnings issued tonight as the detail firms up ahead of tomorrow.

I have a feeling this might be the most impact full storm for a while.

Arpege tones things down a touch for NW Scotland, holding the core of very strong winds further out to sea and the LP fills somewhat before landfall. GFS does still have 70ish gusts for Scotland and near the Isle of Man but it's further south that sees the strongest gusts, with a 76mph just off the southern coast of Cornwall/Devon. There's also a 69 (no s[censored]ing) just NW of London. 

Can see where the uncertainty in the warnings comes from, must be a bit of a nightmare to forecast, with relatively minor changes potentially having large impacts on who sees the worst of the wind. 

The rain and snow areas look essentially 'nailed' I think, so just a case of chasing down the strongest winds. 

Edit - that's a fun bit of censoring - it says 'snaggering' but spelt correctly, I assume it feels I was making a racist slur!

Sniggering. 😉

That's something I won't be doing, incidentally, with the winds that are forecast - I've already barricaded my neighbour's dodgy fence with my wheelie bins. I still expect quite a few trees down here in the far SE, especially close to the southern coast. The reasons are a) plenty still have leaves on them, b) we haven't had a strong blow for quite some time and c) the 36 hour duration is remarkable - death by a thousand gusts, so to speak.

At least the MetO has issued wind warnings now (supplementing the ones in Scotland), so it won't be completely unexpected for the population at large!

I agree Ian,

It's unusual to have winds at this strength for such a long period of time - it's similar right along the South Coast. I think it'll cause some problems sadly. 

Good call - Amber warning issued at 20:30 for snow tomorrow (Saturday) from 07:00 to 12:00 covering the hills of Scotland south of the Central Belt, The Cheviots, and the Pennines southwards to near Leeds.

My elderly parents down in Hawick in the Scottish Borders aren't going to be chuffed about that as they are in that amber warning area and are bound to be impacted by that in some way.

I also have a sister who lives down there and luckily for me, she is able to give them a helping hand until I travel down there myself at Christmas as I normally do.

Here in Edinburgh, we are going to just be under two separate yellow warnings over the course of the weekend consisting of one for wind and another one for both rain and snow. The latter of those is probably unusual in a way because I've seen countless warnings in the past for rain and countless warnings for snow, but I don't recall seeing any warnings before for both rain and snow as one single warning at the same time.

I'm just north of the yellow warning zone, but still expecting some damage from the sustained gusts over the long period, At least most of the trees have lost their leaves.  I still expect the usual fence damage etc