GFS Op - after a hiccup today, HP resumes from the SW and is centred close to Britain though to Sat 16th when it begins to pull away to the NW. By Sunday deep cold LP over Sweden plus LP near Biscay fire up the N-lies, becoming strong and directed at Britain Wed 20th. Not lasting, as Hp from Spain is close enough to create a weak ridge of HP over Britain, with W/Nw-lies here while the main N-ly plunge is diverted to E Europe by Tue 26th.

ECM - similar to GFS though the N-lies and associated pptn are augmented Tue 19th/ Wed 20th by the LP being positioned closer, viz. 985mb N Sea

GEM - somewhere between  GFS and ECM, producing a twin centre LP, Sweden and N Sea Tue 19th

GEFS - after a bit of a dip, temps recover to mild until Sun 17th when sharply colder in all ens members. Mean of ens runs then stays below norm through to Tue 26th but with much variation, op and control going in different directions e.g. op 7C below on Thu 21st and as much above by Mon 25th while control is the mirror image! Spits of rain now and then until Mon 18th after which often heavy and frequent in the various ens members, esp in SE. Snow row figures in double digits for E Scotland from 17th, reaching 20 at Inverness on 20th.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202411090000 

Hmmm, could be interesting.

More interesting is a potential for sliding lows which inevitably bring colder and colder conditions ! Cold November rain always welcome though

Ensembles starting to look decent aswell.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

This must be the most interesting model output there has been in any November since 2010, as far as I can recall. I can't recall exactly what dates in November 2010 the 'eye-candy' charts began to appear but I have a vague memory that it was around mid-month. I certainly didn't forsee a week or two ago that the model runs would now be looking as interesting as many runs now are.

I remember Met office long range text updates changing and hinting a couple of weeks out at least. The model eye candy popped up soon after, then the forecasts all of a sudden turned very bullish about severe cold. The confidence and certainty was something I’d never seen before (or since) in winter. What made it more special was the timing, first week of December, although a month later could have resulted in even more severity with weaker sun, drier & cooler ground. 

I’ve heard a few rumours, probably unfounded that Met office expect snow at the end of this month. But I typically refuse to believe it until the nowcasting begins these days. 

GFS Op - HP sitting over or just W of Britain to Fri 16th while LP winds up over N Norway. This Lp then projects N-lies over Britain including a deep secondary Tue 19th 985mb S Ireland (it was much deeper and colder on last night's 12z, indeed a spectacular winter storm) which for the rest of the week takes a tour of France, Denmark and back to Norway keeping Britain in the grip of NE/N-lies to Sun 24th. Then a new and potentially damaging winter storm from Greenland parks itself 955mb Hebrides Tue 26th with gales for all (although the gales are SW-lies, they are "returning polar maritime" so cold and unsettled).

ECM - similar to GFS though the secondary on Tue 19th is less deep and further east (980mb N Sea) and returns to Norway more quickly, it still introduces the cold N/NE-ly flow.

GEM - more like ECM than GFS, and indeed as the LP returns to Norway the coldest of the weather relaxes its grip, esp in the SW, as some Atlantic influence moves in by Wed 20th

GEFS - temps drop sharply to very cold at the end of the week (5or 6 C below norm by Sun 18th) with good ens agreement. The mean recovers slowly to norm by Wed 27th, op run amongst the coldest but control much milder at times esp in the S, and pptn often heavy esp in N & W sets in also from 17th. In the week following 17th snow row figures of as high as 8 are forecast even for the south coast and as high as 27 for Inverness.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=6&time=219&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

I could guess which part of the country *wouldn't* be included in that - and I was right! Still, cold rain would make a change from two weeks of gloom...

Incidentally this pattern of diving lows reminds me of the late Nov/early Dec cold spell of 2009, which saw plenty of snow here. The difference is that was "seeded" by a Scandinavian High, and that meant the lower layers of the atmosphere were cooled in advance of the diving lows - we wouldn't have that this time, plus two weeks earlier and 15 years of warming means it's that much harder in the first place!

(FWIW between 61-90 and 91-20, my local station, Faversham, has warmed by 1.4C!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-averages/u10eu40xb  )

I think its still odds against for snow here as well, but it's nice just to have a chance so early in the season.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=26&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 

We love cold rain in this part of the country in November! Let’s wait for the roaring deep easterly in late December 🙂

😏

Always a pleasant drive through the Peak District 🤣

It’ll make a nice change though for sure. I’m in Edinburgh for a few days next week - I’ll have to remember to take a light coat 😉

1) Blink and you miss it cold spell. Mostly just HP ridging in from the west, frosty nights but no snow.

2) Northerly toppler type thing. Snow showers in N scotland and over the hills in N England but that's about it

3) Extended cold spell

We know by now 3) is the least likely, but I will say the models have been thinking about this for a while. It appeared at 384 can you believe!