WX temps - the block of cold / freezing weather out to the east is still there and approaching Poland in week 2, throwing forward streamers over the Alps; but maybe not so intrusive as yesterday with most of W Europe including Britain slightly above norm in week 1and only cooling a little in week 2. Most of Europe, bar Spain and the W Mediterranean, dry in week 1, rain band developing down the N Sea and into France in week 2, also some in Italy and E Europe.
GFS Op - Mainly HP for the coming week, though a weak trough moves across the north tomorrow, Sunday, before the HP establishes W of Ireland. From Sun 17th LP takes over with centres N & S of Britain forming a trough over the country and by Wed moving W to become an LP 1000mb Holland. This continues to move away and by Mon 25th Britain is in a run of NW-lies between HP in Biscay and LP in Finland.
ECM - the breakdown of HP begins a day earlier, on Sat 16th, and takes the form of a dominant LP 975 mb Norway projecting N-lies across Britain , and then including a secondary depression 985mb Clyde Tue 19th in the general cold flow (looks quite snowy for the Highlands)
GEM - More like ECM in timing and pressure distribution though the N-ly plunge is diverted to the N Sea and held E of Britain
GEFS - temps soon dropping to norm and mean then becoming a little colder from Sun 17th. Poor agreement between ens members; op and control suggesting a milder spell than mean about Fri 15th, then colder about Tue 19th, this variation more marked in the north. Bits and pieces of rain here and there, becoming more widespread in more (but not all) runs from Tue 19th. Inverness snow row values in double figures from this date.
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce
Chichester 12m asl