Tentative signs of pattern change for the second half of Nov.

Won’t happen at all until this HP sod off and now well outstayed it welcome. It really polluted skies more yellow dirty clouds.   Never like any HP at all and no use to this country forever cloudy climate anyway.

GFS Op - HP continuing to dominate British weather, with the centre moving E-wards to Europe by Sun 10th but still just strong enough to keep Atlantic fronts at bay (possibly excepting the far NW; S-ly winds for most). Then it returns and is centred over Britain through to Sun 17th, at that stage beginning to weaken and move SE-wards. [Note - TWO chart viewer is stuck on Saturday's download]

ECM - As GFS, though an Atlantic LP does get rather close to the Hebrides Sun 10th

GEM - like GFS

GEFS - temps steadily declining from the current very mild to near norm Tue 19th, good ens agreement until Sun 10th but wide divergence for the north after that. Rain in small amounts showing up in a few runs after Sun 10th

Day 6th/7/8/9/10/11/12 and corresponding date records (C)

19.8/20,.2/ 19.1/18.6/18.9/ 19.5/19.1

It's time the date record for the 8th got broken; it's stood since 1881 (Alston, Cumbria)

https://www.torro.org.uk/extremes/date-records/max-temp 

No thanks!!

We get far too many date records broken these days which are on the warm side and so if any date records are to be broken, I would rather those be cold date records rather than warm ones.

I agree, and if we end up with an unusually mild winter, I tend to think there’s a price to pay come spring, when I'm hoping for some real warmth and sunshine. Here, it's been absolutely dreadful—completely gray skies with no sunlight for over a week. It’s miserable, and I can't wait for the high-pressure system to shift. From what I’m seeing, it might either head toward our northwest or Scandinavia.

Honestly, I'd much prefer a return to classic UK weather, like this:

Clear, blue skies at sunrise

Clouds building from around 8:30 a.m.

Rain or showers by 11 a.m.

Showers and sunny spells in the afternoon, ending with a starry night

and so on

Wasn't last winter loaded with blanks?

Down here last winter was a whole week in January. Hopefully next winter will be longer!

Talking of which, the 12z GFS op is fun today. Our wobbling high moves away in FI and a lobe of the polar vortex sets up shop over the UK. Lots of wind, rain, sleet and - for the mountains - snow.

The reason I mention this is it's a great time to remind people that the GFS charts show snow if as little as one snowflake amongst the rain is modelled - or at least the ones on Meteociel do. (UKV and similar models are the ones to look for in terms of snow, as they have a "pure snow" versus "sleet" parameter.)

GFS Op - HP continues to be the principal influence for British weather for the next 10 days or so, contesting control over the extreme west with Atlantic LP around Thu 7th/Fri 8th with consequent strong S-lies; but reviving later to be centred over Britain Tue 11th 1040mb. It finally declines and moves SE-wards Sat 16th and eventually LP traverses Scotland Tue 19th with brief N-lies behind (the N-lies are strongest for Scandinavia - last night's direct and dramatic plunge over Britain has been written out). 

ECM - very much like GFS

GEM - like GFS but less Atlantic influence 7th/8th

GEFS - maintaining temps 4 or 5C above norm with good ens agreement to Thu 13th. After that, the mean declines to norm but little agreement between runs. Chance of rain noticeable from Sat 16th but by no means certain in the S, rather more likely and heavier in the NW where there is an extra spike on Sat 9th

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs-hourly.aspx 

It'll be interesting to see how long HP manages to dictate our weather - the charts are suggesting 'quite a while', which would be unusual in the context of recent autumns (NW looks to have more of an atlantic influence from time to time as you'd expect). Whether this current spell ends up a blip in an otherwise atlantic dominated autumn and winter remains to be seen - there's not been a lot of quiet HP interludes over recent autumns or winters from memory, but the few HP spells that have cropped up have generally been followed by weeks of wet and windy stuff, which would seem to be the form horse although not signalled in the models currently. 

No sun here, or over much of the country. I think the gloom is set in for the rest of the week for many of us.

Still, GFS has a nice dump of snow in two weeks' time. Nailed on!

Bit of hazy sunshine struggling to make an appearance here. GFS looks keen to push that high west of Ireland. Hopefully we will know bit more by the next weekend

I've loved this spell.

There's something atmospheric about late-autumn gloom.

Yep the first interesting Op of the season.  

Yes, if the trend continues we might even get an air frost in the south before autumn is over….

Whoopee!

At this same set-up under the HP we should had been looking at severe early frosts and sunny days by now.  This HP need to sod off asap.

GFS Op - HP continues to dominate, moving a little E-wards at the weekend allowing LP to approach the NW but HP returning to be centred over Britain for all of the following week i.e. until Fri 15th. It then moves to France and W/NW-lies set in, looking unsettled in the N but still HP-dominated in the S. Any N-lies no longer show up, despite press speculation.

ECM - similar to GFS but the LP near the NW is delayed to Sun 10th rather than 8th/9th.

GEM - like GFS though a suggestion at end of run Thu 14th that the HP may move NW-wards, not to the S

GEFS - Mean temp supported by ensembles at first steadily declining to norm by Thu 21st; ens agreement begins to break up  around Thu 14th more so in north than south. Chances of rain after Sun 17th.

Problem is, it never loads. Always full of bad sectors, and CRC errors, (cyclical regurgitated crap)

Best to look out the window this winter.