It's refusing to budge. It occasionally shows signs of sinking southeast or drifting westward, but each time it just rebuilds and strengthens again.

Really boring

Finally? What have we had, like one dry day so far lol 🤣 

The longer its stays bone dry and mild the better as far as I’m concerned. Keep this until March please, and then bring back that proper warmth 

Matty,

While I agree with you, I'm really hoping for some heavy snow in the French Alps by mid-December. Purely selfish reasons, of course, but so far, it's been unseasonably mild—seems more like daffodil-picking weather than skiing!

Agreed I completely hate HP nowadays they just deliver cloud, rain and dull weather all year around.  Last summer we lost the sun and warmth when HP move in wit created fronts that stuck for days.  HP are supposed to keep skies clear, properly settled and sunny with clear nights with interesting temperature ranges.  HP destroy our summer days and winters nowadays, they just sit there to keep cold and snow out of here and in summer keep the sun and heat out as well by cloud cover.

Forget it, the signs for anything over 0.5cm this side of January look utterly awful. 

Unless you plan on visiting the States or Canada of course. 

It showed 10C  max here for Saturday now that's Monday and Tuesday.

Signs are there for a significant cold plunge around mid-month with air originating in Siberia, if that happens widespread snow is likely, at least in northern half. Apparently snow is now impossible in southern England due to UHI presumably..

     🙂 🙂 🙂  I agree Matty. 

GFS Op - HP is the major influence over Britain for the next two weeks - retreating slightly to the east Wed 6th with Atlantic troughs close to Ireland but moves back by Mon 11th before slowly collapsing Sun 17th. Deep and cold LPs coming and going S of Greenland and near the Urals.

ECM - like GFS; if anything HP stays closer Wed 6th which results in S-ly gales for W Britain

GEM - like ECM though the S-ly gales are a day or so later

GEFS - temps above norm through to Sun 17th, up to 6C at first, decreasing slowly, quite good ens agreement degrading to some extent after Fri 8th, more so in Scotland. A little rain in a few runs after Fri 8th generally, rather more frequent and heavier at this time in the far N & W

Someone on X (I think) mentioned similarities with October - November 1988. Reanalysis charts from here

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx?year=1988&month=Oct&dom=25&var=HPA®ion=NA&level=500&hour=00 

Ugh. Following the lovely snowy early to mid 80s, winter 87/88 and 88/89 shattered my world view - and showed that my old gran (in her 60s!) was actually right when she said that some years it didn't even snow.

That said, if there's one thing we've learned over the past 25 years or so it's that pattern matching doesn't really work reliably. There's always something that pops up to skew things, most easily noticed in the event of pattern matching throwing up a cold outcome in winter.

The fact the AI models show a slightly better accuracy compared to deterministic/traditional ensemble forecasting is interesting, mind you, and perhaps there's potential if we improve our understanding more.

The only thing that's certain, it seems, is that it's going to be a very dull and mild week ahead for most of us. It's a pity in a way that the sun can't make more of an appearance, as with 850s widely into double figures - on a par with August's average - it would perhaps get into the high teens or even 20C, which would be noteworthy.

(And despite it all, I've no complaints really. It's nice to not be wondering whether the neighbour's fence is going to blow down again, or whether that bit of the main road will flood again due to blocked drains!)

And that's gone too.

FI cold spells? They're mostly best ignored unless much repeated. 'Benign' probably sums up the weather for the forseeable. And, If I had to bet, another very mild winter beckons.

15 dayer suggests little change in the NH pattern as you say:

Whatever hope the UK has of seeing some lower level coolness at night under these conditions, there is next to zero chance for me. Airmass is just too humid and warm. Already looking like it could be the warmest and driest November on record for moi. 

15 years ago I would have got bored and frustrated with this type of set up, but as I got older and wiser I've become more relieved. I still wouldn't say no to a decent "Beast From The East" type set up as we go into Winter but those are rare as rocking horse's poop, at least as far as my neck of the woods is concerned. 

Well quite :)

My phone is showing 20C for next Friday. Date record for the 8th is 19.1C all the way back in 1881!

Hopefully a Spring loaded one 😅

On a serious note, Exeter’s 3 month Cont. Planner outlook released a few days ago suggests a colder Nov-December period in comparison to the 3 months including Jan overall. 

Westerly, Atlantic setups are expected to dominate from late for the rest of winter in summary. 

Wind speeds expected to be around normal for the time of year. 

coldies may take comfort in that last years front loaded turned into mid loaded. 

Details here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_ndj_v2.pdf

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069 

This would chime with Exeters front loaded winter/ backloaded autumn/ mid loaded pre Christmas loadings. 

GFS Op - HP persists over or just to the east of Britain until Thu 14th but with Atlantic LP close enough to produce S-ly gales at times in the west esp Fri 8th. From Fri 15th HP is positioned either side of Britain but at a distance with a shallow LP running S from Iceland reaching Cornwall 1005mb Sat 16th and becoming established as an extended trough Portugal - N Sea - Norway.

ECM - like GFS but with an extra dose of S-ly gales for the NW Sun 10th

GEM - like GFS but S-lies less strong as LP is further off on the Atlantic

GEFS - [not loading on TWO today so shorter summary from Wetterzentrale] - temps very mild at first slowly declining to norm around Fri 15th with good ens agreement until about Fri 8th; by end of run a wide variation. Rain in various ens members for most of Britain from Fri 8th but not consistent and some runs remain dry, however more likely than shown yesterday and quite heavy and persistent in the far NW