That’s encouraging, although I’ve no idea what their success rate is like on these. Mixed I’d imagine at the range of time involved 

Would love to see that graph flipped upside down in January!

The London 00z GEFS is probably the most prolonged dry outlook that I've seen in all my years of model-watching.

Yes there are enough small rain spikes appearing to suggest there will be a lot of cloud in the mix. That also means overnight lows could  remain quite high. When I went running this morning it felt "warm". It looks like they will drop somewhat, but getting an inversion and low level cold is often elusive even when things look promising. 

Which is great news! 

If only it was July. Could have been a momentous heatwave. 

No doubt that’ll be when we pay for this dry spell 

It’s definitely a worrying trend. I’ve booked Val d’Isère leading up to Christmas, and the snow line is sitting at over 3,000 meters at present In couple of nights time 0c at 4,000 meters!. I monitor snow conditions across the Alps every year, and I can’t recall it ever being this poor. There’s not even frost at night, with muddy trails mid-mountain preventing artificial snowmaking for forseable future. The high-pressure ridge seems stuck over Europe, and there's no sign of relief.

For once, it feels like we can predict the next two weeks with little hope for change. Hopefully, I’m wrong, and a weather shift is on the way.

I'm guessing you weren't online in the late 90s, early 2000s, when a whopping great high ended up over the Alps seemingly every winter. The Bartlett high, it was nicknamed (by those on weather forums/newsgroups), and there was a chap on here in the early days who kept going on about the pressure in Berne. Fun times!

It makes a change to see such a settled outlook, and I'm thoroughly enjoying it - makes a change from the usual zonality this time of year. I'm trying not to remind myself though of the old maxim, "be it dry or be it wet, nature always pays her debt". Instead, I'm hoping that the trend we've seen in recent years for patterns to repeat every 6 to 8 weeks kicks in - a long settled spell in winter is well overdue.

Incidentally this high isn't a cold one - yet. The moist Atlantic air is definitely making itself felt, and the dewpoint (14C here) is impressively high for this time of year. The MetO raw does, however, show a characteristic gradual drop in temperatures over the next week, a high of 17 today versus 11 in a week's time, reflecting the fact that the sun is now too weak to warm things up, and instead under stagnant conditions things just get colder and colder. There's a hell of a long way to go though compared to the old days: in the 80s and 90s it wasn't at all unusual to get an air frost for bonfire night, something which seldom happens these days.

It'll be interesting to see how long this can persist and whether, with time, we can pull some drier air in from the continent - that would be the catalyst for clear skies and frosts, but at the moment it looks unlikely.

I remember the 90s too, though I wasn’t part of the forum then. I've been skiing since childhood and always made it a point to head to snow-sure resorts in the Alps—I just love seeing the snow on the ground. I even remember the old BBC ski forecasts in the 90s, and one year, the weatherman finally announced that the stubborn high-pressure system would shift, letting the weather fronts move in just in time for December ski openings.

What really concerns me now, though, is the freezing level sitting well above 3,000 meters. IF the models show a promising cold spell and snowfall in two weeks, we know how forecasts tend to shift five days before the event. But with this setup, I’m almost certain they’ll be spot-on, and I have a gut feeling this pattern might linger into end of Novand  early December.

I pulled on a pair of skies for the first time since 2016 earlier this month. That said, we're not wedded to the idea of going back to the Alps this winter and I'm also concerned about the snow prospects. We usually (or used to) go to Courchevel 1650.

Zero.

Years of back loaded, front loaded mid loaded garbage. Its a 3 month forecast which updates every few weeks , so makes the 3 month span useless.

As they have gone mild, I now expect some very cold spells.

 We do ski drive with family every year sometimes twice year depending on kids exams etc. Val at 1850 and Cervinia at 2050. (both village level) are favourite. never had a problem but at present its mud time below 3,000m. Both resorts have glaciers but I really do not fency skiing unless there is plentiful snow at village level.

Persistent high-pressure systems over Europe at present notoriously stubborn, and once established, they often take time to shift. However, these patterns can break down as new weather systems move in from the Atlantic or Arctic, hopefully later November when jet stream patterns start to shift, hopefully increasing the chance of Atlantic low-pressure systems nudging the high-pressure ridge out of place. This could allow colder air to push southward and bring the snowfall to the Alps.

waiting game for now but very annoying how there is such good cross model agreement at present and I am bloody sure its nearly 90% accurate at such long range. had it been the other way round I would say chance 5% wintry weather would come true nearer the time.

Careful, you don’t to upset the Metpolice! On a serious note, they went for front loaded last winter IIRC, came close but missed the target as the cold spell came a few weeks later than expected. Might be better sticking with Moomin’s outlook this year. 

As for the Alps, early April 2022 and 2023 in the Grand Massif produced excellent conditions above 1800 for the week I was there on both occasions. Usually a risky game before March these days. 

We’re heading into a La Niña and that favours colder winters in Western Europe, but it’s obviously only one factor.

As it is we seem to be destined to be content for now with wondering whether autumn will deliver an air frost in lowland England.

850s in NE England around 14 with 564 thicknesses. Shame insolation won't have the earlier autumn impact- could be some 2014 31/10 type excitement.

GFS Op - HP consistently close and controlling British weather for the next two weeks. If anything, weaker and centred on the near continent Tue 5th allowing the Atlantic with S-lies to approach W Britain but resuming and strengthening S Ireland from Sat 9th with NW-lies for the far NE.

ECM - drifts away from GFS later on; HP still present on Sat 9th but centred on the Baltic and even more intense at 1050mb, keeping the S-lies going

GEM - more like ECM but HP near Baltic is weaker and Atlantic troughs are threatening the W

GEFS - In the S, temps 4 or 5 C above norm to Sat 9th, then drifting lower with less ens agreement and small amounts of rain in a few ens members. In the N, mean temp follows the same trend but with less agreement from ensembles throughout esp in NE and small chance of rain in trivial amounts from Tue 5th (heavier in NW). 

Went running this morning across some fields, and, well my shoes are in soapy water in the sink.  Was like a bog.

We havent had that much rain recently, but everything is wet and claggy.  It feels like January in terms of dampness.

Hopefully a little bit of a breeze and clear skies can help soon.

Yes, the ground is still soft here as well - albeit there's been some drizzly stuff each day apart from today.

To get things to dry out, wind or not, you'll want lower dewpoints - the dewpoint here, right now, is 12C, and that doesn't help!

The 12z GFS has a brief period of lower dewpoints on Monday, but only for a few hours as another surge of tropical maritime air moves across.

No. But

GFS Op - HP close to or over Britain to  Thu 14th ridging to the SE for most of the time, some close approaches to W Britain from Atlantic troughs around Tue 5th. Then the HP suddenly splits into two parts, one over W Russia, one over the Azores and by Sat 16th a large but shallow area of LP covers Britain.

ECM - similar to GFS but by Sun 10th HP has drifted S-wards to Biscay and Britain is under SW-lies.

GEM - like ECM

GEFS - mean temp staying well above norm (say 6C at max) to Sat 16th , good ens agreement to Sat 9th but quite wide divergence in the N later on; only a little rain and that scattered over only a few runs - after Tue 12th in the SE, after Thu 7th in the N & W. [Op run temp for Plymouth shows an improbable 14C above norm on the 14th!]

Finally, the first signs of a shift are appearing on the horizon, hinting at a possible change in the pattern and a potential displacement of the high-pressure system for the latter half of November. Although it’s still quite far down the line, it’s clear that the current trend can’t persist for ever.