Easterly muck 🤣

🤔 Richard?

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GFS Op - Storm Ashley well modelled running up the west coast of Scotland, central pressure 960mb, out of the way by Mon 21st and HP developing over Germany 1030mb affecting all of Britain exc far NW by Wed 23rd. A weak trough crosses Britain Fri 25th, but deepens off the coast of Norway with N-lies Tue 29th. HP then develops over Britain, typically 1030mb to Mon 4th, though the east coast suffers from LPs diving S-wards through the N Sea Thu 31st (quite close) and Sun 3rd (further off).

ECM - like GFS 

GEM - like GFS

GEFS - for the S, temps descending in stages to cool Sat 26th, mean then regaining norm (but without much confidence) through to Mon 4th; rain in the next couple of days then mainly dry. In the N, same temp pattern but even less ens agreement from the 26th; less rain at first but some Fri 25th - Tue 29th especially in the NW

GFS Op - storm Ashley moving rapidly to Norway and filling  leaving W-lies until HP develops Germany Wed 23rd 1030mb with spell of S/SW-lies for Britain, breezy in the N. Trough appears 990mb SW Ireland Fri 25th, crossing Britain as it pulls away N-wards, new HP cell then affecting  S England reaching maximum 1035mb  Thu 31st. That declines S-wards and by Mon 4th with LP near Iceland strong W-lies for all, some rather cold air being dragged in for N Scotland.

ECM - like GFS until later on when 'the new HP cell'  Wed 30th is further east with trough approaching from the west.

GEM - like GFS but trough 25th centred N Ireland

GEFS - temps up and down either side of but not far from norm to Mon 28th, then a considerable scramble of ens members, mean just below norm, op run often above but control below. Dry for a day or two after Ashley passes, then small amounts of rain now and then in the S, rather more in the NW, most likely Fri 25th for both. 

Stay on topic, be nice and enjoy! Welcome! If you have any questions please PM me directly or post in the Forum Arms so this thread doesn't become cluttered.

GFS Op - with storm Ashley out of the way, pressure rises over N France 1030mb Wed 23rd affecting Britain briefly before a series of shallow troughs move across from the W to stall and deepen Sweden 995mb Tue 29th with N-lies for Britain, soon dispersed by pressure rise from the SW which develops into a ridge from Norway 1045mb Mon 4th across to Scotland, and E-lies for the south. 

ECM - similar to GFS but HP moves up from the SW a day or two sooner, arriving Tue 29th and keeping the N-lies away

GEM - the last of the Atlantic troughs is better defined at 995mb Bristol Channel and sinks S-wards rather than moving to Sweden. This allows HP with a ridge from Sweden to be in place by Tue 29th, while the LP generating N-lies is far off, in Finland

GEFS - In the S, temps up then down then back to norm Sun 27th, after which mean stays near norm but no agreement from ens members. Brief pulses of rain 22nd, 25th, 28th then mostly dry. Scotland similar temps with the addition of another cooler spell Tue 29th, rain most likely 25th and 28th but not much in the east.

Halloween looking safely on the calm side this year for many tricky tricksters, but will Nov 5th turn out to be another washout?

Still 10 days away, so perhaps a bit premature for a ruling like that, just yet? 😁

But yes, quite a bit of cross-model agreement that the rest of this week is looking fairly settled and quite mild as well. I wonder if this could be one of those cases where the second half of October is warmer than the first half?

GFS Op - HP cell passing quite quickly E-wards over S Britain tomorrow Wed 23rd before broad trough moves in from Atlantic filling by the weekend. After a period of W-lies, HP arises from the southwest to cover Britain Mon 28th just about holding in the W as LP over Scandinavia Fri 1st brings in N-lies. Then that HP cell crosses Britain, this time finishing up in Scandinavia with ridge to N Britain Wed 6th and E-lies for the south.

ECM - 0z slow to load this morning so based on yesterday's 12z after Friday: HP arises from the SW as above but drops back to lie across S Britain with a broad band of W-lies through to Thu 31st

GEM - the 'broad trough' is deeper and more localised to the Irish Sea before filling; the HP on the 28th extends further east and south keeping any N-lies in Scandinavia.

GEFS - In the S, short-lived dip in temp with a little rain around Sat 26th, otherwise mostly dry with mean temps above norm through into Nov (WX takes its lead from the op run which is one of the cooler versions as ens agreement breaks down later on). In the N more rain though not lots around the 26th and also later into Nov; temps undergo wild swings - cold 26th, 2nd, mild or very mild 30th, 4th, with much less agreement between ens members.

Try to avoid the tumbleweed, and don't worry if your voice is echoey in here.

It depends where you look. There are suggestions of a weakened stratospheric polar vortex and more favourable ENSO conditions. Also it depends what the baseline is. For example, the TWO CET  tracker is mostly red, but if only looking at the 1991-2020 series the picture is somewhat different. However, I suspect most people think of a "cold winter" in terms of the 1960s or 1980s rather than relative to the norm in the last decade.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx 

I’d also suggest that it is the middle of October and the reliable model output goes out to a time point that is still a month or so before winter even commences. 

The next week to ten days of weather at a glance looks quite benign, a bit milder and less unsettled than average for this time of the year. Winter is well beyond the scope of discussion based on the vast majority of model output.

I'd take a repeat of the 2009/10 or 2010/11 winter in a flash! 2012/13 was also pretty good here (albeit each of those is just outside of the 'in the last decade' criteria!)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx 

Looking at the Southern Hemisphere winter just gone it was mainly mild but did have random short sharp cold snaps. 

So a mild winter overall almost certain but with a decent 1 or 2 week cold spell perhaps.

Genuine question: is there a correlation between the previous southern hemisphere winters and the subsequent northern hemisphere winter?

Any forecasts for winter are pure speculation and guesswork.  We can’t be sure what the weather will be like next month, let alone next season and we know how quickly things can change. 

For broad-brush forecasts, I find the ECM 10hPa zonal charts worth a look. As it happens they show a stronger than normal vortex through the rest of the autumn and into early December, with just the odd member "going off on one" and bringing an SSW.

If nothing else, it shows that any cold shots are likely to either be limited, or home-grown (e.g. a stagnant high over the UK, but not "deep cold".)

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202410220000 

GFS Op -  HP cell moving steadily E-wards  from Britain to Poland allowing trough to develop 1005mb S Ireland Sat 26th. New HP from the SW becoming established 1030mb N Sea Tue 29th, then a repeat as shallow trough crosses Britain before the next HP Mon 4th 1035mb England. This HP dissipates in the face of a N-ly plunge on Fri 8th.

GEFS - in England, a little rain and cooler for a few days from Thu 25th, then mostly dry and the mean temp a few degrees above norm (ens agreement breaks up progressively after Wed 30th), In Scotland, starting similarly but a temp rebound to well above norm Wed 30th before a decline to norm with ens agreement well absent after that date;  also dry into Nov except rain quite likely later on in the Highlands and west,

GEM - the rise in pressure after 26th (see GFS) is slower due to LP 1005mb crossing Scotland Mon 28th but the HP then persisting as a NW-SE ridge and no sign of a trough arriving by the weekend of Sat 2nd

ECM - (some 12z charts from yesterday as I have to go out - this problem will disappear this weekend a the clocks go back) Similar to GFS but the HP on the 29th is more of an E-W ridge over England than a broad cell.

The cold we did have in Australia was restricted to July with winter pretty much ending by first week of August, and so like first week February up your way. The main feature of the winter down here was the SSW event, which is very usual in the southern hemisphere. This event did cause cold outbreaks at higher latitudes due to the cold pushing much further away from Antarctica, but Australia found itself in a warm loop where as I think South Africa and NZ did get colder.

IMO they often follow each other but i dont have the stats to hand.