12z GFS has amended south, with the precip just fringing the Kent coast. 

Something approaching consensus that Kirk will run through Northern France and although still time for a Northward shift, I suspect based on current output it's a near miss. Probably a good thing from a flooding POV as you flagged above, lots of areas do not need a spell of intense rain!

Yes, and the 18z keeps a similar track, just pushing rain into the far SE. Hopefully this particular thread will become redundant in the next 24-48 hours.  But there’s a lot of rain in the forecast charts at the moment, so it may be that we’ve just dodged one bullet.

The public MetO forecast has a day of light rain along the coast and peak gusts late Wednesday - early Thursday 30-35mph all along from Plymouth to Dover

It still seems odd to see an NHC track extending all the way east of the meridian - the only other times I've seen that have been when an ex-hurricane passes north of Scotland.

Looking at the GEFS it does seem that we're going to dodge this one, which is good for us if not for France! In the space of two days we've gone from the majority of members bringing strong (>100kmh gusts) to just two outliers.

I find this link useful for tracking this sort of event:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?table=1 

Click on a spot on the map (or use the Carte Europe option if you're "up north") and you get a nice table view. "Vent Rafales 10m" is the option you'll want - wind gusts.

We really dodged a bullet on this one - hopefully!

Just look at Kirk on the 12z ICON run, for example:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon-eu.php?ech=75&mode=11&map=500 

Not only does it bring widespread 80mph+ gusts across central and eventually NE France, it's still mostly tropical as it hits land. Note the way the strong winds wrap around the core as it's over Biscay, and how it's only when it's halfway across France that the typical warm sector appears (with the strongest winds SE of the core).

It's visible on the 850 charts too, a little blob of warm temperatures at the core, only developing the "shark's fin" type warm sector again halfway across France.

(I know Q has posted phase diagrams showing a similar thing, but the wind gust / 850 charts will be more familiar to us all!)

1) Possibly, if it's deeper than expected (deeper lows curve more to the north). It's unlikely at this stage though IMO.

2) Personally speaking wind is my least favourite "hazard" weather by far, as it causes sleepless nights due to the noise - a mostly flat roof seems to amplify the noise of various creaks and bangs - and worry about things blowing over / off, such as trees, roof tiles, fences etc.

Give me fog, rain, hail, sleet, snow any day, but wind? Nope.

No.🤣 

Latest NHC has adjusted the track northwards so now coming ashore at the mouth of the Loire. Edge of shaded area = limit of possible track, damaging  effects over a wider area, now touching the S Coast from Wight to Dover.

If you're bored, would you like to arrange a house swap for a week?

😉

More looking forward to sunny northerly end of the week. This Autumn seem to be front loaded cold type as we getting 2 to 3 days Northerly instead of few hours to 24hrs type.  Well below average as well so far this month.

Relax, NHC has heard your plea and this morning allows Kirk to devastate central France, heading for Luxembourg

I see there is some activity in the SW approaches currently. 

Perhaps not. The BBC is more bullish about thundery showers later. The Met Office not so much but still possible still there for tomorrow.

The big storm some of us were worrying about on this thread has all but vanished for the South later in the week. Hope it stays that way.

We've already had some hefty fast moving showers today.

Looking at the Fax charts this morning, it doesn't look like Kirk is going to devastate anywhere. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=fax&model=fax 

It will still pack a punch when it reaches France but nothing like what was on the cards a couple of days ago.

There is a trough shown on the fax chart which ties in with the radar plot for the moment and the UKV rainfall plot. The Met Office still have a yellow warning posted for thunderstorms later this evening.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2024-10-07&id=23918c0a-860e-4e06-805b-0d836294004e