Indeed, GFS still sticking to its guns with showing Kent getting the brunt of it (come to mention it, Retron has been quiet of late). The sad thing is that this model usually turn out to be the correct one when it comes to this kind of set up from 5 to 6 days away as I think it has a better understanding of the Atlantic. Still some room for downgrades, though.

I've been quiet because it's so uncertain still (it's a million miles out in modelling terms), and there haven't been many worryingly strong runs down here - most keep gusts below 50 which, though pretty windy, isn't enough to cause widespread problems.

This morning's GFS, for example, has gusts in the mid 40s here and even down your way, a max of 48. ECM wrings out a couple of low 40s, while MetO tops out in the mid 30s.

For the sort of events where I'd be getting concerned, I'd be looking at 60s showing up on GFS, regularly, and mid 40s or higher showing up on MetO.

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/24100400/1.html 

When Kirk is making landfall with the UK

Assymetry: Borderline

Lower thermal wind: Warm

Upper thermal wind: Warm

This is still a borderline TC under this definition when it makes landfall. This is genuinelly unusual. Now I wouldn't use this method in isolation to describe a LP but we are looking at a system that may not be completely ex by the time it gets to us. 

If this thing is strong (e.g. stays a cat4 or cat 5 quite far north) and moves quickly then the shear won't have enough time to break it down; particularly if this thing manages to get north of the jet.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/topic/eye-on-the-storm/ 

And right on cue, the 12z GFS serves up a wonderful "43 to 64" here, as the low runs further north than on earlier runs. It's just an anomaly for now - the MetO continues to run the low to the south of us, over northern France - but definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Tonight's nasty is this one, which delivers gusts widely in the 80s (MPH) down here. Hopefully that *won't* happen!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/70/5487/gens_15_8_138dly5.png 

For what it's worth, the ECM 00z had a area of rapidly rising pressure over your broader region (darker blue) which does not necessarily reflect in the isobaric gradient, which in itself is likely down to being missed to the annoying 6hr increments. 

ECM still not caught on with their 12z op run . . . yet, thus exact track of ex-Kirk over the UK is yet to be nailed on. It's all 5 to 6 days away anyway so it's not worth nailing the flag to mast until Monday. 

Just inside the gale threshold in this part of the SE - not pleasant but still within the envelope of possible tracks. The rain is just as noteworthy, though, the best part of 2 inches of the stuff in a day!

Knowing my luck, it'll end up being a Folkestone only thing. 🤣 But a quick skeg through the latest model runs seems to show GFS being on its own with ex-Kirk just scraping past Kent while the other models are placing it well over France. I think it's likely to be more as a rain maker rather than wind being the main feature, I won't mind that as my house is pretty water tight and my road is on a slope leading to the harbour so drainage isn't an issue. It's just strong winds that I hate. 

Yes, my main concern has been the potential for a lot of rain and more flooding, rather than wind.  As you say, the trend has been to push the LP south and, as important, for it not to maintain intensity.

Also another hurricane for Florida potentially later in the week

In line with GFS. Not good

I don't remember NHC ever showing a storm track this far east, all the way to Belgium - EDIT- and now Denmark noon BST Thu (0800 in AST)

Some very unusual charts. They'll be showing Klingons on the starboard bow next.

As I said at the start, my concerns were more about the amount of rainfall, given how wet it’s been in the last month.  

It looks now like a typical battle between the GFS and ECM/UKMO, with the European models taking the LP across northern France whilst GFS brings it critically further north to affect the southern third of the UK, with copious amounts of rain.  Not sure we’ll know for another couple of days yet.