GFS Op - LP hanging around the Channel for most of the next week with pressure fairly high for Scotland. Mon 9th thisstarts to move NE-wards and links up with LP from Iceland - by Wed 11th 980mb off N Scotland with strong N-lies for Britain, and staying near Scotland to Sun 15th with HP a great distance away to W & E. New LP from Atlantic crosses Scotland (off E coast 980mb Tue 17th on its way NE-wards) and finally an area of HP 1020mb covering Britain Sat 21st.

ECM - similar to GFS but by Sun 15th the LP degenerates into a shallow trough covering all of Britain.

GEM - like GFS to Thu 12th then a rise of pressure affecting mostly the SE but with new LP threatening W Scotland

GEFS - from reasonably mild, even warm in the N,  to start with, a week of distinctly cold weather from Wed 11th before temps slowly recover to norm. In the S, frequent and often heavy rain for the next two weeks, away from the far S, mainly in two spells near 8th and 15th, in the N less heavy and not starting until Mon 9th.

Being really busy lately, I've not been taking much notice of the models - and instead looking at the Met Office site for forecasts, focusing on Friday (I'm at a works do at the racing) and the weekend.

For a few days, it's been showing warm/hot, dry and sunny Friday, temps dropping a touch on Saturday, then more cloudy with a chance of drizzle through Sunday.

I'd assumed south of us would be getting even better weather and was actually surprised to see Beast's comment above so looked wider.

Blimey!

The models have been struggling with that rain here - rain overnight (when they showed dry), dry now (when it showed rain), and so on. They got the mugginess right, mind you.

It looks like there will be quite a noticeable change for many of us next week... autumn arrives in style, with temperatures by day a good 6 or 7C down on current values down here, and dewpoints falling to the "fresh" range. 16C with a 5C dewpoint and a breeze next Wednesday will feel positively Baltic in comparison to what we've had for the past 7 or 8 weeks!

Manchester looks like seeing even more of a swing... 25C tomorrow (per GFS) down to a high of just 10C in a week's time.

From overcast 25C tomorrow as I don't expect sun as like today cold and overcast to decent sunny 13C next week. I am actually looking fowrard to see this mainly to see more sun than this lately as last seen sun that last more than 5 mins was last Friday so almost a week of overcast cold and muggy weather.

Not for me the conservatory will keep us warm despite not reaching 30C plus since last Friday due to overcast cold and muggy weather outside, next week I would see the return to low 30's as I had those when outside was 12C and sunny after over night frosts last April . Northerly sunny days are much welcome and can't wait for it.  Temps recovering to normal as per ensembles but thankfully no cloudy heat spikes again.

Not sure about a wash out at the Oval. If it had started today I don't think we'd be seeing much play but the next few days don't look too bad. Mind you, I see that the forecast varies quite widely depending on which app/website you use!  It is looking showery but fairly warm overall. 

GFS Op - starts with LP over S England and broad ridge of HP from Atlantic to Russia across Scotland, By Sun 8th the centre of this ridge collapses and LP from Iceland links to the LP in S England bringing down N/NW-lies over Britain into W Europe. By Fri 13th this complex has  moved N-wards, and HP from the SW links up with that from Russia to form a large area of HP over Norway 1035mb Mon 16th This HP persists to dominate Britain for that week before a shallow trough slips in from the NW on the following weekend.

ECM - similar to GFS though LP close to Scotland Fri 13th implies a day of gales before the HP establishes

GEM - differs sharply from GFS after Fri 13th with new LP from Atlantic Sat 14th 990 mb NI and another approaching on Mon 16th; little sign of significant HP nearer than Russia

GEFS - rather cool Wed 11th - Sun 15th, otherwise mean temps near norm though op & control warmer for a time after 15th. Rain in the S & SW more intermittent than shown yesterday but still big totals in some ens members; more continuous in the N & NE after Mon 9th but less extreme variation. 

GFS - current LP over S England slowly drifting NE to Norway where by Tue 10th it links with LP E of Iceland generating N-lies for Britain, slowly going round to the NW as the LP moves to Sweden Sun 15th and HP moves up from the SW.  This slowly grows (though Atlantic LPs brush NW Scotland at first) to become a broad area of HP covering Britain and extending E-wards, only by Mon 23rd beginning to slide SE-wards.

ECM - similar to GFS though the HP by Tue 17th is actually in separate areas, over Britain and over E Europe with a shallow trough lingering over Sweden

GEM - the joined-up LP shown in GFS for the 10th is localised over NE Scotland  before moving out into the Norwegian Sea and filling - but then reviving as above over Sweden.

GEFS - temp drops well below norm Tue 10th - Sun 15th in all runs, recovering and mean staying near norm though op run is warmer. Rain heavy in far S tomorrow but after that much drier than shown yesterday. Other than this everywhere have a scattering of predictions for small amounts of rain at any time.

Can't wait to see the back of this horrible cold cloudy and muggy weather out soon.  I see it down to -2C uppers here so mean glorious sunny days on the way and hope to boost sunshine hours which still over 12 hours maxmum to avoid a very dull Sept.  Temperatures not much different from yesterday 15-16C to 13-14c under a northerly but feel warmer due to sun out.

If was winter with 3-4 days of -10 to -12C uppers with stream of snow showers over here as we did well in 2021 snowy set ups.  Hope we see many northerlies to keep us dryer, sunnier, colder and some snow around than last wet winter.

GFS Op - LP over England linking with another East of Iceland; by Wed 11th these have produced a centre 975mb Norwegian Sea with strong N-lies for Britain, but by Fri 13th pushed away E-wards as HP comes to dominate Britain 1030mb Sat 14th onwards albeit with LP systems brushing N Scotland. This persists to Sun 22nd when trough moves down from the NW 990mb N Ireland Mon 23rd. By that time an intense hurricane is off Newfoundland which should introduce some uncertainty into the models.

ECM - similar to GFS though LP closer to Scotland instead of just brushing it, Sun 15th and Tue 17th, with brisk SW-lies for Britain rather than calm conditions.

GEM - closer to ECM than GFS but basically similar pattern

GEFS - heavy rain in S at first, something more persistent in N Scotland later but otherwise small amounts anywhere on random dates. Temps up to 8C below norm generally Wed 11th - Sun 15th (Inverness has its first snow row figure of the winter, 3/32 on Thu 12th). A quick rebound to above norm on Mon 16th and then settling to a mean a little above norm but with little agreement between ens members.

Where were charts like...

...for the past few months??

(Not all joy, mind; like when settled conditions have arrived through this summer but then been brushed aside within a few days by more unsettled crap, so it's the case with latest output)

Look like this strong 3 to 4 northerly is possible a proper pattern reset or re shuffles to something more typical British past patterns in our favour that we not see this year at all.  Today first time to see blue skies since end of August thanks to storms further south to clear up this muck.

GFS Op - the current thundery trough in S England filling and moving N as it becomes entangled with a developing LP from E Iceland, that deepening 985mb Bergen Wed 11th with NW-lies for Britain. Having delivered its package of cold air to Europe, the LP moves off N-wards and a ridge of HP from the SW moves in along the Channel trapping the cold  to the south. That ridge is 1030mb in the Channel Sat 14th, SW-lies for Scotland, and LPs passing rather close to the far NW. That ridge moves first N-ward to Scotland 1030mb Tue 17th with NE-lies for England and then back again to S England Sat 21st. The following week looks uncertain with HP hanging on the S but a major ex(?)-hurricane mid-Atlantic set to confuse the models.

ECM - similar to GFS but in final chart Thu 19th the ridge of HP over Scotland has become a significant centre off N Norway 1035mb, dominating all of Britain except for some weak E-lies along the Channel.

GEM - somewhat like GFS but the ridge of HP intensifies across England Tue 17th rather than moving N-wards

GEFS - good ens agreement on a cold spell (7 or 8C below norm) Wed 11th - Sun 15th, temps recovering sharply and then the mean remains slightly above norm to end of forecast but with increasing uncertainty. Perhaps a little warmer for Scotland around Wed 18th. Very little rain for the S, at random intervals; rather more likely in the N esp far NW, greatest chances Sun 15th for a few days and again a week later.

GEM more keen on high pressure over the south of the UK.

All would give some of the more traditional 'mists and mellow fruitfulness' that are beautiful in September.

One thing that did catch the eye right at the end of GFS was the movement towards the UK in the mid-Atlantic of what looks like a hurricane (more accurately a former hurricane, as I doubt it would still meet the criteria at that point). I don't think it's even formed yet, so an imaginative piece of modelling by GFS!

GFS Op - LP 980mb near Shetland tomorrow bringing N/NW-lies for Britain for a few days until HP pushes in from the SW 1030mb S England Sat 14th. This persists, developing a broad ridge to Scandinavia, until Sat 21st when the centre moves east and LP flirts with the western coasts of Britain. By Wed 25th there is a very intense hurricane in the W Atlantic.

ECM - similar to GFS; if anything the ridge of HP is narrower and further south to start with so Scotland gets SW-lies around Tue 17th, then it moves north so the Channel gets NE-lies Fri 20th

GEM - rather closer to ECM; then by Fri 20th the HP is centred just north of Scotland rather than ridging to Scandinavia emphasising the NE-lies.

GEFS - cold or very cold to Sat 14th (say, 7 or 8 C below norm) then abruptly back to norm and staying there for the south or somewhat above for the north until Thu 26th with better agreement of ens members than yesterday, though not perfect. Minimal amounts of rain in the south, not much more in the north, without any special focus (except for the NW where some is likely around 15th and 25th)

Temps looking 'pleasant' rather than 'warm' in light winds (from a NNE to E'ly source.

I'd take that!

Indeed, today the last semi-foul day down south at least with high pressure becoming nicely established. It’ll be lovely having some blue skies and to light up the warm hues on the leaves while the temperature drops to a comfortable sleeping level overnight. 

Yes thanks to the northerly blast that will change this horrible pattern we had for whole of 2024 so far.  Looking good as having my garden make over so having decent dry sunny days is a big help no mud around.    There was no northerly blast at all since Jan which brought sunny days so that 9 months wait.

Yep, an utterly uninteresting and boring year of Uk weather this year. Coolest since 2015, windy, plagued by cloud… which only served to drag up CET with muggy nights. Could have been even colder otherwise. 

Now we hope for some clear air from the pattern change, much better wind direction for this time of year to come. 

The GFS 12z is a picture. First up a cold NW'ly:

then the Azores High ridges in, linking with the Siberian High (already visible above), leading to something we've not seen in winter in years - a massive, blocking high stretching from Iceland to Finland, with ridging further east. NE'lies across the UK and a low near the south for added instability:

The whole lot then retrogresses, before eventually a low moves up from the south - a classic snowy breakdown (in January).

The odds of a repeat of this at the time of year when it would bring widespread snow are, of course, minimal. There is a theory that the weather has memory, i.e. patterns repeat after a while if the background drivers remain consistent, and indeed we saw it for the first half of summer, where the first halves of June *and* July were unusually cool compared to recent years. Will the pattern crop up again in winter? Perhaps, but I'd reckon late spring is more likely!

(The fun thing with all of this is that there's *so* much we still don't know. Why does the jet sometimes become slow-moving, leading to those repeated patterns, yet other times it suddenly becomes much more mobile? Why does an Atlantic hurricane sometimes dislodge things (i.e. earlier in the summer when we had some excruciatingly high dewpoints), yet other times it has no discernable effect? We have theories, and of course over on NetWeather the teleconnection folks would love to say they have the answers, but they don't - nobody does. For all our algorithms and data samples, we still can't crack the weather in 10 days' time with any great reliability. And I suspect that will continue to be the case for the rest of my life, at least!)