It's gone off on one, but the way things are these days you wouldn't bet against it! At least we'll avoid the party here, as by the weekend there'll be a stiff ENE'ly blowing. SSTs have fallen from their high earlier in August (briefly 22C) too, they're now 19C in the Thames Estuary.

September that normally allow us access to those temps that we been stolen away this summer with failures and failed forecasts will happen this time round to allow access to those temps? Today was supposed to be 26C only 21-23C due to nasty clouds.

GFS has been all over the place recently.  It has no idea what's happening next week. 

Do you keep record of those sea temps? I used to see low as 4C to 20C in summer on the Wetterzentrale sea temps format.  I used to view them daily when i was viewig models as the Thamas Estuary are the nearest water area to Epsom which is way inland from it but nearest point.

Still 26C down here and it's half six! The modelling couldn't have been better, the MetO raw had a max of 29 and the max was... exactly 29.0.

(I still suspect my weather station is feeding into the modelling too, as mine is the only one on WOW locally and as per the info I linked the other day, the Met Office are now using WOW data to improve their forecasts...)

I don't any more - I used to run a script every day which archived them, but stopped that years ago as archives became available online.

Meteociel has daily archives going back to 2006 here:

https://www.meteociel.fr/accueil/sst.php 

22C is on the high end of what you'd expect to show on the charts, though! Bear in mind the North Sea as a whole is very shallow as seas go (around 300ft), and the Thames Estuary is shallower still, hence it warms up and cools down very quickly.

Cheers and book marked it as it more clearer than WZ format.  I can also see Cyprus on Europe Map and seem a cooler pool over south side while hotter to the north and east.  Wondering where this cool pool enter the sea from inland hot Cyprus not like this on WZ format.

GFS Op - HP moving E-wards across Britain 1025 mb Sat 31st, replaced by a slow moving trough lying down the N Sea until Thu 5th. Then pressure rises from the SW soon forming an arc from SW of Ireland to N Scotland to Baltic to S Russia while a large area of slack LP affects England and the near continent through to Tue 10th. HP then retreats SW-wards but still fairly high over Britain (and an ex-hurricane waiting in the Atlantic).

ECM - the 'slow moving trough' sets up over the Irish Sea 1000mb Tue 3rd and affects Britain more generally. While the 'arc' of HP then sets up, it falls apart by Sun 8th and LP is back to W Scotland 1000mb Sun 8th with trough extending S-wards.

GEM - the initial HP moves across to Norway but is soon followed by another HP cell from the Atlantic so any trough is restricted to a small area 1015mb S England Mon 2nd. The HP then intensifies from the Atlantic end and covers Britain Thu 5th with no eastward extension, gradually moving  N to Scotland 1030mb Sat 7th but ridging S-wards. Two ex-hurricanes in the W Atlantic at this point.

GEFS - warm around Mon 2nd (v warm in SE, not so much in N) with good agreement but mean soon dropping back to norm and staying there but with some wide variations; hint of something warmer around Sat 7th esp in N. More rain than shown yesterday, small amounts in most runs from Mon 2nd but some very large spikes in a few runs later that week esp in S.

A wide range of outputs today!

The ECMWF has picked up this scenario and ran with it on the 12z and morning run. Hopefully the GEM is closer to the mark. 

That's what I've been thinking too. Anytime that a nationwide settled spell with HP on top of or very close to the British Isles has been suggested by ECM and other models in the 7-10 day range, it seems to have always been watered down in extent and duration or removed completely.

I think Ally is right about the cut-off low causing real difficulties for the models at the moment. Until the behaviour of this is sorted out one way or another, what happens next week is very much open to question.

GFS Op - HP 1025mb over N Sea tomorrow moving quite quickly E-wards followed by a shallow trough (less marked than shown yesterday) on Tue 3rd followed in turn by more HP from the SW. 1030mb N Ireland Fri 6th. This HP stays around, slowly shifting to Scotland 1030mb Sat 14th, just about fending off LP running through Norway earlier and encroaching from the SW later. Yesterday's forecast of a hurricane on the Atlantic has been cancelled.

ECM - only matches GFS to Tue 3rd, when the 'shallow' trough is deeper and cooler (1000mb N Ireland) and moves S to Biscay by Fri 6th with a broad ridge of HP from Scotland to Norway. This LP then returns N-wards, running up the W Coast, while HP (not LP!) is centred in the Baltic 1030mb Mon 9th with warm S-ly flow for Britain perhaps entraining a thundery low.

GEM - closer to GFS though the HP after Fri 6th retreats to NW  and by Sun 8th continental LP has moved up to 1010mb E Anglia

GEFS - warm or very warm for Mon 2nd, then after a slight dip quite warm again around Sat 7th in most runs. After this agreement between ens members breaks down but mean temp is near norm. Small amounts of rain at any time but some runs throwing up a few big peaks in the N at first and in the SW later.

WX maps: a more consistently zonal distribution of temperature than recently - cool for Scotland and Scandinavia, warm/hot for the Mediterranean, gradient between - but generally cooler for Europe N of the Alps in week 2. Rain outlook has also altered, now showing week 1 wet in E Spain, damp for W Europe, dry in the east; week 2 extends the area of heavier rain to cover most of W Europe including Britain.

GFS Op - HP currently near the N Sea moving east to N Russia 1030mb by Tue 3rd, replaced by shallow trough over Britain extending well south into France. New HP from the Atlantic moves in to form broad ridge W-E across Scotland 1030mb Fri 6th but with continental LP never far from the S Coast, persisting to Tue 10th. HP then collapses and LP over France links to LP near Iceland; a shallow trough at first but deepening by stages to 990mb Irish Sea Mon 16th with cold pool covering Britain. Ex-hurricanes stirring up the Atlantic in a week's time.

ECM - similar to GFS for a change but the HP by Tue 10th has removed to Iceland rather than collapsing, and a broad ridge to Denmark still dominating most of Britain.

GEM - like a dramatically accelerated version of GFS with HP not lasting after Fri 6th, the link-up of LP between France and Iceland in place by Sun 8th and the cold pool with LP centre in the Irish Sea by Mon 9th.

GEFS - warm or very warm around Tue 2nd and Mon 8th, possibly Sun 14th, with dips back to norm between. Small amounts of rain in many ens members at most times in the S, reducing to occasional but heavier spikes in only a few runs in the N specially now and near Sun 7th and 14th.

GFS Op - broad trough of LP drifting in from the W so by Tue 3rd Britain under unfocused LP between Atlantic and Scandinavian HP. This trough gathers itself and moves to France, by Friday 6th 1005mb Biscay while a ridge of HP sets up across Scotland extending to Scandinavia. This ridge declines and moves N-wards while the Biscayan LP re-invents itself and becomes a trough lying W-E from W Ireland to Denmark for w/b Mon 9th, typically 1005mb for a wide area . At the end of the week HP returns to Scotland from the north.

ECM - the trough on Tue 3rd is weaker and further east, and soon replaced by a large area of HP from the Atlantic which persists over all of Britain for that week. Then on Mon 9th it retreats to the Atlantic and LP from Norwegian Sea generates strong N-lies for all of Britain from Tue 10th.

GEM - like GFS at first but the trough from Mon 9th does not extend E-wards, rather linking with LP near Greenland 

GEFS - temp profile not too different from yesterday, warm now, a dip to norm and fairly warm again around Sat 7th, more marked in N, and then with fair agreement back to norm through to Tue 17th though outliers do occur. But there's a lot more rain, in some runs very heavy, especially in S Wed 5th - Fri 13th and in N now and Mon 9th - Fri 13th, less in far N