The Weather Outlook

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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
25 August 2024 08:50:06
I wonder if we could use it as a meterological definition of Autumn. Anyway seems we will have a closed cyclonic circulation at 10hpa and 1hpa by the end of today:

UserPostedImage

(https://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/web/en/2024/08/25/basis00/nhem/z010/24082518_2500.gif)

Its birth location is over northern siberia but it wil migrate northwards over the next few days and come to sit near the north pole. The polar vortex will be weak to begin with but will quickly strengthen. Itl be a while before things downwell into the troposphere but in about a month the polar vortex should become prominent in the troposphere which means the jet will ramp up and the atlantic will well and truly return! Get ready for wind, rain and westerly winds!

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

idj20
25 August 2024 09:29:18

I wonder if we could use it as a meterological definition of Autumn. Anyway seems we will have a closed cyclonic circulation at 10hpa and 1hpa by the end of today:

UserPostedImage

(https://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/web/en/2024/08/25/basis00/nhem/z010/24082518_2500.gif)

Its birth location is over northern siberia but it wil migrate northwards over the next few days and come to sit near the north pole. The polar vortex will be weak to begin with but will quickly strengthen. Itl be a while before things downwell into the troposphere but in about a month the polar vortex should become prominent in the troposphere which means the jet will ramp up and the atlantic will well and truly return! Get ready for wind, rain and westerly winds!

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Dude, we've already had all that in the past couple of days. 😂

Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
+1
Brian Gaze
25 August 2024 10:22:55
Red shows the current westerly component of winds at 10hPa

 Screenshot 2024-08-25 112050.jpg You have insufficient rights to see the content.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Windy Willow
25 August 2024 10:25:21

Red shows the current westerly component of winds at 10hPa

 Screenshot 2024-08-25 112050.jpg You have insufficient rights to see the content.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Your link isn't working! It says "You have insufficient rights to see this content" lol

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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
27 August 2024 06:57:11
Still extremely weak but now you can see the circulation across the whole arctic.

UserPostedImage

(https://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/web/en/2024/08/27/basis00/nhem/z010/24082706_2700.gif)

You can't really see much in the 10hpa wind charts yet, but we will in the next week.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Crepuscular Ray
27 August 2024 07:04:07
I'm not allowed to see any of those images, the links don't work 🤔  I get what you're saying but we are already into a wet and windy regime up here
Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Retron
27 August 2024 07:04:54
Zonal winds first went positive on Thursday, FWIW, a few days earlier than normal.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202408220000 

Leysdown, north Kent
Chunky Pea
27 August 2024 11:29:52
Hopefully a signal of a dark, wild autumn and winter ahead ⚡⚡
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Saint Snow
27 August 2024 12:49:35

Dude, we've already had all that in the past several months. 😂

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Corrected 😉

(being serious, it's felt like there's been one for months, predominantly located over western Greenland and N/NE Canada, spewing blobs of low pressure towards the UK (and those being deflected on a more southerly trajectory by persistently higher-than-normal pressure over the Barents & Kara Seas)

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

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