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Jiries
07 August 2024 09:19:04

Still a way off yet but I think the minimum temperatures overnight Sunday into Monday could be unsusually warm, looking at the output this morning.

Originally Posted by: marcus72 


This chart show 6pm so the peak of the 20's already leaving so earlier charts would indicate 35C London and low 30's  in the midlands to midday  to early afternoon before dropping off as it move away.  
Rob K
07 August 2024 09:30:25

Yes I noticed the 18Z brought 24C 850s across the south briefly but the modelled 2m temps were only 31C, which seems odd.

Reminds me of a fairly recent occasion when we had 850s well above 20C but with very depressed 2m temps. When was that?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Can anyone remember the occasion I am talking about? It was within the last few years, I am sure. We had very high 850s but some kind of cold low-level incursion that kept temps down to the high 20s, if I recall.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
07 August 2024 09:36:06

Can anyone remember the occasion I am talking about? It was within the last few years, I am sure. We had very high 850s but some kind of cold low-level incursion that kept temps down to the high 20s, if I recall.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I remember it, but couldn't tell you what year it was - I'm thinking 8-10 years ago. We had a feed off the North Sea, and it advected a very shallow layer of cooler air over the country, saving us from what, at the time, were exceptionally high 850s. (We've become a bit blasé when it comes to 20C 850s now, but 10+ years ago they were almost unheard of).

I also remember someone from the States, or Canada, calling it natural air-conditioning, and indeed it was. Sadly from my POV any future incursions of 20s, or even 25s as in 2022, have come with southerlies or SE'lies, meaning we get the full brunt of it.

Leysdown, north Kent
ozone_aurora
07 August 2024 09:43:02

Weird charts from very cold north west to hot south east so in reality it won’t happened at all would be higher in NW and more widespread hot temperatures. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Yes, it look OTT.
Crepuscular Ray
07 August 2024 10:17:41

Mid 30Cs not off the table on Monday.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Can only see 20 C here 🤔🤭
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
warrenb
07 August 2024 10:44:02
Well next week in the SE looks to start hot then cool down to just above average with little if any rain. Very useable.
haggishunter
07 August 2024 16:29:42

Can only see 20 C here 🤔🤭

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


Probably 12c up here! 🙈
fairweather
07 August 2024 16:29:54
Still no significant rain showing for the parched south east. Just a couple of mm here in the past three weeks now. Ground doing its usual cracking, dust on the cars and grass and tree leaves starting to suffer. 
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Retron
07 August 2024 16:36:11

Still no significant rain showing for the parched south east. Just a couple of mm here in the past three weeks now. Ground doing its usual cracking, dust on the cars and grass and tree leaves starting to suffer. 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Much the same here - 4mm in 3 weeks, 0.4mm in the last week. As you say, dust on the cars, cracks in the ground, parched ground, yellow grass... the trees here are coping well at the moment, but give it another week and they'll start to suffer.

Funny how these things work... looking at the GFS precip charts these past 2 weeks has been like a mirage:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.png 

Dry 1st week, loads of rain 2nd week... and by the time week 2 is week 1, it's back to square one.
Leysdown, north Kent
bledur
07 August 2024 18:27:22

Still no significant rain showing for the parched south east. Just a couple of mm here in the past three weeks now. Ground doing its usual cracking, dust on the cars and grass and tree leaves starting to suffer. 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Still very lush here although hedges are showing yellowing and browning but that is normal in nearly mid august. Groundwater must be still fairly high as the winterbourne near here is still running a trickle and the well in the garden is still quite full.
Tim A
07 August 2024 19:33:07
Sure it was recently maybe 2022 a few weeks before the record ? Hot air approached from the east therefore it wasn't hot at the surface due to the North Sea cooling the lower levels of air, though Porthmadog etc may have seen low 30's I seem to recall. 

 
Can anyone remember the occasion I am talking about? It was within the last few years, I am sure. We had very high 850s but some kind of cold low-level incursion that kept temps down to the high 20s, if I recall.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Nick Gilly
07 August 2024 22:04:21
It was late June 2019. I remember it because it produced a big tropo lift on the FM broadcast band (I am a long-distance radio enthusiast). The very hot airmass was cooled at the surface passing over the cold North Sea resulting in a marked temperature inversion which was responsible for the anomalous VHF propagation. Normally in the summer the inversions burn off in the heat of the day, but not on this occasion.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 August 2024 07:25:07
WX temps: for week 1 rather warm for NW Europe from SE England up to Finland (though as this is average for the week, any extreme on Monday doesn't show strongly) but cool weather not far away in N Scotland and W Norway. For week 2, a dramatic cool-down across the whole area with any hot weather banished to south of the Alps. A little warmth still for SE England but the rest of Britain cool, Norway and Switzerland actually quite cold for the time of year. Less rain for Britain than shown in yesterday's forecast, though not entirely dry; for both weeks the heaviest rain in an arc  N Scotland east to Scandinavia and south to Switzerland.

GFS Op - Current LP near N Scotland fills and the action moves to the SW where LP developing over Biscay Sun 11th combined with HP brings up a hot plume at least for E Britain and lasting all of 48 hours. By Tue 13th the remnants of hurricane Debby have mixed with the N Atlantic circulation and produced new LP off W Scotland 980mb with SW-lies (Press reports quoting MetO that Debby is responsible for the plume not borne out by this chart). This LP then moves to N of Scotland persisting for a week or so with winds from directions between SW and NW, troughs moving across Britain from the W esp Sun 18th. At this time a new hurricane appears off the US East coast and intensifies in Mid Atlantic preceded by a ridge of HP with maybe warm and dry conditions for Thu 22nd onwards.

ECM - plume persists a day longer but then goes in the other direction with the LP near Scotland (as shown on GFS) closer and deepening 985mb Orkney Thu 15th before reverting to W-lies, LP to the N, HP to the S. Again something of a trough Sun 18th augmented by remnants of Debby.

GEM - similar to above though the LP near Scotland on Thu 15th moves into the N Sea and produces a spell of N/NW, looking rather cool

GEFS - sharp brief hot spell Mon 12th in the S, less marked further N & W, after which all areas have a long period with temps a little below norm. Rain heavy in the N around the 12th, but dry in the SE until the 13th, and then some rain in most areas for the rest of the forecast period; not a great deal in op & control but big spikes in some runs. Always heavier in N & W.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Rob K
08 August 2024 08:43:30

It was late June 2019. I remember it because it produced a big tropo lift on the FM broadcast band (I am a long-distance radio enthusiast). The very hot airmass was cooled at the surface passing over the cold North Sea resulting in a marked temperature inversion which was responsible for the anomalous VHF propagation. Normally in the summer the inversions burn off in the heat of the day, but not on this occasion.

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 


The 29th certainly had very high 850s:
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2019/avn/AVN_1_2019062900_2.png 

But was also pretty hot on the ground with 34.0C reached at Heathrow. SO I am not sure that is the occasion I am thinking of.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
White Meadows
08 August 2024 14:17:54
Looks like Autumn arrives next week, capping off what has been one of the worst summers in the past 30 years.
How will it bode for winter, you can’t help wonder?
Ally Pally Snowman
08 August 2024 18:48:49
Absolutely roasting ECM 12z , 22c 850s into the South at midday Monday.  You'd think that would be 35c ish if sunny.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
08 August 2024 19:49:02

The 29th certainly had very high 850s:
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2019/avn/AVN_1_2019062900_2.png 

But was also pretty hot on the ground with 34.0C reached at Heathrow. SO I am not sure that is the occasion I am thinking of.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Yep 28-29 June 2019 had some very high 850s. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx?year=2019&month=Jun&dom=28&var=tmp®ion=Eur&level=850&hour=00 


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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Jiries
08 August 2024 21:25:33

Absolutely roasting ECM 12z , 22c 850s into the South at midday Monday.  You'd think that would be 35c ish if sunny.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Horrible apple app say no to 35 for London only 31  and warm 27C here  more likely 4C undercooked temps for both locations.  
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2024 07:12:06
WX temps: in week 1 warm across NW Europe from England to the Baltic, quite hot towards the south of this area but markedly cooler for Russia, Norway and N Scotland. In week 2, not as much cooling as shown yesterday still pleasantly warm for NW Europe and hot in SW France, but nevertheless cool further north - N Scotland (again!) and Scandinavia away from the Baltic. Rain for both weeks around the N Atlantic and W Scandinavia, some in N Italy; S England and France becoming rather dry in week 2 (that is a new development).

GFS Op: apart from the anomaly of an LP developing mid-Atlantic tomorrow and running N-wards up the W coast over the next few days, promoting the hot plume for E Britain, the general pattern is of LP to the N or NW of Scotland with winds from a NW/W/SW-ly direction, often quite breezy. This area of LP is reinforced by the remains of Debby Tue 13th, and then by the remains of the next ex-hurricane (currently just approaching the Antilles) Thu 22nd. From time to time this LP pushes troughs S-wards across Britain e.g. on Fri 16th, Sat 24th which move away E-wards,  but not really affecting the S Coast where pressure remains fairly high.

ECM: similar to GFS but add another trough Tue 20th; and the next hurricane, still near the US at the end of this model's run, is much more potent and by no means 'ex'.

GEM: similar to GFS

GEFS: in the S, very hot for all ens members Mon 12th, one day only, back to norm or a little below through to Tue 20th; then the mean improves a little mainly because of rather warm predictions by op & control, not matched by most other ens members. Small amounts of rain from Tue 13th onwards though one or two runs have occasional large spikes. Similar temp profile in the N but the top values are much lower, and rain somewhat more persistent with a peak on Tue 13th. For N & W more generally, a period of heavier rain likely around Mon 19th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2024 08:02:58
As DEW says, treat the GFS Ops and Control run with caution as they are not representative of the whole run, but average pressure is a few mb higher than yesterday in general as the depressions take a more northerly course. More of a north-west/south-east split than generally unsettled, which was how it showed 24 hours ago
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Retron
09 August 2024 08:36:40
Monday looks like utter cack here, to use a technical term: MetO raw now has 33C and a SE'ly breeze, so there'll be no escaping it *and* anyone with windows open will end up with a house near body temperature!

I would expect a 34 or 35 somewhere in East Anglia given the way things currently look... ICON and MetO have 22C 850s, GFS sneaks in a 23C.

The reason for the extra "oomph", btw, is because there are now two thrusts of stupidly high 850s from the south. The first bubbles up in the morning on Monday, there's a brief lull, then a second push appears into mid afternoon, as the approaching front from the west pulls up the daytime-heated air from France.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/leys0.jpg 
UserPostedImage

EDIT: The daytime max monthly mean so far is 25.4, and the way things are going it'll still be that high by mid-month. That's some sustained warmth, but it's gone under most people's radar! (And as we all know, 2.5C below normal for 2 weeks would engender howls of annoyance...)
Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
09 August 2024 09:57:35
6Z GFS looks much more promising for my week in Cornwall - high pressure nosing in very nicely and quite warm by the end of week 2.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Windy Willow
09 August 2024 12:56:56
The Met. forecast, for my area, on Monday is showing 32c whilst the BBC forecast is showing 30c and the temperature isn't expected to drop below 20c until after midnight. So a hot day and night for the Fenlands, possibly.
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
Zubzero
09 August 2024 18:20:34

Looks like Autumn arrives next week, capping off what has been one of the worst summers in the past 30 years.
How will it bode for winter, you can’t help wonder?

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Apart from lack of storms it's been about average overall here. Can't think of how it's the worse summer in 30 years unless you use some strange criteria to judge it¿
Matty H
09 August 2024 21:44:17

Apart from lack of storms it's been about average overall here. Can't think of how it's the worse summer in 30 years unless you use some strange criteria to judge it¿

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


I’ll field this. It hasn’t been. Fact. 

That’s it. 
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