The warming trend is evident across the entire planet, and the British Isles is warming at a similar rate.

The southerly jet can often benefit the north-west of Scotland, as at present, although, as usually the case with Scotland, the devil is in the detail. For a view of what the Outer Hebrides have been like over the past days, take peek at the photo (taken by my son) I've posted in the "User photo gallery". (As I'm about to head out there, I'm feeling reasonably happy....)

The warming trend in itself has never been in doubt - for me its the contribution to that trend made by several contenders -

 Amongst these -   

                           The atmospheres' changing CO2 content

                           The changing output of the sun

                           The changing position of the Earth relative to the sun

                            The changing global synoptics and the causes thereof

                            The Gulfstream strength (and other ocean currents) and direction across the Atlantic and the returning cold current

                            etc, etc.

Retron makes an excellent point and example with this -

            ('...... there are some background drivers at work and I'm not sure we understand them partially, let alone fully.)

The effect of changes in the sun’s output is minimal, except in terms of effects on global circulation.  

The Milankovich Cycles state that we should be in a cooling phase, potentially dipping back to another Ice Age. Clearly we’re not cooling.

Global Synoptics respond to the various factors affecting the atmosphere.

The NAD is weakening, which should result in cooler temperatures as less heat is transported poleward.

I have a mountain bike event up in Yorkshire in a couple of weeks. The last two years have been properly soaking - virtually unrideable (indeed last year we called it a day halfway round). Even the long drought of July 2022 broke the night before and turned it into a mudbath. I don't want to see three on the trot. Don't want it hot but DRY for a few days before would e most welcome.

Quote:

The effect of changes in the sun’s output is minimal, except in terms of effects on global circulation.

So........ the suns minimal output changes has an effect on global circulation.

 I would have thought and others have researched to determine that global circulation was extremely important in terms of world temperature, especially when evidence and records have shown that without the Scandinavian High in winter, the North Atlantic Jetstream takes over and rushes warm Atlantic air into N.Europe and Asia and especially The Arctic Basin and which circumstances describe the weather here for the last forty years. The global temperature is of course connected and the correlation determined a couple of decades ago or so.

The Milankovich cycles do have a big effect but of course there isn't a specific date at which effects take place - there's plenty of time left.

Post-2003, August has usually been the shittest month for settled and warm weather. 

We've in Devon the first week of August...

Push back mean the models is extremely unreliable to use or view them, useless of them and all rubbish.

You have better chance to cycle event in Santa Claus Village, Arctic Circle, Finland as it currently 25C and nearly sunny.   At least even in the Arctic circle regions is following a SUMMER season and adhering it very well.  

It is currently 18°C in Rovaniemi, I suspect the WS/thermometer exposure means that the temperature readings are too high in the direct sunshine. Still no real sign of anything warm, settled and sunny beyond the occasional day. Having said that anything is bound to be better than it is here today with strong NNWly winds, persistent at times heavy rain and temperatures stuck at around 12°C.

Based on what output?

GFS 12Z finishes with a fat LP right over the UK, which would give me yet another Yorkshire washout.

GFS Op - to start with, HP for W Britain and LP over the N Sea but a general decrease in pressure by Mon 16th. New LP running NE-wards past the Hebrides Wed 17th, pushing a brief ridge of HP ahead of itself; but then changing direction, turning S-wards and converting to LP for all of Britain Sat 20th. Only after that does HP move in from the SW and establish 1020mb England Tue 23rd for the week - perhaps something thundery moving up from France Sat 27th.

ECM - rather like GEM but by Sun 21st pressure is recovering quickly and LP has retreated N-wards

GEM - Keeps the new LP on the 17th (see GFS above) out near Iceland so pressure quite high for Britain next week; but that LP in the end does move in and cover Britain Sat 20th, though not affecting S England as much as shown in GFS.

GEFS - cool to Mon 15th, then mean and most ens members close to norm through to 27th. Op & control on the cooler side later on. Rain for the S & SW most likely Fri 12th and Tue 16th otherwise relatively little; Scotland & NW England dry for a few days then some rain appearing on many days to 27th; E England likely to see a little rain at any time.

I’ve given up on this summer now - it’s clear that we’re not going to get more than a couple of warm, sunny days in a row. I don’t even care about heatwaves - just a sustained period of pleasant average conditions would be fine, but even that is asking for too much.

So do I as now daylight drawing in and we didn't felt those long day light was usable this year.  Agreed about average as here is 23C this month had not reached yet.  First time I see some rain over Santa Claus village and really surprised the temperatures remain so warm 16C in a Arctic circle area under the rain which here should be low 20's in any rainfall not low 10's.  Hurricane Beryl wasn't able to destroy this prolonged boring pattern so far.

GFS Op - Ridge of HP to west of Britain steadily dissipating as pressure falls widely across Britain; by Fri 19th LP localised 1005mb Rockall. Pressure remains slack and on the low side for Europe as a whole. The LP moves off to Norway and while the Azores HP makes a tentative move towards France, LP is back from the NW a week later, 1000mb Rockall Thu 25th.  It then looks as if a repeat performance is scheduled for the following week.

ECM (mostly yesterday's 12z, can't wait for download today) Not unlike GFS but Friday's LP less localised and slower to move away.

GEM - also agrees with GFS, but the LP returns from the NW earlier than Thu 25th, indeed getting quite close to Scotland on the last frame of the sequence on Mon 22nd.

GEFS - temps very close to norm in N but  more variation in S, likely cooler now and again Sat 20th and (possibly) Sat 27th; a little warmer in between these minima. Briefly dry in the SE around Thu 18th, rather wet in Scotland around Sat 20th, otherwise small amounts of rain at any time

ECM does at least look a bit more optimistic for next weekend than the GFS does.

Major heat building in southern Spain next week but it can't even get into France let alone up towards the UK. The southerly jet swipes it away and keeps the hot weather bottled up to the south and south east. 

It's one of the best runs in the past few months. Not plumey-hot, but much more settled.

Starts off the middle of next week when a little high inflates over Germany, bringing a nice warm flow over the SE. Low pressure to the NW means Scotland/NI miss out.

The high  and drifts north a little north before dissipating as the AH ridges strongly, covering the whole of the UK by the end of next Saturday. That low to the NW has filled and moved away.

The ridged AH then splits through the following week and the northern portion centres over the Norway coast before expanding to cover Scandinavia (ridging WSW'ward enough to cover the UK) and introducing an easterly drift, which takes us to the end of the run, with the flow more unstable across the south as pressure declines over Central Europe.

It's a bit of an outlier with little ENS support - but not a million miles away from the broad ECM & GEM evolutions (both show that high over Germany'ish next week, then the AH ridging towards/over the UK - but ECM run ends before we can see if it develops like the GFS run, whilst GEM has that low to the NW bolstered by a further low then toppling the ridging AH)

But every decent spell has to start somewhere!!

It's a lot better than the 0Z, for sure. But there were a lot of runs as good or better a week or so ago, and they never got any closer.

They did and that's what worries me. Often there in the outer reaches of the GFS but never getting close to even the semi-reliable. Just like in winter, chasing the end of the rainbow.

After last month’s autumnal feel it’s all pretty shocking really:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

At least they cannot kept falsify their lies so called above average nonsense as it was cold Spring and summer this year.   Autumn for sure it will be above average and next winter well above average so meto will rightly say that and I am with it.