The summers of the 80s were pretty cool too in general terms, as far as I recollect. The only summers of that decade which produced sustained spells of heat were 1983, 1984 and 1989. Warm/very warm summers became more common in the 1990s and more so since the start of this century.

Out of interest, does anyone know what the last below average summer for CET was before 2015? Something tells me that it was either during the 80s or possibly in 1993 or 1998.

Below average for summer as a whole? That (for 91-20 values) would be 2014, and before then all of 2007-2012. For 61-90 values it would be 2011 and 2012. 2011 was the last time all three months were below the 91-20 norms for each month.

I'm surprised by that as I always thought that 2014 was quite a decent summer here.

Clearly, actual data (unlike far too many politicians) never lies though, and it can be very surprising what can be deduced from that.

It was here in Ireland too, very warm, humid summer but an extraordinary amount of high quality thunderstorms to compensate. My record rain rate of 281mm/h from that summer still holds to this day. 

It was a decent summer here too, John. It was actually very hot here for a few days during the last week of the month after the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow got underway on the 23rd.

As mentioned above, the weather was somewhat poorer during August thanks to ex-Hurricane Bertha at the start of the month which put us into a cooler and more unsettled pattern until late in the month and then the September was pretty decent. For me, it was one of the three best summers of the last decade, along with 2013 and 2018.

 Today , very uncertain with Low Pressure looking more dominant.

Yep, annoying and typical. Now I know how the oddities that get excited about a frost that doesn’t happen, feel

GFS Op - shallow LP drifting across Britain from SW to NE this week, bringing some warmer air with it, transient HP for the weekend followed by a repeat performance next week, and then again the week after though the LP Wed 24th is further west and may bring up a plume from the south.

ECM - starts like GFS, but (like GEM) the weekend HP is mainly for the N with LP 1005mb hanging around in the southern N Sea. Then in the following week another shallow LP does move in from the SW but fills quickly and pressure is rising generally Wed 17th (unlike both GFS and GEM)

GEM - some resemblance to GFS, but next weekend's HP is mainly for Scotland with continental LP affecting the SE; the the 'repeat performance' involves a deeper depression and further north 995mb Hebrides Wed 17th

GEFS -  above norm briefly midweek, then cooler, back to norm around Mon 15th and the majority of ens members 2-4C above norm (but staying near norm in the N) by Mon 22nd. Rain at intervals for this week, better chances of drier later esp in S & E but staying damp in the NW.

WX temp charts - week 1 still on the cool side for Britain and NW Europe but warmth spreading north in week 2, somewhat more so than shown yesterday with even N Scotland getting back to norm. The North Atlantic still cold from Iceland to Norway, uncomfortably close. Roasting hot around the Black Sea. Rain generally N of the Alps in week 1, this wet area drifting N into Scandinavia in week 2 but becoming dry from Biscay up into S England. Hint of thunderstorms for E Spain.

GFS Op - current LP drifting NE-wards and at least for the weekend being replaced by HP over Scotland though for the SE, LP still uncomfortably close over Holland. New shallow LP then quite quickly  crosses England from the SW Mon 14th but  then for the week through to Fri 19th Britain is under a broader area of HP. This gets pushed S-wards by LP moving W across Shetland but soon resumes strongly for the following week (to Thu 25th).

ECM- like GFS up to Tue 16th but the 'shallow LP' heads for NE Scotland and the 'broader area of HP' gets stuck over France, later moving towards Germany, a hint of a plume by Thu 18th, and LP out to the west rather than near Shetland

GEM - compared to GFS, makes more of the LP over Holland and also of the LP on Mon 14th which is still present as a 1005mb depression over England on Wed 16th, HP from the SW then starts to build from Fri 19th and there is no sign of LP developing near Shetland.

GEFS - on the cool side to Mon 14th, back to norm thereafter with a tendency for the ens members to show warmer from Mon 21st. Rain currently, for the S also likely around Sun 13th with bits and pieces thereafter while Britain from the Midlands N-wards misses out on the 13th but may instead get some around Fri 19th. 

Read those in NW as I don't post or registered that but I notice any teleconnection posts like MJO, etc at the end result we still get same Autumn weather pattern no matter what, LP always find a way to sneak in and sit over us for months.  Talking about so call EL Nino to La Nina nonsense we still get the same Autumnal pattern non-stop.   Last winter in NW Mod thread there was lot of talk about we will get good winter due to so-called teleconnection but ended up same Autumn pattern.   

GFS Op - flabby LP initially moving NE but circling back to affect SE England by Sat 13th while Scotland gets the best of a  ridge of HP. New LP moving in from SW and up to Scotland by Wed 17th, ushering in a spell of W-lies with LP passing close to N Scotland Sat 20th and Mon 22nd, troughs extending further S, before the Azores high asserts itself to reach Britain Thu 25th. But  even that looks as if it may sink S-wards soon after.

ECM - somewhere between GFS and GEM

GEM - compared to GFS, the LP Sat 13th is in the N Sea nearer E Anglia and the HP more for W Britain; then after Wed 17th a fairly strong N-S ridge of HP covers Britain with little sign of any W-lies developing

GEFS - cool to Mon 15th then near norm for a while but with quite a number of ens members incl op & control promising moderate warmth from Mon 22nd. Rain for S England around Fri 12th and (less likely) Tue 16th, for Scotland rain now and then possibly Fri 19th; for N England most likely Wed 17th, everywhere some small amounts at other times.

GEFS average charts still show the Azores high staying at its home. 

Taking the GFS as an example it's a 'flat' pattern with repeated flabby Lows meandering around before a weak ridge at the end of the month.

Will August save us? I wouldn't bet on it 😩

Funny, I think it's a pleasant thing... although temperatures will be above average today down here despite the jet stream staying far to the south of the UK.

That southerly-tracking jet is fascinating. It didn't really help us coldies in winter (although it delivered exceptional cold to our NE) and in the summer it's not helping heat-hounds... but as I'm not one, it's a-ok with me! 👌

The reason that southerly tracking jet is fascinating, incidentally, is that it's exceptionally unusual to see one persist for almost a year... there are some background drivers at work and I'm not sure we understand them partially, let alone fully.

Yes, we're now almost halfway through the meteorological summer and the big question from that has to be "what summer?" as we haven't even had much of a summer up until now other than just the odd day here and there when the temperatures have been fairly reasonable and even with that, we still haven't been able to come even close to getting even a single completely sunny day here.

I will be travelling down to Hawick on Tuesday 23 July for a couple of weeks to spend some time with my family and although that is still a very long time away as regards to the model output, it is going to take one heck of an improvement in the overall pattern for us to get anything that comes even remotely close to some decent weather for that and at the moment, the omen's are already not looking good for that.

To me, our best hope of getting any improvement in the overall pattern will be if there is an ex-hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean which takes a track to our west and north in such a way that this then promotes a build of high pressure either right over the UK or just to our east.

However, that is currently looking unlikely to happen any time soon, especially as the Atlantic Hurricane season appears to gone very quiet again after Hurricane Beryl.

It would be interesting to try and go through archives to see when, and how often, such a prolonged southerly tracking jet had happened before. As you say Darren, something is driving it and whilst I'm not a fan of pattern matching, would be interesting to know what weather patterns appeared after such cases in the past.

You should come and live in Edinburgh for a year Retron and become accustomed to a cool, dull climate. You'd be so pleased to get back to the SE 😁

PS I'm not after great heat as such, blue sky and sunshine will do 🙂

Has the PV remained unusually organised this summer? 

That area of low heights seems persistent in a way I don't recall in previous summers - and it seems particularly persistent over Greenland/NE Canada. 

The result is a succession of spin-off lows spawning from it to head right for the UK. 

In between them, the AH is actually ridging towards the UK. And at times, that ridging is splitting to create a new high that then sits over the UK (and you think 'Yay! summer's coming'). The problem we have is that it's not staying around, but quickly moving off ENE/NE'wards then planting itself over the Baltic/Finland/Svalbaard before declining... then being replaced by another. I'm presuming that The Baltic states and Finland are having great summers so far.

Indeed.

Some months ago I likened these recent associated North Atlantic synoptics to those of the 50's, 60's, and 70's.

As you are no doubt aware, I've never been comfortable with the warming trend of the recent decades being caused solely by CO2. The persistence of the southerly tracking jetstream suggests to me that if this continues, winters could well trend cooler (colder?) with influential high pressure over Scandanavia or Greenland in winter becoming more common with summers a mixed bag as usual.

I agree with you about some background drivers not being '....partially let alone fully understood'.